The Effect of Childhood Family Size on Fertility in Adulthood: New Evidence From IV Estimation

Explaining Residential Clustering of Large Families

Numerous studies have shown that fertility behavior is spatially clustered. In addition to pure contextual effects, two causal mechanisms could drive this pattern. First, neighbors may influence each other's fertility and second, family size may influence decisions about where to live. In this study we examine these two potential causal mechanisms empirically, using the sex composition of the two eldest children and twin births as instrumental variables (IVs) for having a third child. We estimate how having a third child affects three separate outcomes: the fertility of neighbors; the propensity to move houses; and the likelihood of living in a family-friendly neighborhood with many children. We draw residential and childbearing histories (2000-2018) from Norwegian administrative registers (N ~ 167,000 women). Individuals' neighborhoods are defined using time-varying geocoordinates for place of residence. We identify selective moves as one plausible causal driver of residential clustering of large families. This study contributes to the understanding of fertility and relocation, and to the literature on the social interaction effects of fertility, by testing the relevance of yet another network: that of neighbors.

Does Childbearing Affect Cognitive Health in Later Life? Evidence From an Instrumental Variable Approach

Cognitive decline is a widespread concern as populations grow older. However, population aging is partly driven by a decrease in fertility, and family size may influence cognitive functioning in later life. Prior studies have shown that fertility history is associated with late-life cognition, but whether the relationship is causal remains unclear. We use an instrumental variable approach and data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe to examine whether having three or more versus two children affects late-life cognition. Parents often prefer to have at least one son and one daughter. We thus exploit the sex composition of the first two children as a source of exogenous variation in the probability of having three or more children. Results indicate that having three or more versus two children has a negative effect on late-life cognition. This effect is strongest in Northern Europe, perhaps because higher fertility decreases financial resources yet does not improve social resources in this region. Future studies should address the potential effects of childlessness or having one child on late-life cognition and explore the mediating mechanisms.

Preferences for a mixed-sex composition of offspring: A multigenerational approach

Parents with two boys or two girls are more likely to have a third child than those with a 'sex mix'. However, little is known on whether these 'mixed-sex preferences' extend beyond the nuclear family. This study leverages the random variation in sex at birth to assess whether the sex of nieces and nephews, in combination with own children, matters for fertility choices. Using three-generational data from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I show that extended families (including grandparents, their children, and their grandchildren) are collectively more likely to have three or more grandchildren when lacking sex mix, whether the first two grandchildren are siblings or cousins. I explore the pathways for these offspring sex preferences, finding support for a preference for an uninterrupted line of male descendants. This multigenerational approach also contributes a new estimation strategy that causally estimates the effects of family sizes on outcomes beyond fertility.

How Does Birth Order and Number of Siblings Affect Fertility? A Within-Family Comparison Using Swedish Register Data

This study examines how the sibling constellation in childhood is associated with later fertility behaviour of men and women in Sweden. Administrative register data are used to investigate how birth order affects completed fertility, how the number of siblings and birth order jointly affect completed fertility, and in both cases if there are gender differences in these relationships. Our data consist of all fully biologically related siblings in Sweden whose mothers were born between 1915 and 1935 (the younger generation is born primarily in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s; N = 1,472,813). To study the direct effect of birth order on fertility, sibling comparison models are applied, while to analyse the joint effect of number of siblings and birth order, the sample was stratified by birth order. Results show that higher birth order has a negative effect on completed fertility for women; hence, earlier-born women show overall higher fertility than later-born women. Parity transitions indicate that later-born women are less likely to have two or more children, while no overall gradient for men can be found. The number of siblings is more positively associated with completed fertility for firstborn than for later-born individuals. We conclude that the position in the family of origin can be seen as an additional factor that influences fertility, although effect sizes are rather small.

Is the Family Size of Parents and Children Still Related? Revisiting the Cross-Generational Relationship Over the Last Century

In most developed countries, the fertility levels of parents and children are positively correlated. This article analyzes the strength of the intergenerational transmission of family size over the last century, including a focus on this reproduction in large and small families. Using the large-scale French Family Survey (2011), we show a weak but significant correlation of approximately 0.12–0.15, which is comparable with levels in other Western countries. It is stronger for women than men, with a gender convergence across cohorts. A decrease in intergenerational transmission is observed across birth cohorts regardless of whether socioeconomic factors are controlled, supporting the idea that the family of origin has lost implicit and explicit influence on fertility choices. As parents were adopting the two-child family norm, the number of siblings lost its importance for having two children, but it continues to explain lower parity and, above all, three-child families. This suggests that the third child has increasingly become an “extra child” (beyond the norm) favored by people from large families.

Intergenerational Transmission of Multipartner Fertility

Using data from administrative registers for the period 1970–2007 in Norway and Sweden, we investigate the intergenerational transmission of multipartner fertility. We find that men and women with half-siblings are more likely to have children with more than one partner. The differences are greater for those with younger versus older half-siblings, consistent with the additional influence of parental separation that may not arise when one has only older half-siblings. The additional risk for those with both older and younger half-siblings suggests that complexity in childhood family relationships also contributes to multipartner fertility. Only a small part of the intergenerational association is accounted for by education in the first and second generations. The association is to some extent gendered. Half-siblings are associated with a greater risk of women having children with a new partner in comparison with men. In particular, maternal half-siblings are more strongly associated with multipartner fertility than paternal half-siblings only for women.

Children and Careers: How Family Size Affects Parents' Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run

We estimate the effect of family size on various measures of labor market outcomes over the whole career until retirement, using instrumental variables estimation in data from Norwegian administrative registers. Parents’ number of children is instrumented with the sex mix of their first two children. We find that having additional children causes sizable reductions in labor supply for women, which fade as children mature and even turn positive for women without a college degree. Among women with a college degree, there is evidence of persistent and even increasing career penalties of family size. Having additional children reduces these women’s probability of being employed by higher-paying firms, their earnings rank within the employing firm, and their probability of being the top earner at the workplace. Some of the career effects persist long after labor supply is restored. We find no effect of family size on any of men’s labor market outcomes in either the short or long run.

Is fertility associated with the number of siblings of the couple? Evidence from India

The influence of family on an individual's fertility has long been an important topic of interest in fertility research. Although studies conducted mostly in developed countries found a significant bearing of fertility of the parents on the fertility of the children, there is a lack of formal research around this topic in India. The present study analyses the effect of sibling size of husband and wife on the completed family size of women using information of 5506 ever-married women aged 45-49 years incorporated in the India Human Development Survey-II (2011-2012). Inferential statistics, bivariate, Chi-square and Poisson regression were used as the methods of analysis. The unadjusted estimates of Poisson regression reveal sibling size of women (IRR: 1.02; p < 0.001) and husband (IRR: 1.01; p < 0.001) have a positive correlation with the completed family size of women. However, in the adjusted model, the effect of sibling size especially of husband diminishes gradually in the presence of socio-economic covariates of the women.