Cost-effectiveness analyses in multiple sclerosis: a review of modelling approaches

Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom

AIM

To evaluate the real-world comparative effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness, from a UK National Health Service perspective, of natalizumab versus fingolimod in patients with rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RES-RRMS).

METHODS

Real-world data from the MSBase Registry were obtained for patients with RES-RRMS who were previously either naive to disease-modifying therapies or had been treated with interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide (collectively known as BRACETD). Matched cohorts were selected by 3-way multinomial propensity score matching, and the annualized relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M) were compared between treatment groups. Comparative effectiveness results were used in a cost-effectiveness model comparing natalizumab and fingolimod, using an established Markov structure over a lifetime horizon with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Additional model data sources included the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available sources.

RESULTS

In the comparative effectiveness analysis, we found a significantly lower ARR for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (rate ratio [RR] = 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.73) or BRACETD (RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.53). Similarly, CDI6M was higher for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.55) and BRACETD (HR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.16-1.85). In patients starting fingolimod, we found a lower ARR (RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80) compared with starting BRACETD, but no difference in CDI6M (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91-1.50). Differences in CDW6M were not found between the treatment groups. In the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, natalizumab dominated fingolimod (0.302 higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and £17,141 lower predicted lifetime costs). Similar cost-effectiveness results were observed across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This MSBase Registry analysis suggests that natalizumab improves clinical outcomes when compared with fingolimod, which translates to higher QALYs and lower costs in UK patients with RES-RRMS.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Ocrelizumab for the Treatment of Relapsing and Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis in Portugal

OBJECTIVES

Ocrelizumab demonstrated significant clinical benefit for the treatment of relapsing (RMS) and primary progressive (PPMS) multiple sclerosis (MS), an incurable disease characterized by disability progression. This study evaluated the clinical and economic impact of ocrelizumab relative to current clinical practice, including other disease-modifying therapies (DMT), available in Portugal.

METHODS

Markov models for MS were adapted to estimate the impact of ocrelizumab across three patient populations: treatment-naïve RMS, previously treated RMS, and PPMS. Health states were defined according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale. For RMS, the model further captured the occurrence of relapses and progression to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). A lifetime time-horizon and Portuguese societal perspective were adopted.

RESULTS

For RMS patients, ocrelizumab was estimated to maximize the expected time (years) without progression to SPMS (10.50) relative to natalizumab (10.10), dimethyl fumarate (8.64), teriflunomide (8.39), fingolimod (8.38), interferon β-1a (8.33) and glatiramer acetate (8.18). As the most effective option, with quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains between 0.3 and 1.2, ocrelizumab was found to be cost-saving relative to natalizumab and fingolimod, and presented incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) below €16,720/QALY relative to the remaining DMT. For PPMS patients, the ICER of ocrelizumab versus best supportive care was estimated at €78,858/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Ocrelizumab provides important health benefits for RMS and PPMS patients, comparing favourably with other widely used therapies. In RMS, ocrelizumab was revealed to be either cost-saving or have costs-per-QALY likely below commonly accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. In PPMS, ocrelizumab fills a clear clinical gap in the current clinical practice. Overall, ocrelizumab is expected to provide good value for money in addressing the need of MS patients.

Societal economic burden of multiple sclerosis and cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies

Background

In an era of scarce resources, policy makers, neurologists and other stakeholders need to be aware of the economic burden of multiple sclerosis and the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies. The aim of this article is to provide a mini-review of these health economic facets of multiple sclerosis.

Methods

An umbrella review was conducted by searching PubMed and Google Scholar from 2002 until June 2022 for peer-reviewed systematic and narrative literature reviews.

