Rainfall and runoff time-series trend analysis using LSTM recurrent neural network and wavelet neural network with satellite-based meteorological data: case study of Nzoia hydrologic basin

Improving the simulations of the hydrological model in the karst catchment by integrating the conceptual model with machine learning models

Hydrological modelling can be complex in nonhomogeneous catchments with diverse geological, climatic, and topographic conditions. In this study, an integrated conceptual model including the snow module with machine learning modelling approaches was implemented for daily rainfall-runoff modelling in mostly karst Ljubljanica catchment, Slovenia, which has heterogeneous characteristics and is potentially exposed to extreme events that make the modelling process more challenging and crucial. In this regard, the conceptual model CemaNeige Génie Rural à 6 paramètres Journalier (CemaNeige GR6J) was combined with machine learning models, namely wavelet-based support vector regression (WSVR) and wavelet-based multivariate adaptive regression spline (WMARS) to enhance modelling performance. In this study, the performance of the models was comprehensively investigated, considering their ability to forecast daily extreme runoff. Although CemaNeige GR6J yielded a very good performance, it overestimated low flows. The WSVR and WMARS models yielded poorer performance than the conceptual and hybrid models. The hybrid model approach improved the performance of the machine learning models and the conceptual model by revealing the linkage between variables and runoff in the conceptual model, which provided more accurate results for extreme flows. Accordingly, the hybrid models improved the forecasting performance of the maximum flows up to 40 % and 61 %, and minimum flows up to 73 % and 72 % compared to the CemaNeige GR6J and stand-alone machine learning models. In this regard, the hybrid model approach can enhance the daily rainfall-runoff modelling performance in nonhomogeneous and karst catchments where the hydrological process can be more complicated.

Large-scale seasonal forecasts of river discharge by coupling local and global datasets with a stacked neural network: Case for the Loire River system

Accurate prediction of river discharge is critical for a wide range of sectors, from human activities to environmental hazard management, especially in the face of increasing demand for water resources and climate change. To address this need, a multivariate model that incorporates both local and global data sources, including river and piezometer gauges, sea level, and climate parameters. By employing phase shift analysis, the model optimizes correlations between the target discharge and 12 parameters related to hydrologic and climatic systems, all sampled daily. In addition, a stacked LSTM - a more complex neural network architecture - is used to improve information extraction ability. Exploring river dynamics in the Loire-Bretagne basin and its surroundings, the investigation delves into predictions in daily time steps for one, three, and six months ahead. The resulting forecast features high accuracy and efficiency in predicting river discharge fluctuations, showcasing superior performance in forecasting drought periods over flood peaks. A detailed examination on data used highlights the significance of both local and global datasets in predicting river discharge, where the former dictates short-term predictions, while the latter drives long-range forecasts. Seasonally extended forecasting confirms a strong connection between the forecast leading time and the shift in data correlation, with lower correlation at a lag of 3 months due to seasonal changes affecting forecast quality, compensated by a higher correlation at a longer lag of 6 months. Such mutual effect in this multi-time-step forecasting improves the predictive quality of a six-month horizon, thus encourages progress in long-term prediction to a seasonal scale. The research establishes a practical foundation for effectively utilizing big data to leverage long-term forecasting of environmental dynamics.

Machine learning versus crop growth models: an ally, not a rival

The rapid increases of the global population and climate change pose major challenges to a sustainable production of food to meet consumer demands. Process-based models (PBMs) have long been used in agricultural crop production for predicting yield and understanding the environmental regulation of plant physiological processes and its consequences for crop growth and development. In recent years, with the increasing use of sensor and communication technologies for data acquisition in agriculture, machine learning (ML) has become a popular tool in yield prediction (especially on a large scale) and phenotyping. Both PBMs and ML are frequently used in studies on major challenges in crop production and each has its own advantages and drawbacks. We propose to combine PBMs and ML given their intrinsic complementarity, to develop knowledge- and data-driven modelling (KDDM) with high prediction accuracy as well as good interpretability. Parallel, serial and modular structures are three main modes can be adopted to develop KDDM for agricultural applications. The KDDM approach helps to simplify model parameterization by making use of sensor data and improves the accuracy of yield prediction. Furthermore, the KDDM approach has great potential to expand the boundary of current crop models to allow upscaling towards a farm, regional or global level and downscaling to the gene-to-cell level. The KDDM approach is a promising way of combining simulation models in agriculture with the fast developments in data science while mechanisms of many genetic and physiological processes are still under investigation, especially at the nexus of increasing food production, mitigating climate change and achieving sustainability.

