Real World Evidence: Time for a Switch?

Review of Clinical Research Informatics

OBJECTIVES

Clinical Research Informatics (CRI) declares its scope in its name, but its content, both in terms of the clinical research it supports-and sometimes initiates-and the methods it has developed over time, reach much further than the name suggests. The goal of this review is to celebrate the extraordinary diversity of activity and of results, not as a prize-giving pageant, but in recognition of the field, the community that both serves and is sustained by it, and of its interdisciplinarity and its international dimension.

METHODS

Beyond personal awareness of a range of work commensurate with the author's own research, it is clear that, even with a thorough literature search, a comprehensive review is impossible. Moreover, the field has grown and subdivided to an extent that makes it very hard for one individual to be familiar with every branch or with more than a few branches in any depth. A literature survey was conducted that focused on informatics-related terms in the general biomedical and healthcare literature, and specific concerns ("artificial intelligence", "data models", "analytics", etc.) in the biomedical informatics (BMI) literature. In addition to a selection from the results from these searches, suggestive references within them were also considered.

RESULTS

The substantive sections of the paper-Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and "Big Data" Analytics; Common Data Models, Data Quality, and Standards; Phenotyping and Cohort Discovery; Privacy: Deidentification, Distributed Computation, Blockchain; Causal Inference and Real-World Evidence-provide broad coverage of these active research areas, with, no doubt, a bias towards this reviewer's interests and preferences, landing on a number of papers that stood out in one way or another, or, alternatively, exemplified a particular line of work.

CONCLUSIONS

CRI is thriving, not only in the familiar major centers of research, but more widely, throughout the world. This is not to pretend that the distribution is uniform, but to highlight the potential for this domain to play a prominent role in supporting progress in medicine, healthcare, and wellbeing everywhere. We conclude with the observation that CRI and its practitioners would make apt stewards of the new medical knowledge that their methods will bring forward.

Optimizing interim analysis timing for Bayesian adaptive commensurate designs

In developing products for rare diseases, statistical challenges arise due to the limited number of patients available for participation in drug trials and other clinical research. Bayesian adaptive clinical trial designs offer the possibility of increased statistical efficiency, reduced development cost and ethical hazard prevention via their incorporation of evidence from external sources (historical data, expert opinions, and real-world evidence), and flexibility in the specification of interim looks. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian adaptive commensurate design that borrows adaptively from historical information and also uses a particular payoff function to optimize the timing of the study's interim analysis. The trial payoff is a function of how many samples can be saved via early stopping and the probability of making correct early decisions for either futility or efficacy. We calibrate our Bayesian algorithm to have acceptable long-run frequentist properties (Type I error and power) via simulation at the design stage. We illustrate our approach using a pediatric trial design setting testing the effect of a new drug for a rare genetic disease. The optimIA R package available at https://github.com/wxwx1993/Bayesian_IA_Timing provides an easy-to-use implementation of our approach.