Ruth W, Lockhart R. SARS-CoV-2 transmission in university classes.
NETWORK MODELING ANALYSIS IN HEALTH INFORMATICS AND BIOINFORMATICS 2022;
11:32. [PMID:
36061223 PMCID:
PMC9419647 DOI:
10.1007/s13721-022-00375-1]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2022] [Revised: 07/29/2022] [Accepted: 08/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
We investigate transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 on a real network of classes at Simon Fraser University. Outbreaks are simulated over the course of one semester across numerous parameter settings, including moving classes above certain size thresholds online. Regression trees are used to analyze the effect of disease parameters on simulation outputs. We find that an aggressive class size thresholding strategy is required to mitigate the risk of a large outbreak, and that transmission by symptomatic individuals is a key driver of outbreak size. These findings provide guidance for designing control strategies at other institutions, as well as setting priorities and allocating resources for disease monitoring.
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