Results

An extensive body of evidence corroborates that multiple sclerosis is associated with a substantial economic burden within and outside the health care sector, that costs of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis exceed those of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, that costs increase with disease severity and are influenced by the occurrence of relapses and therapy adherence. However, cost estimates and their breakdown into various components vary between countries. Economic evaluations show that disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis are generally not cost-effective, but these results depend on the local setting. Cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies improves when a societal perspective is taken and efficacy does not wane over a lifetime horizon, when oral administration forms or dosing strategies requiring less maintenance are introduced, and when generic versions enter the market. Reimbursement recommendations related to disease-modifying therapies also differ between countries.

Conclusion

The local context matters when calculating the societal economic burden of multiple sclerosis and the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies.

Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Natalizumab and Fingolimod in Patients with Inadequate Response to Disease-Modifying Therapies in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis inadequately responding to first-line therapies (interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and teriflunomide, known collectively as "BRACETD") often switch to natalizumab or fingolimod.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to estimate the comparative effectiveness of switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD using real-world data and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to natalizumab versus fingolimod using a United Kingdom (UK) third-party payer perspective.

METHODS

Real-world data were obtained from MSBase for patients relapsing on BRACETD in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD. Three-way-multinomial-propensity-score-matched cohorts were identified, and comparisons between treatment groups were conducted for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M). Results were applied in a cost-effectiveness model over a lifetime horizon using a published Markov structure with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Other model parameters were obtained from the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available UK sources.

RESULTS

The MSBase analysis found a significant reduction in ARR (rate ratio [RR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.72; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67; 95% CI 1.30-2.15; p < 0.001) for switching to natalizumab compared with BRACETD. For switching to fingolimod, the reduction in ARR (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81-1.03; p = 0.133) and increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.72; p = 0.058) compared with BRACETD were not significant. Switching to natalizumab was associated with a significant reduction in ARR (RR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.62-0.79; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.62; p = 0.040) compared to switching to fingolimod. No evidence of difference in CDW6M was found between treatment groups. Natalizumab dominated (higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and lower costs) fingolimod in the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis (0.453 higher QALYs and £20,843 lower costs per patient). Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel real-world analysis suggests a clinical benefit for therapy escalation to natalizumab versus fingolimod based on comparative effectiveness results, translating to higher QALYs and lower costs for UK patients inadequately responding to BRACETD.

How have Economic Evaluations in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Evolved Over Time? A Systematic Literature Review

INTRODUCTION

The introduction of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) over the last two decades has prompted the economic assessments of these treatments by reimbursement authorities. The aim of this systematic literature review was to evaluate the modeling approach and data sources used in economic evaluations of DMTs for RMS, identify differences and similarities, and explore how economic evaluation models have evolved over time.

METHODS

MEDLINE®, Embase®, and EBM Reviews databases were searched using Ovid® Platform from database inception on 25 December 2019 and subsequently updated on 17 February 2021. In addition, health technology assessment agency websites, key conference proceedings, and gray literature from relevant websites were screened. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Drummond and Philips checklists.

RESULTS

A total 155 publications and 30 Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports were included. Most of these were cost-utility analysis (73 studies and 25 HTA reports) and funded by medicines manufacturers (n = 65). The top three countries where studies were conducted were the USA (n = 29), the UK (n = 16), and Spain (n = 10). Studies predominantly used Markov cohort models (94 studies; 25 HTAs) structured based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) with 21 health states (20 studies; 12 HTA reports). The London Ontario and British Columbia data sets were commonly used sources for natural history data (n = 33; n = 13). Twelve studies and ten HTAs from the UK assumed a waning of DMT effect over the long term, while this was uncommon in studies from other countries. Nineteen studies adjusted for multiple sclerosis (MS)-specific mortality estimates, while 18 studies used data from the national life table without adjustment. Studies prominently referred to mortality data that were about two decades old. The data on treatment effect was generally obtained from randomized controlled trials (43 studies; 7 HTAs) or from published evidence synthesis (23 studies; 24 HTAs). Utility estimates were derived from either published studies and/or supplemented with data from RCTs. Most of the models used the lifetime horizon (n = 37) with a 1-year cycle length (n = 63).