Neural network fusion with fine-grained adaptation learning for turnover prediction

Turnover prediction has an important impact on alleviating the brain drain, which can help organizations reduce costs and enhance competitiveness. Existing studies on turnover are mainly based on analyzing the turnover correlation, using different models to predict various employee turnover scenarios, and only predicting turnover category, while the class imbalance and turnover possibility have been ignored. To this end, in this paper, we propose a novel fine-grained adaptation-based turnover prediction neural network (FATPNN) model. Specifically, we first employ a GRU to learn profile-aware features representations of the personnel samples. Then, to evaluate the contribution of various turnover factors, we further exploit an attention mechanism to model the profile information. Finally, we creatively design a weighted-based probability loss function suitable for our turnover prediction tasks. Experimental results show the effectiveness and universality of the FATPNN model in terms of turnover prediction.

A new application of deep neural network (LSTM) and RUSLE models in soil erosion prediction

Rainfall variation causes frequent unexpected disasters all over the world. Increasing rainfall intensity significantly escalates soil erosion and soil erosion related hazards. Forecasting accurate rainfall helps early detection of soil erosion vulnerability and can minimise the damages by taking appropriate measures caused by severe storms, droughts and floods. This study aims to predict soil erosion probability using the deep learning approach: long short-term memory neural network model (LSTM) and revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model. Daily rainfall data were gathered from five agro-meteorological stations in the Central Highlands of Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2021 and fed into the LSTM model simulation. The LSTM model was forecasted with the time-series monthly rainfall data for a long lead time period, rainfall values for next 36 months in each station. Geo-informatics tools were used to create the rainfall erosivity map layer for the year 2024. The RUSLE model prediction indicates the average annual soil erosion over the Highlands will be 11.92 t/ha/yr. Soil erosion susceptibility map suggests around 30 % of the land area will be categorised as moderate to very-high soil erosion susceptible classes. The resulted map layer was validated using past soil erosion map layers developed for 2000, 2010 and 2019. The soil erosion susceptibility map indicates an accuracy of 0.93 with the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), showing a satisfactory prediction performance. These findings will be helpful in policy-level decision making and researchers can further tested different deep learning models with the RUSLE model to enhance the prediction capability of soil erosion probability.

Runoff Estimation in the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River Using an LSTM Model with Remote Sensing Data

Runoff estimations play an important role in water resource planning and management. Many accomplishments have been made in runoff estimations based on data recorded at meteorological stations; however, the advantages of the use of remotely sensed data in estimating runoff in watersheds for which data are lacking remain to be investigated. In this study, the MOD13A2 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), TRMM3B43 precipitation (P), MOD11A2 land–surface temperature (LST), MOD16A2 evapotranspiration (ET) and hydrological station data were used as data sources with which to estimate the monthly runoff through the application of a fully connected long short–term memory (LSTM) model in the upstream reach of the Heihe River basin in China from 2001 to 2016. The results showed that inputting multiple remote sensing parameters improved the quality of runoff estimation compared to the use of rain gauge observations; an increase in R2 from 0.91 to 0.94 was observed from the implementation of this process, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) showed an improvement from 0.89 to 0.93. The incorporation of rain gauge data as well as satellite data provided a slight improvement in estimating runoff with a respective R2 value of 0.95 and NSE value of 0.94. This indicates that the LSTM model based on remote sensing data has great potential for runoff estimation, and data obtained by remote sensing technology provide an alternative approach for estimating runoff in areas for which available data are lacking.

Use of Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory for Seepage Prediction at Tarbela Dam, KP, Pakistan

Estimating the quantity of seepage through the foundation and body of a dam using proper health and safety monitoring is critical to the effective management of disaster risk in a reservoir downstream of the dam. In this study, a deep learning model was constructed to predict the extent of seepage through Pakistan’s Tarbela dam, the world’s second largest clay and rock dam. The dataset included hydro-climatological, geophysical, and engineering characteristics for peak-to-peak water inflows into the dam from 2014 to 2020. In addition, the data are time series, recurring neural networks (RNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) as time series algorithms. The RNN–LSTM model has an average mean square error of 0.12, and a model performance of 0.9451, with minimal losses and high accuracy, resulting in the best-predicted dam seepage result. Damage was projected using a deep learning system that addressed the limitations of the model, the difficulties of calculating human activity schedules, and the need for a different set of input data to make good predictions.

Time series forecasting for uni- variant data using hybrid GA-OLSTM model and performance evaluations

Time series forecasting of uni-variant rainfall data is done using a hybrid genetic algorithm integrated with optimized long-short term memory (GA-OLSTM) model. The parameters included for the valuation of the efficiency of the considered model, were mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), cosine similarity (CS) and correlation coefficient (r). With various epochs like 5, 10, 15 and 20, the optimal window size and the number of units were observed using the GA search algorithm which was found to be (49, 9), (12, 8), (40, 8), and (36, 2) respectively. The computed MSE, RMSE, CS and r for 10 epochs were found to be 0.006, 0.078, 0.910 and 0.858 respectively for the LSTM model, whereas the same parameters were computed using the Hybrid GA-OLSTM model was 0.004, 0.063, 0.947 and 0.917 respectively. The experimental results expressed that the Hybrid GA-OLSTM model gave significantly better results comparing the LSTM model for 10 epochs has been discussed in this research article.

