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Serra-Burriel M, Juanola A, Serra-Burriel F, Thiele M, Graupera I, Pose E, Pera G, Grgurevic I, Caballeria L, Piano S, van Kleef L, Reichert M, Roulot D, Pericà s JM, Schattenberg JM, Tsochatztis EA, Guha IN, Garcia-Retortillo M, Hernández R, Hoyo J, Fuentes M, Expósito C, MartÃnez A, Such P, Madir A, Detlefsen S, Tonon M, Martini A, Ma AT, Pich J, Bonfill E, Juan M, Soria A, Carol M, Gratacós-Ginès J, Morillas RM, Toran P, Navarrete JM, Torrejón A, Fournier C, Llorca A, Arslanow A, de Koning HJ, Cucchietti F, Manns M, Newsome PN, Hernáez R, Allen A, Angeli P, de Knegt RJ, Karlsen TH, Galle P, Wong VWS, Fabrellas N, Castera L, Krag A, Lammert F, Kamath PS, Ginès P. Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study. Lancet 2023; 402:988-996. [PMID: 37572680 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01174-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 08/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).
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Affiliation(s)
- Miquel Serra-Burriel
- Epidemiology, Statistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Adrià Juanola
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Maja Thiele
- Centre for Liver Research, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Odense University Hospital, and Institute for Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark Odense, Odense, Denmark
| | - Isabel Graupera
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Elisa Pose
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Guillem Pera
- Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Metropolitana Nord, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primà ria Jordi Gol, Mataró, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ivica Grgurevic
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Clinical Nutrition, University Hospital Dubrava, University of Zagreb School of Medicine and Faculty of Pharmacy and Biochemistry, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Llorenç Caballeria
- Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Metropolitana Nord, Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenció Primà ria de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Metropolitana Nord, IDIAP Jordi Gol, ICS Institut Català de la Salut, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Salvatore Piano
- Unit of Internal Medicine and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Laurens van Kleef
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Mathias Reichert
- Department of Medicine II, Saarland University Medical Center, Homburg, Germany
| | - Dominique Roulot
- Unité d'Hépatologie, Hôpital Avicenne, AP-HP, Université Paris 13, Bobigny, France
| | - Juan M Pericà s
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jörn M Schattenberg
- Department of Internal Medicine I, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University, Mainz, Germany
| | - Emmanuel A Tsochatztis
- UCL Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, Royal Free Hospital, University College of London, London, UK
| | - Indra Neil Guha
- NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | | | - Rosario Hernández
- Institut Catala de la Salut, BCN, Ambit d'Atencio Primaria, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jordi Hoyo
- Institut Catala de la Salut, BCN, Ambit d'Atencio Primaria, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Matilde Fuentes
- Institut Catala de la Salut, BCN, Ambit d'Atencio Primaria, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carmen Expósito
- Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Metropolitana Nord, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primà ria Jordi Gol, Mataró, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Alba MartÃnez
- Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Metropolitana Nord, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primà ria Jordi Gol, Mataró, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Patricia Such
- Health, Safety and Emergencies of SEAT, CUPRA and the Volkswagen Group Companies in Spain, Martorell, Spain
| | - Anita Madir
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Clinical Nutrition, University Hospital Dubrava, University of Zagreb School of Medicine and Faculty of Pharmacy and Biochemistry, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Sönke Detlefsen
- Department of Pathology, Odense University Hospital, and Institute for Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark Odense, Odense, Denmark
| | - Marta Tonon
- Unit of Internal Medicine and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Andrea Martini
- Unit of Internal Medicine and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Ann T Ma
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Judith Pich
- Clinical Trial Unit, Hospital ClÃnic, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Eva Bonfill
- Clinical Trial Unit, Hospital ClÃnic, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Juan
- Clinical Trial Unit, Hospital ClÃnic, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Anna Soria
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Carol
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jordi Gratacós-Ginès
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rosa M Morillas
- Liver Unit, Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, IGTP, Badalona, Spain
| | - Pere Toran
- Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Metropolitana Nord, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primà ria Jordi Gol, Mataró, Barcelona, Spain
| | - J M Navarrete
- Health, Safety and Emergencies of SEAT, CUPRA and the Volkswagen Group Companies in Spain, Martorell, Spain
| | - Antoni Torrejón
- Health, Safety and Emergencies of SEAT, CUPRA and the Volkswagen Group Companies in Spain, Martorell, Spain
| | | | | | - Anita Arslanow
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Harry J de Koning
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | | | - Michael Manns
- Health Sciences, Hannover Medical School MHH, Hannover, Germany
| | - Phillip N Newsome
- National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Rubén Hernáez
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Michael E DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA; Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety, Michael E DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Alina Allen
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Paolo Angeli
- Unit of Internal Medicine and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Robert J de Knegt
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Tom H Karlsen
- Section of Gastroenterology, Department of Transplantation Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; Institute of Clinical Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Peter Galle
- Department of Internal Medicine I, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University, Mainz, Germany
| | - Vincent Wai-Sun Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Núria Fabrellas
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Laurent Castera
- Department of Hepatology, Hôpital Beaujon, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Clichy, Université de Paris, Paris, France
| | - Aleksander Krag
- Centre for Liver Research, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Odense University Hospital, and Institute for Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark Odense, Odense, Denmark
| | - Frank Lammert
- Department of Medicine II, Saarland University Medical Center, Homburg, Germany; Institute for Occupational Medicine and Public Health, Saarland University, Homburg, Germany; Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany
| | - Patrick S Kamath
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Pere Ginès
- Liver Unit Hospital ClÃnic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Institut D'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Centro de Investigación En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas Y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain.
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