CONCLUSION

As expected, similarities as well as differences were observed across the different economic models. Available evidence suggests models should continue using the Markov cohort model with 21 EDSS-based states, however, allowing the transition to a lower EDSS state and assuming a sustained treatment effect. With reference to the data sources, models should consider using a contemporary MS-specific mortality data, recent natural history data, and country-specific utility data if available. In case of data unavailability, a sensitivity analysis using multiple sources of data should be conducted. In addition, future models should incorporate other clinically relevant outcomes, such as the cognition, vision, and psychological aspects of RMS, to be able to present the comprehensive value of DMTs.

Predictors of Health Utility in Relapsing-Remitting and Secondary-Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: Implications for Future Economic Models of Disease-Modifying Therapies

BACKGROUND

Decision-analytic models used in economic evaluations of disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) have characterized disease progression and accrue quality-adjusted life-years from utility values based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), the occurrence of relapses, and progression to secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). The EDSS, used to characterize disability progression, has several limitations. If the EDSS is the only disability measure used in economic evaluations, the long-term clinical and economic implications of disease-modifying therapies may not be properly assessed.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to explore if supplementary disability measures including the Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT), and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) significantly contribute additional information on health utility in RRMS and SPMS otherwise not captured by the EDSS and relapses and, therefore, should be considered in future economic evaluations of disease-modifying therapies.

METHODS

Short-Form Six-Dimension utility scores were derived from the RAND 36-Item Health Survey 1.0 individual-level data available in the Multiple Sclerosis Outcome Assessment Consortium (MSOAC) Placebo Database. Repeated-measures mixed-effects models were conducted to estimate the effects of EDSS, T25FW, 9HPT (dominant and non-dominant hand), PASAT, and relapses on changes in utility over time, controlling for demographics.

RESULTS

A higher level of EDSS, longer time to complete the T25FW test, and a recent relapse were significant predictors of lower utility in people with RRMS and SPMS. 9HPT and PASAT were not significant predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that in addition to EDSS and recent relapses, T25FW significantly predicts utility in RRMS and SPMS. These findings support the use of T25FW to supplement the EDSS and the occurrence of relapses to characterize the course of disease progression and to more accurately accrue quality-adjusted life-years in future economic evaluations of disease-modifying therapies for the treatment of RRMS.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of prolonged-release fampridine for the treatment of walking impairment in patients with multiple sclerosis in Sweden

Aims: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding prolonged-release (PR)-fampridine to best supportive care (BSC) versus BSC alone for the improvement of walking ability in patients with MS.Methods: A cost-utility analysis based on a Markov model was developed to model responders and timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) scores, accumulated costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) in adults with MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores between 4 and 7. The analysis was conducted from a Swedish societal perspective.Results: In the base-case analysis, PR-fampridine plus BSC led to a higher QALY gain than BSC alone. The largest direct cost was professional care provision followed by hospital inpatient stays while the indirect cost was the loss of earnings due to days off work. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for PR-fampridine plus BSC compared with BSC alone was 57,109 Swedish Kronor (kr)/QALY (€5,607/QALY [1 kr = €0.0981762 on 8 April 2021] and $6,675/QALY [1 kr = $0.116890 on 8 April 2021]). All sensitivity analyses performed resulted in ICERs below 500,000 kr (€49,088 and $58,445).Limitations: Resource use data were not specific to the Swedish market.Conclusions: PR-fampridine represents a cost-effective treatment for MS-related walking impairment in Sweden, due to improvements in patients' quality of life and reduced healthcare resource utilization.

