Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan

OsCKq1 Regulates Heading Date and Grain Weight in Rice in Response to Day Length

BACKGROUND

Photoperiod sensitivity is among the most important agronomic traits of rice, as it determines local and seasonal adaptability and plays pivotal roles in determining yield and other key agronomic characteristics. By controlling the photoperiod, early-maturing rice can be cultivated to shorten the breeding cycle, thereby reducing the risk of yield losses due to unpredictable climate change. Furthermore, early-maturing and high-yielding rice needs to be developed to ensure food security for a rapidly growing population. Early-maturing and high-yielding rice should be developed to fulfill these requirements. OsCKq1 encodes the casein kinase1 protein in rice. OsCKq1 is a gene that is activated by photophosphorylation when Ghd7, which suppresses flowering under long-day conditions, is activated.

RESULTS

This study investigates how OsCKq1 affects heading in rice. OsCKq1-GE rice was analyzed the function of OsCKq1 was investigated by comparing the expression levels of genes related to flowering regulation. The heading date of OsCKq1-GE lines was earlier (by about 3 to 5 days) than that of Ilmi (a rice cultivar, Oryza sativa spp. japonica), and the grain length, grain width, 1,000-grain weight, and yield increased compared to Ilmi. Furthermore, the culm and panicle lengths of OsCKq1-GE lines were either equal to or longer than those of Ilmi.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research demonstrates that OsCKq1 plays a pivotal role in regulating rice yield and photoperiod sensitivity. Specifically, under long-day conditions, OsCKq1-GE rice exhibited reduced OsCKq1 mRNA levels alongside increased mRNA levels of Hd3a, Ehd1, and RFT1, genes known for promoting flowering, leading to earlier heading compared to Ilmi. Moreover, we observed an increase in seed size. These findings underscore OsCKq1 as a promising target for developing early-maturing and high-yielding rice cultivars, highlighting the potential of CRISPR/Cas9 technology in enhancing crop traits.

Mitigating climate change and pandemic impacts on global food security: dual sustainable agriculture approach (2S approach)

MAIN CONCLUSION

Simultaneous application of two sustainability approaches such as the application of biofertilizers to GM plants and microbe bioengineering to enhance physiological response and beneficial interaction with GM plants may have a significant impact on strengthening global food security amid climate change and the pandemic. The second sustainable development goal (SDG 02, Zero Hunger) aims global agricultural sustainability and food security challenges. The agriculture sector has been an integral part of developing countries for millions of farmers and their families. Their contribution provides stability of raw matter related to food availability. But climate change, higher population growth and worldwide pandemics are the main obstacles to food quality, higher crop productivity and global food security. Scientists are concerned with the manifestation of agriculture sustainability in the modern crop management approach to resolving the issues. It is the only way to higher yield productivity by protecting the environment, conserving natural resources, and slowing climate change. Several strategies can be an option to implement, yet the proposed two sustainability approach or 2S approach will be the significant way toward the goal of zero hunger. The first sustainability approach is an application of genetically modified (S1: GMO) Plants and the other is an application of beneficiary plant growth-promoting microbes (S2: Biofertilizers) to the plants for both higher crops and maintenance of the environment. This study summarizes the essential points of S1 and S2 for the widespread utilization of the 2S approach in agriculture and recommends the potential alternatives to be implemented to produce food for all. Simultaneous application of the 2S approach can defeat all threats to gain sustainability in agriculture.

Genetic variation and population structure of a widely distributed damselfly (Ischnura senegalensis)

Ischnura senegalensis Rambur, 1842 is among the most widespread damselfly species in the world. Unlike dragonflies with strong migration abilities, I. senegalensis have limited dispersing abilities. Gene flow among I. senegalensis populations may be greatly influenced by anthropogenic disturbance, fragmented suitable habitats, sea straits, or even global warming. In this study, to investigate the genetic diversity of I. senegalensis populations, we sequenced and collected 498 cytochrome oxidase I sequences across the Old World. Haplotype network analysis showed 51 haplotypes and I. senegalensis could be grouped into four regions (Afrotropical region, Oriental region, main Islands of Japan, and the Ryukyu Islands), each of which contains different dominant haplotypes. Based on molecular variance analysis, we found that populations from the Afrotropical region have quite a low gene flow with the Asian populations (except Yemen). Furthermore, rice cultivation may aid the dispersion of I. senegalensis in the oriental region. Populations from the Ryukyu Islands show the highest genetic diversity, which may be due to the geological separation among islands. Our results prove that I. senegalensis has great genetic diversity among different populations across the world.

