A Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Venous Leg Ulcers

Individualized Risk Prediction for Improved Chronic Wound Management

Significance: Chronic wounds are associated with significant morbidity, marked loss of quality of life, and considerable economic burden. Evidence-based risk prediction to guide improved wound prevention and treatment is limited by the complexity in their etiology, clinical underreporting, and a lack of studies using large high-quality datasets. Recent Advancements: The objective of this review is to summarize key components and challenges in the development of personalized risk prediction tools for both prevention and management of chronic wounds, while highlighting several innovations in the development of better risk stratification. Critical Issues: Regression-based risk prediction approaches remain important for assessment of prognosis and risk stratification in chronic wound management. Advances in statistical computing have boosted the development of several promising machine learning (ML) and other semiautomated classification tools. These methods may be better placed to handle large number of wound healing risk factors from large datasets, potentially resulting in better risk prediction when combined with conventional methods and clinical experience and expertise. Future Directions: Where the number of predictors is large and heterogenous, the correlations between various risk factors complex, and very large data sets are available, ML may prove a powerful adjuvant for risk stratifying patients predisposed to chronic wounds. Conventional regression-based approaches remain important, particularly where the number of predictors is relatively small. Translating estimated risk derived from ML algorithms into practical prediction tools for use in clinical practice remains challenging.

Challenges around quantifying uncertainty in a holistic approach to hard-to-heal wound management: Health economic perspective

Treatment of hard-to-heal wounds involves a holistic approach for choosing between available treatment options. However, evidence for informing these choices is sparse, introducing uncertainty into decisions about the optimum treatment pathways that reflect the vast heterogeneity in this patient population. This paper discusses the existing clinical and health economic literature in order to provide insight into sources of uncertainty in the evaluation of the holistic approach to management of the hard-to-heal wounds, and how this uncertainty can be appropriately reflected in research. We identified three key sources of uncertainty in the evaluation of chronic wound treatments, namely heterogeneity in aetiology and patient populations, heterogeneity in treatment pathways, and challenges around capturing all relevant outcomes. Reflecting these complexities requires sophisticated modelling of treatment sequencing and long-term outcomes. The paper discusses how the scope specification, scenario analyses, and sensitivity analyses can be used to fully characterise analytical uncertainty.

A narrative review of the epidemiology and economics of chronic wounds

Chronic wounds have a debilitating effect on the quality of life of many individuals, and the large economic impact on health system budgets warrants greater attention in policy making and condition management than is currently evident. The aim of this narrative review is to summarize the nature and extent of the chronic wound problem that confronts health systems across the world. The first section is used to highlight the underlying epidemiology relating to chronic wounds, while the second explores the economic costs associated with them and the relative efficiency of measures designed to manage them.

Cost-effectiveness of superabsorbent wound dressing versus standard of care in patients with moderate-to-highly exuding leg ulcers

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness/utility of a superabsorbent wound dressing (Zetuvit Plus Silicone) versus the current standard of care (SoC) dressings, from the NHS perspective in England, in patients with moderate-to-high exudating leg ulcers.

METHOD

A model-based economic evaluation was conducted to analyse the cost-effectiveness/utility of a new intervention. We used a microsimulation state-transition model with a time horizon of six months and a cycle length of one week. The model uses a combination of incidence base and risk prediction approach to inform transition probabilities. All clinical efficiency, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), cost and resource use inputs were informed by conducting a systematic review of UK specific literature.

RESULTS

Treatment with the superabsorbent dressing leads to a total expected cost per patient for a six month period of £2887, associated with 15.933 expected quality adjusted life weeks and 10.9% healing rate. When treated with SoC, the total expected cost per patient for a six month period is £3109, 15.852 expected quality adjusted life weeks and 8% healing rate. Therefore, the superabsorbent dressing leads to an increase in quality-adjusted life weeks, an increase in healing rate by 2.9% and a cost-saving of £222 per single average patient over six months. Results of several scenario analyses, one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of base-case results. The probabilistic analysis confirmed that, in any combination of variable values, the superabsorbent dressing leads to cost saving results.

CONCLUSION

According to the model prediction, the superabsorbent dressing leads to an increase in health benefits and a decrease in associated costs of treatment.