Pharmacoeconomics of synthetic therapies for multiple sclerosis

Introduction: Recently, the economic impact of multiple sclerosis (MS), which includes both direct and indirect costs, has been increasing. While direct costs comprise health-care costs, such as the cost of pharmaceuticals, additional treatments such as physiotherapy, and medical aids, indirect costs are triggered by the productivity loss of patients and caregivers. Although new drugs for MS have changed the therapeutic scenario, they have increased the direct costs of health-care services. Areas covered: This review describes the pharmacoeconomic aspects of synthetic therapies for MS. Additionally, it discusses the economic impact of the various classes of licensed disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) for relapsing forms of MS. Expert opinion: The emerging and more expensive DMTs for MS represent a considerable challenge for health-care systems and resource consumption. Future research should focus on the long-term efficacy of DMTs and the cost of treating MS in a real-life setting. Future biological and radiological biomarkers could help stratify patients at early stages of MS, helping physicians design a personalized therapeutic approach that could have a positive impact in economic terms.

Cost-effectiveness of Teriflunomide Compared to Interferon Beta-1b for Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Patients in China

Background and Objective

Teriflunomide is a once-daily oral immunomodulatory agent approved in 80 countries for the treatment of patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). The study objective was to estimate the cost effectiveness of teriflunomide (14 mg tablet, daily) versus interferon beta-1b (250 mcg subcutaneous injection, every other day) among RMS patients from the Chinese healthcare system perspective.

Methods

A Markov model with annual cycles and a lifetime horizon was utilized to assess cost-effectiveness of teriflunomide in comparison with interferon beta-1b in RMS patients. Treatment effects, including 3-month confirmed disability worsening and annualized relapse rate, were derived from a network meta-analysis. Cost inputs included costs related to treatment acquisition, administration, monitoring, natural disease management through Expanded Disability Status Scale states, relapse treatment, and adverse event management. These costs were calculated as the product between unit costs from published sources and healthcare resource utilization patterns identified in a survey conducted among 11 neurologists across different areas in China. Health effects were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with costs in local currency (¥) and US dollars (US$), 2018.

Results

Teriflunomide dominated interferon beta-1b and was associated with lower total costs (teriflunomide ¥1,887,144 vs interferon beta-1b ¥2,061,393) and higher QALYs (teriflunomide 9.60 QALYs vs interferon beta-1b 8.88 QALYs). In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, teriflunomide was dominant in 62.2% of model runs.

Conclusion

Teriflunomide is a cost-effective therapy over a lifetime time horizon compared to interferon beta-1b in the treatment of RMS patients in China. Results should be interpreted with caution as head-to-head comparisons are not available.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s40261-019-00750-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alemtuzumab in the Treatment of Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab compared with fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, and generic glatiramer acetate 20 mg among patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

Markov model with annual periods from payer perspective.

METHODS

The modeled population represented pooled patients from the CARE-MS I and II trials. Therapies' comparative efficacy at reducing relapses and slowing disability worsening was obtained from network meta-analyses. Safety information was extracted from package inserts. Withdrawal rates, treatment waning, resource use, cost, and utility inputs were derived from published studies and clinical expert opinion. To project the natural history of disease worsening, data from the British Columbia cohort was used.

RESULTS

Alemtuzumab dominated comparators by accumulating higher total quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (8.977) and lower total costs ($421 996) compared with fingolimod (7.955; $1 085 814), natalizumab (8.456; $1 048 599), ocrelizumab (8.478; $908 365), and generic glatiramer acetate (7.845; $895 661) over a 20-year time horizon. Alemtuzumab's dominance was primarily driven by savings in treatment costs because alemtuzumab has long-term duration of response and is initially administered as 2 annual courses, with 36.1% of patients requiring retreatment over 5 years, whereas comparators are used chronically. In model scenarios where alemtuzumab's long-term duration of response was assumed not to hold and therapy had to be administered annually, probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that alemtuzumab remained cost-effective versus ocrelizumab at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY in 74% to 100% of model runs.

CONCLUSIONS

Alemtuzumab was a cost-effective therapy. Model results should be used to optimize clinical and managed care decisions for effective RMS treatment.