Causality and interdependencies among sustainable development goals: assessing the nexus of agriculture, environment, and finance development

This study examines the causal relationships and interdependencies among three dimensions of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Africa: environmental factors, agricultural production (for societal aspects), and finance development (for economic aspects). The study focuses on three regions, the whole SSA (Sub-Saharan Africa, excluding the high-income countries), West-Central Africa (W-CA), and South and East Africa (S-EA), and uses data from 1970 to 2018. It uses vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function (IRF), and analysis of causality direction methods. The findings indicate bidirectional causal effects among the three SDG dimensions in Africa. Finance development factors influence both environmental and agricultural factors, while agro-production factors significantly affect both finance development and environmental factors. This study concludes that bidirectional causal effects exist within these dimensions, confirming their interdependencies and emphasizing the need for integrating these dimensions into African sustainable development goals. Recommendations include incorporating green aspects in financing development plans and establishing regulatory authorities to effectively coordinate and control these sustainable dimensions at both the Sub-Saharan Africa and state levels, ensuring impactful greenhouse and sustainable agriculture development for sustainable food production.

Examining the impacts of climate change and political instability on rice production: empirical evidence from Nigeria

The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.

How do carbon emissions, economic growth, population growth, trade openness and employment influence food security? Recent evidence from the East Africa

East Africa has a substantially greater rate of food insecurity than other regions of the world. Scenarios of climate change and other macroeconomic variables are important contributors to food insecurity in East Africa. Using data spanning from 1990 to 2020, this study looked into the influence of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, economic growth, population growth, trade openness, and agricultural employment on food security in the East Africa. The fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models were used in this study. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test's findings indicated that the study variables have an equilibrium long-term connections. The estimation findings from the FMOLS and DOLS models showed that an increase in CO₂ emissions increases food security in the East Africa over the long term. According to other findings, long-term food security is positively impacted by economic expansion, population growth, trade openness, and employment in agriculture. However, trade openness has a detrimental long-lasting effect on food security. Future research directions, research limitations, and policy implications are discussed.

Modelling the impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in East Africa: evidence from heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis

Climate change has become an issue of concern for sustainable agriculture production. East African nations are heavily reliant on the agriculture sector, which accounts for a substantial amount of their gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Due to climatic fluctuations, the output of the sector became very unpredictable. Hence, this study investigates the effects of climate change on cereal crop production in nine East African nations between 1990 and 2018. The study implemented pooled mean group (PMG) approach to examine the long-run and short-run dynamic impacts of the varying climatic circumstances on the output of cereal crops. The results reveal that rainfall and carbon emissions have favourable and significant long-run effects on cereal crop output, even though their short-run impacts are negligible. Additionally, cultivated land area and rural population have a constructive role in enhancing agricultural output both in the long-run and short-run. However, average temperatures have negative repercussions on cereal crop production in the long-run and short-run, even though the magnitude of sensitivity is greater in the short-run. Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) validated the robustness of the long-run findings of the PMG technique. Besides, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality outcomes indicate that cereal crop output has a bidirectional causality with temperature, carbon emissions, and cropped area. The study further demonstrated unidirectional causation from rural population to cereal crop yield. The study recommends that East African policymakers improve the quality of farm inputs, the adoption of climate-resilient farming practices, the development of water retention facilities and the establishment of crop diversification initiatives.

Examining the effects of climate change and political instability on maize production in Somalia

Agricultural production is sensitive to climate variability, so climate change-agriculture sector nexus is topical in developing countries. To this end, this study examines the impact of climate change variables-rainfall and temperature-and non-climatic factors on maize production in Somalia for the period between 1980 and 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test, dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), variance decomposition(VD), and impulse response function (IRF). The empirical results of the ARDL bound test confirmed the presence of long-run cointegration between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the long-run results revealed that average temperature, average rainfall, and political instability significantly inhibit maize production in the long and short runs, but rainfall has a favorable effect on maize production in the short run. Furthermore, rural population and land area under maize cultivation have negative and positive effects on maize production in the long run, respectively-albeit they are statistically insignificant. The empirical results of the study are robust to different econometric methods. Based on these findings, the study emphasizes the importance of the de-escalation of conflicts and the implementation of irrigation facilities which will enhance the productivity of maize crop production.