Prediction of Time Series Gene Expression and Structural Analysis of Gene Regulatory Networks Using Recurrent Neural Networks

Methods for time series prediction and classification of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from gene expression data have been treated separately so far. The recent emergence of attention-based recurrent neural network (RNN) models boosted the interpretability of RNN parameters, making them appealing for the understanding of gene interactions. In this work, we generated synthetic time series gene expression data from a range of archetypal GRNs and we relied on a dual attention RNN to predict the gene temporal dynamics. We show that the prediction is extremely accurate for GRNs with different architectures. Next, we focused on the attention mechanism of the RNN and, using tools from graph theory, we found that its graph properties allow one to hierarchically distinguish different architectures of the GRN. We show that the GRN responded differently to the addition of noise in the prediction by the RNN and we related the noise response to the analysis of the attention mechanism. In conclusion, this work provides a way to understand and exploit the attention mechanism of RNNs and it paves the way to RNN-based methods for time series prediction and inference of GRNs from gene expression data.

Soil Erosion Susceptibility Prediction in Railway Corridors Using RUSLE, Soil Degradation Index and the New Normalized Difference Railway Erosivity Index (NDReLI)

This study presents a remote sensing-based index for the prediction of soil erosion susceptibility within railway corridors. The empirically derived index, Normalized Difference Railway Erosivity Index (NDReLI), is based on the Landsat-8 SWIR spectral reflectances and takes into account the bare soil and vegetation reflectances especially in semi-arid environments. For the case study of the Botswana Railway Corridor (BRC), the NDReLI results are compared with the RUSLE and the Soil Degradation Index (SDI). The RUSLE model showed that within the BRC, the mean annual soil loss index was at 0.139 ton ha−1 year−1, and only about 1% of the corridor area is susceptible to high (1.423–3.053 ton ha−1 year−1) and very high (3.053–5.854 ton ha−1 year−1) soil loss, while SDI estimated 19.4% of the railway corridor as vulnerable to soil degradation. NDReLI results based on SWIR1 (1.57–1.65 μm) predicted the most vulnerable areas, with a very high erosivity index (0.36–0.95), while SWIR2 (2.11–2.29 μm) predicted the same regions at a high erosivity index (0.13–0.36). From empirical validation using previous soil erosion events within the BRC, the proposed NDReLI performed better than the RUSLE and SDI models in the prediction of the spatial locations and extents of susceptibility to soil erosion within the BRC.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Rainfall–Runoff Modelling of the Soan River Basin, Pakistan

Rainfall–runoff modelling has been at the essence of research in hydrology for a long time. Every modern technique found its way to uncover the dynamics of rainfall–runoff relation for different basins of the world. Different techniques of machine learning have been extensively applied to understand this hydrological phenomenon. However, the literature is still scarce in cases of extensive research work on the comparison of streamline machine learning (ML) techniques and impact of wavelet pre-processing on their performance. Therefore, this study compares the performance of single decision tree (SDT), tree boost (TB), decision tree forest (DTF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and gene expression programming (GEP) in rainfall–runoff modelling of the Soan River basin, Pakistan. Additionally, the impact of wavelet pre-processing through maximal overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT) on the model performance has been assessed. Through a comprehensive comparative analysis of 110 model settings, we concluded that the MODWT-based DTF model has yielded higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.90 at lag order (Lo4). The coefficient of determination for the model was also highest among all the models while least root mean square error (RMSE) value of 23.79 m3/s was also produced by MODWT-DTF at Lo4. The study also draws inter-technique comparison of the model performance as well as intra-technique differentiation of modelling accuracy.

Analysis of Landscape Ecological Planning Based on the High-Order Multiwavelet Neural Network Algorithm

Landscape architecture has both natural and social properties, which is the embodiment of people protecting the natural environment. Since the industrial revolution, the modern industry has developed rapidly. It has increased the living standard of people and consumed a lot of natural resources such as forest and energy. The ecological environment has been greatly damaged, and the landscape of gardens has been affected. Therefore, it is of great significance to find a method to evaluate the landscape ecology and plan the landscape ecology. This paper proposes a new high-order wavelet neural network algorithm combining wavelet analysis and artificial neural network. A model of ecological evaluation of landscape based on high-order wavelet neural network algorithm is proposed to evaluate the landscape ecology and provide reference data for the ecological planning of the landscape. The results show that the training times of the wavelet neural network to achieve the target accuracy are 3600 times less than those of the BP neural network. The MSE and MAE of the WNN are 0.0639 and 0.1501, respectively. The average error of the model to the comprehensive evaluation index of the landscape ecology is 0.005. The accuracy of the model to evaluate the sustainability of landscape land resources is 98.67%. The above results show that the model based on the wavelet neural network can effectively and accurately complete the evaluation of landscape ecology and then provide a decision-making basis for landscape ecological planning, which is of high practicability.