Modeling Approaches in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Disease-Modifying Therapies for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: An Updated Systematic Review and Recommendations for Future Economic Evaluations

BACKGROUND

Numerous cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) have been published in the last three decades. Literature reviews of the modeling methods and results from these CEAs have also been published. The last literature review that focused on modeling methods, without country or time horizon in the inclusion criteria, included studies published up to 2012. Since then, new DMTs have become available, and new models and data sources have been used to assess their cost effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed and comprehensive description of the relevant aspects of economic models used in CEAs of DMTs for RRMS, to understand how these models have progressed from recommendations provided in past reviews, what new approaches have been developed, what issues remain, and how they could be addressed.

METHODS

EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the National Health System (NHS) Economic Evaluations Database, the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Database, and EconLit were searched for cost-effectiveness studies of DMTs for RRMS that used decision-analytic models, published in English between 1 January 2012 and 24 December 2017. The inclusion criteria were as follows: being a full economic evaluation, a decision-analytic model was used, the target population concerned adult patients with RRMS, and being available in full-text format. Studies were not excluded based on the methodological quality. The background information of the included studies, as well as specific information on the components of the economic models related to the areas of recommendation from previous reviews were extracted.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies from ten countries were included. The model structure of these studies has converged over time, characterizing the course of disease progression in terms of changes in disability and the occurrence of relapses over time. Variations were found in model approach; data sources for the natural course of the disease and comparative efficacy between DMTs; number of lines of treatment modeled; long-term efficacy waning and treatment discontinuation assumptions; type of withdrawal; and criteria for selecting adverse events. Main areas for improvement include using long-term time horizons and societal perspective; reporting relevant health outcomes; conducting scenario analyses using different sources of natural history and utility values; and reporting how the model was validated.

CONCLUSION

The structure of economic models used in CEAs of DMTs for RRMS has converged over time. However, variation remains in terms of model approach, inputs, and assumptions. Though some recommendations from previous reviews have been incorporated in later models, areas for improvement remain.

When does economic model type become a decisive factor in health technology appraisals? Learning from the expanding treatment options for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

Specific economic model types often become de facto standard for health technology appraisal over time. Markov and discrete event simulation (DES) models were compared to investigate the impact of innovative modeling on the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Fingolimod was compared to dimethyl fumarate (DMF; in highly active [HA] RRMS), alemtuzumab (in HA RRMS) and natalizumab (in rapidly evolving severe RRMS). Comparator DMTs were chosen to reflect different dosing regimens.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Markov and DES models used have been published previously. Inputs were aligned in all relevant respects, with differences in the modeling of event-triggered attributes, such as relapse-related retreatment, which is inherently difficult with a memoryless Markov approach. Outcomes were compared, with and without different attributes.

RESULTS

All results used list prices. For fingolimod and DMF, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were comparable (Markov: £4206/quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained versus DES: £3910/QALY gained). Deviations were observed when long-term adverse events (AEs) were incorporated in the DES (Markov: £25,412 saved/QALY lost, versus DES: £34,209 saved/QALY lost, fingolimod versus natalizumab; higher ICERs indicate greater cost-effectiveness). For fingolimod versus alemtuzumab, when relapse-triggered retreatment was included in the DES, large cost differences were observed (difference between incremental cost is £35,410 and QALY is 0.10).

LIMITATIONS

UK payer perspective, therefore societal approach was not considered. Resource utilization and utilities for both models were not derived from the subpopulations; as the focus is on model type, input limitations that apply to both models are less relevant.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst no model can fully represent a disease, a DES allows an opportunity to include features excluded in a Markov structure. A DES may be more suitable for modeling in RRMS for health technology assessment purposes given the complexity of some DMTs. This analysis highlights the capabilities of different model structures to model event-triggered attributes.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of beta-interferon and glatiramer acetate for treating multiple sclerosis: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

At the time of publication of the most recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance [technology appraisal (TA) 32] in 2002 on beta-interferon (IFN-β) and glatiramer acetate (GA) for multiple sclerosis, there was insufficient evidence of their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake (1) systematic reviews of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IFN-β and GA in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) compared with best supportive care (BSC) and each other, investigating annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months and 6 months and (2) cost-effectiveness assessments of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for CIS and RRMS compared with BSC and each other.

