Overview and Use of Tools for Selecting Modelling Techniques in Health Economic Studies

Incorporating Complexity and System Dynamics into Economic Modelling for Mental Health Policy and Planning

Care as usual has failed to stem the tide of mental health challenges in children and young people. Transformed models of care and prevention are required, including targeting the social determinants of mental health. Robust economic evidence is crucial to guide investment towards prioritised interventions that are effective and cost-effective to optimise health outcomes and ensure value for money. Mental healthcare and prevention exhibit the characteristics of complex dynamic systems, yet dynamic simulation modelling has to date only rarely been used to conduct economic evaluation in this area. This article proposes an integrated decision-making and planning framework for mental health that includes system dynamics modelling, cost-effectiveness analysis, and participatory model-building methods, in a circular process that is constantly reviewed and updated in a 'living model' ecosystem. We describe a case study of this approach for mental health system policy and planning that synergises the unique attributes of a system dynamics approach within the context of economic evaluation. This kind of approach can help decision makers make the most of precious, limited resources in healthcare. The application of modelling to organise and enable better responses to the youth mental health crisis offers positive benefits for individuals and their families, as well as for taxpayers.

A systematic review of whole disease models for informing healthcare resource allocation decisions

BACKGROUND

Whole disease models (WDM) are large-scale, system-level models which can evaluate multiple decision questions across an entire care pathway. Whilst this type of model can offer several advantages as a platform for undertaking economic analyses, the availability and quality of existing WDMs is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review aimed to identify existing WDMs to explore which disease areas they cover, to critically assess the quality of these models and provide recommendations for future research.

METHODS

An electronic search was performed on multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Technology Assessment database) on 23rd July 2023. Two independent reviewers selected studies for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) appraisal checklist for economic evaluations. Model characteristics were descriptively summarised.

RESULTS

Forty-four WDMs were identified, of which thirty-two were developed after 2010. The main disease areas covered by existing WDMs are heart disease, cancer, acquired immune deficiency syndrome and metabolic disease. The quality of included WDMs is generally low. Common limitations included failure to consider the harms and costs of adverse events (AEs) of interventions, lack of probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and poor reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been an increase in the number of WDMs since 2010. However, their quality is generally low which means they may require significant modification before they could be re-used, such as modelling AEs of interventions and incorporation of PSA. Sufficient details of the WDMs need to be reported to allow future reuse/adaptation.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hemodialysis plus hemoperfusion versus hemodialysis alone in adult patients with end-stage renal disease in China

Background

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of hemodialysis (HD) plus hemoperfusion (HP) with HD alone in adult patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in China.

Methods

A Markov model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions over a lifetime horizon. Model parameters were informed by the HD/HP trial, the first randomized, open-label multicenter trial comparing survival outcomes and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for HD + HP versus HD alone, and supplemented by published literature and expert opinion. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with respect to quality adjusted life-years (QALY). The robustness of the results was examined in extensive sensitivity analyses. Analyses were conducted from a healthcare perspective. Costs were reported in both Chinese Renminbi (RMB) and US Dollars (USD) in 2019 values.

Results

The base case ICER of HD + HP is RMB 174,486 (USD 25,251) per QALY, which is lower than the RMB 212,676 (USD 30,778) willingness-to-pay threshold of three times Gross Domestic Product. This conclusion is sensitive to the mortality for patients with no severe CVD events, the incidence of CVD events, and the cost of HP and HD. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of RMB 212,676 (USD 30,778) per QALY gained, the probability that HD + HP is cost-effective is 58%.

Conclusions

Our results indicate a potential for HD + HP to be cost-effective for patients with ESRD. Further evidence on the longer-term impact of HD + HP on CVD event rates and mortality unrelated to CVD is needed to robustly demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of HD + HP.

Trial Registration

The HD/HP trial was registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR-IOR-16009332).