REVIEW METHODS

Searches were undertaken in January and February 2016 in databases including The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and the Science Citation Index. We limited some database searches to specific start dates based on previous, relevant systematic reviews. Two reviewers screened titles and abstracts with recourse to a third when needed. The Cochrane tool and the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) and Philips checklists were used for appraisal. Narrative synthesis and, when possible, random-effects meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were performed. Cost-effectiveness analysis used published literature, findings from the Department of Health's risk-sharing scheme (RSS) and expert opinion. A de novo economic model was built for CIS. The base case used updated RSS data, a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective, a 50-year time horizon, 2014/15 prices and a discount rate of 3.5%. Outcomes are reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We undertook probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 6420 publications were identified, of which 63 relating to 35 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included. In total, 86% had a high risk of bias. There was very little difference between drugs in reducing moderate or severe relapse rates in RRMS. All were beneficial compared with BSC, giving a pooled rate ratio of 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.76] for ARR and a hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.87) for time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months. NMA suggested that 20 mg of GA given subcutaneously had the highest probability of being the best at reducing ARR. Three separate cost-effectiveness searches identified > 2500 publications, with 26 included studies informing the narrative synthesis and model inputs. In the base case using a modified RSS the mean incremental cost was £31,900 for pooled DMTs compared with BSC and the mean incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 0.943, giving an ICER of £33,800 per QALY gained for people with RRMS. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis the ICER was £34,000 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analysis, using the assessment group inputs gave an ICER of £12,800 per QALY gained for pooled DMTs compared with BSC. Pegylated IFN-β-1 (125 µg) was the most cost-effective option of the individual DMTs compared with BSC (ICER £7000 per QALY gained); GA (20 mg) was the most cost-effective treatment for CIS (ICER £16,500 per QALY gained).

LIMITATIONS

Although we built a de novo model for CIS that incorporated evidence from our systematic review of clinical effectiveness, our findings relied on a population diagnosed with CIS before implementation of the revised 2010 McDonald criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

DMTs were clinically effective for RRMS and CIS but cost-effective only for CIS. Both RCT evidence and RSS data are at high risk of bias. Research priorities include comparative studies with longer follow-up and systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016043278.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Disease-Modifying Therapies for Multiple Sclerosis: A Systematic Literature Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. MS is considered incurable; however, disease treatment has advanced significantly over the past several decades with the introduction of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). The current study reviewed the cost-effectiveness analyses of DMTs in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of bibliographic databases was conducted to identify economic evaluations published after 2007. The relevant population, intervention, comparators, outcomes, and study design (PICOS) were considered. The outcomes of interest were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), net monetary benefits, incremental benefits, and incremental costs. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement was used to assess the reporting quality of published studies.

RESULTS

A total of 1370 potentially relevant citations were identified, of which 33 published articles and four Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports prepared for the UK were included in the final analysis. Almost all studies were based on a health economic model and considered RRMS as the phase of disease at study entry. The studies were conducted in 10 different countries, with approximately 50% based in the US. Study outcomes were rarely comparable due to the different settings, input data, and assumptions. Even within the same country, the discrepancy between study criteria was considerable. The compliance with reporting standards of the CHEERS statement was generally high.

CONCLUSIONS

Internationally, a large number of health economic assessments of DMTs in RRMS were available, yielding difficult to compare, and at times conflicting, results.

Incremental net monetary benefit of ocrelizumab relative to subcutaneous interferon β-1a

AIM

Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) impact the natural history of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RRMS) by reducing annual relapse rates and slowing disability progression. The effect of DMTs on indirect costs has not been consistently explored in cost-effectiveness studies thus far. The value to patients of an emerging DMT, ocrelizumab, was quantified in comparison to subcutaneous interferon beta-1a (IFNβSC) for the prevalent RRMS population with mild-to-moderate disability in the US, based on two Phase 3 trials, OPERA I and OPERA II, of ocrelizumab vs IFNβSC in RRMS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov model was developed to compare disability progression as measured by Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and relapse outcomes over a 30-year horizon for ocrelizumab vs IFNβSC. Direct, indirect, and informal costs (2016 US dollars) and utilities for EDSS health states were obtained from the literature. Hazard ratios for disability progression and relapse rates were estimated from clinical trials. Value was assessed by calculating the net monetary benefit (NMB), defined as the monetary value of discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) minus total costs, where the value of a QALY was $150,000. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Ocrelizumab was associated with an incremental gain of 0.84 QALYs and cost savings of $287,713 relative to IFNβSC, resulting in an incremental NMB (INMB) of $413,611 per person over 30 years. The INMB increased by $151,763 for those initiating ocrelizumab at EDSS level 1 vs level 4. Influential parameters were QALY value, treatment costs, and disability progression; however, all sensitivity analyses indicated that the INMB for ocrelizumab relative to IFNβSC was ≥$300,000 per person.

CONCLUSIONS

Ocrelizumab provides greater value to RRMS patients compared with IFNβSC. Initiating ocrelizumab at lower EDSS levels leads to a greater cumulative value due to slower disability progression, which extends years with higher quality-of-life.

New insights into the burden and costs of multiple sclerosis in Europe

Background:

The current focus in multiple sclerosis (MS) is on early diagnosis and drug intervention, with a view to modifying disease progression. Consequently, healthcare costs have shifted from inpatient care and rehabilitation to outpatient care.

Objectives:

This European burden of illness study provides data that can be combined with other evidence to assess whether management approaches provide value to society.

Methods:

A cross-sectional study was conducted in 16 countries. Patients reported on their disease, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and resource consumption. Descriptive analyses were performed by disease severity. Costs are reported from a societal perspective in 2015€ PPP (adjusted for purchasing power parity).

Results:

The 16,808 participants had a mean age of 51.5 years, and 52% had relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Work capacity declined from 82% to 8%, and utility declined from normal population values to less than zero with advancing disease. Mean costs were 22,800€ PPP in mild, 37,100€ PPP in moderate and 57,500€ PPP in severe disease; healthcare accounted for 68%, 47% and 26%, respectively. Fatigue and cognitive difficulties were reported by 95% and 71% of participants, respectively; both had a significant independent effect on utility.

Conclusion:

Costs and utility were highly correlated with disease severity, but resource consumption was heavily influenced by healthcare systems organisation and availability of services.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies for treatment relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

AIM

To compare the cost-effectiveness of different disease-modifying therapies' strategies for treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for different strategies of using disease-modifying therapies from a US third-party payer perspective. All costs were converted to 2014 US$.

RESULTS

Over 20 years, the total costs per patient were estimated at US$161,136.60 for Strategy 1 (symptom management [SM] alone), US$551,650.66 for Strategy 2 (SM and IFN-β-1a), US$703,463.60 for Strategy 3 (SM and natalizumab) and US$670,985.24 for Strategy 4 (SM and alemtuzumab). The accumulated quality-adjusted life years were 10.49, 10.66, 10.69 and 10.71 for each of the four Strategies 1-4, respectively. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were 2,297,141.53 comparing Strategy 2 to Strategy 1, and -1,623,918.00 comparing Strategy 4 to Strategy 3.

CONCLUSION

Strategy 1 was the cost-effective strategy for treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis when compared with other strategies.

Precision Medicine in Multiple Sclerosis: Future of PET Imaging of Inflammation and Reactive Astrocytes

Non-invasive molecular imaging techniques can enhance diagnosis to achieve successful treatment, as well as reveal underlying pathogenic mechanisms in disorders such as multiple sclerosis (MS). The cooperation of advanced multimodal imaging techniques and increased knowledge of the MS disease mechanism allows both monitoring of neuronal network and therapeutic outcome as well as the tools to discover novel therapeutic targets. Diverse imaging modalities provide reliable diagnostic and prognostic platforms to better achieve precision medicine. Traditionally, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been considered the golden standard in MS research and diagnosis. However, positron emission tomography (PET) imaging can provide functional information of molecular biology in detail even prior to anatomic changes, allowing close follow up of disease progression and treatment response. The recent findings support three major neuroinflammation components in MS: astrogliosis, cytokine elevation, and significant changes in specific proteins, which offer a great variety of specific targets for imaging purposes. Regardless of the fact that imaging of astrocyte function is still a young field and in need for development of suitable imaging ligands, recent studies have shown that inflammation and astrocyte activation are related to progression of MS. MS is a complex disease, which requires understanding of disease mechanisms for successful treatment. PET is a precise non-invasive imaging method for biochemical functions and has potential to enhance early and accurate diagnosis for precision therapy of MS. In this review we focus on modulation of different receptor systems and inflammatory aspect of MS, especially on activation of glial cells, and summarize the recent findings of PET imaging in MS and present the most potent targets for new biomarkers with the main focus on experimental MS research.

Convergence yet Continued Complexity: A Systematic Review and Critique of Health Economic Models of Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVES

Several disease-modifying therapies have marketing authorizations for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Given their appraisal by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, the objective was to systematically identify and critically evaluate the structures and assumptions used in health economic models of disease-modifying therapies for RRMS in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

Embase, MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Web site were searched systematically on March 3, 2014, to identify articles relating to health economic models in RRMS with a UK perspective. Data sources, techniques, and assumptions of the included models were extracted, compared, and critically evaluated.

RESULTS

Of 386 results, 26 full texts were evaluated, leading to the inclusion of 18 articles (relating to 12 models). Early models varied considerably in method and structure, but convergence over time toward a Markov model with states based on disability score, a 1-year cycle length, and a lifetime time horizon was apparent. Recent models also allowed for disability improvement within the natural history of the condition. Considerable variety remains, with increasing numbers of comparators, the need for treatment sequencing, and different assumptions around efficacy waning and treatment withdrawal.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite convergence over time to a similar Markov structure, there are still significant discrepancies between health economic models of RRMS in the United Kingdom. Differing methods, assumptions, and data sources render the comparison of model implementation and results problematic. The commonly used Markov structure leads to problems such as incapability to deal with heterogeneous populations and multiplying complexity with the addition of treatment sequences; these would best be solved by using alternative models such as discrete event simulations.

Cost effectiveness of fingolimod, teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate and intramuscular interferon-β1a in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to compare the cost effectiveness of fingolimod, teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate, and intramuscular (IM) interferon (IFN)-β(1a) as first-line therapies in the treatment of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS).

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) from a US societal perspective. The time horizon in the base case was 5 years. The primary outcome was incremental net monetary benefit (INMB), and the secondary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The base case INMB willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was assumed to be US$150,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and the costs were in 2012 US dollars. One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to test the robustness of the model results.

RESULTS

Dimethyl fumarate dominated all other therapies over the range of WTPs, from US$0 to US$180,000. Compared with IM IFN-β(1a), at a WTP of US$150,000, INMBs were estimated at US$36,567, US$49,780, and US$80,611 for fingolimod, teriflunomide, and dimethyl fumarate, respectively. The ICER of fingolimod versus teriflunomide was US$3,201,672. One-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated the model results were sensitive to the acquisition costs of DMDs and the time horizon, but in most scenarios, cost-effectiveness rankings remained stable. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that for more than 90% of the simulations, dimethyl fumarate was the optimal therapy across all WTP values.

CONCLUSION

The three oral therapies were favored in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Of the four DMDs, dimethyl fumarate was a dominant therapy to manage RRMS. Apart from dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide was the most cost-effective therapy compared with IM IFN-β(1a), with an ICER of US$7,115.