The role of climate change in food security; empirical evidence over Punjab regions, Pakistan

Climate change is bringing drastic changes to the food availability, accessibility, quality, and stability in the world. Pakistan heavily relies on production of wheat for food security. This study investigates the role of climate change on food security over Punjab regions, Pakistan, from 1979-2020. The study utilized the total production of wheat to measure food security. Moreover, the study utilized mean, maximum, minimum temperature, wind speed, and rainfall as a measurement of climate change. This study utilized auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test cointegration approach to test the long-run cointegration, while ARDL model is applied to investigate the short-run relationship among modeled variables. This study adopted Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Parron (PP) test to check the stationarity of the data. Moreover, the study ensures reliability and validity of the model by utilizing Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation, Breusch-Pagan-Godfry HSK, and Ramsey RESET test. This study found that wheat cultivated area (0.46*), total irrigated area (2.67***), total un-irrigated area (1.93***), and total area sown ([1.0809**) have a positive and significant long-run impact on food production in all regions of Punjab Pakistan. However, while average, the maximum and minimum temperature is negatively and significantly associated with food production in all regions of Punjab (- 1.07**; - 3.33***; - 1.84**), except northern Punjab, where maximum temperature affects positively food production Punjab. Rainfall negatively and significantly affects food production in northern (- 0.34**) and central and southern (- 0.13***) Punjab. Furthermore, wind speed negatively affects food production in all regions of Punjab (- 0.22**; - 0.21*; - 0.11**), except northern Punjab. This study implies that government should develop policies to increase irrigation facilities and loan facilities to increase the total area sown that will help to increase wheat yield and ensure food security. Moreover, the government should devise policies for large-scale plantations to minimize climate change impacts. The study also suggests new improved varieties of the wheat crop that can survive and flourish in the presence of adverse climatic changes, high temperature, and high wind speed.

A district-level analysis for measuring the effects of climate change on production of agricultural crops, i.e., wheat and paddy: evidence from India

The present study aims to examine the impact of climate change on wheat and rice yield in Punjab, India, during 1981-2017. The study employs fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG) approaches. The Pedroni cointegration has established a long-run relationship of climate variables with rice and wheat crops. FMOLS and DOLS models show that minimum temperature has a positive effect on both wheat and rice. In contrast, the maximum temperature is found to be negatively contributing to both crops. Rainfall has a significant adverse impact on the production of wheat. In the study period, seasonal rainfall has been found detrimental for the production of wheat and rice crops, indicating that excess rainfall proved counterproductive. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test has revealed a unidirectional causality running from minimum temperature, rainfall, and maximum temperature for rice and wheat production. The findings of the study suggest that the government should invest in developing stress-tolerant varieties of wheat and rice, managing crop residuals to curb other environmental effects, and sustaining natural resources for ensuring food security.

The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Asian countries: a heterogeneous panel data approach

While climate change is having serious impacts on agriculture and may require ongoing adaptation, short-run threats to global food security are also crucial for developing countries. We use dynamic and asymmetric panel autoregressive distributed lag estimators to investigate how the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity vary depending upon the short run and long run in Asia over the period of 1980-2016. The results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between agricultural productivity and climate change variables; however, only CO₂ emissions could be linked to agricultural productivity in the short run. Moreover, while the direction of this effect is positive for the short run, it turns into negative in the long run confirming that carbon fertilization in the atmosphere can to some extent have a positive effect on agricultural productivity.

Foliar Growth Regulator Sprays Induced Tolerance to Combined Heat Stress by Enhancing Physiological and Biochemical Responses in Rice

Rice yield has decreased due to climate variability and change in Colombia. Plant growth regulators have been used as a strategy to mitigate heat stress in different crops. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of foliar applications of four growth regulators [auxins (AUX), brassinosteroids (BR), cytokinins (CK), or gibberellins (GA)] on physiological (stomatal conductance, total chlorophyll content, Fv/Fm ratio, plant canopy temperature, and relative water content) and biochemical (Malondialdehyde (MDA) and proline contents) variables in two commercial rice genotypes exposed to combined heat stress (high day and nighttime temperatures). Two separate experiments were carried out using plants of two rice genotypes, Fedearroz 67 ("F67") and Fedearroz 2000 ("F2000") for the first and second experiments, respectively. Both trials were analyzed together as a series of experiments. The established treatments were as follows: absolute control (AC) (rice plants grown under optimal temperatures (30/25°C day/nighttime temperatures), heat stress control (SC) [rice plants only exposed to combined heat stress (40/30°C)], and stressed rice plants and sprayed twice (5 days before and after heat stress) with a plant growth regulator (stress+AUX, stress+BR, stress+CK, or stress+GA). The results showed that foliar CK sprays enhanced the total chlorophyll content in both cultivars (3.25 and 3.65 mg g-1 fresh weight for "F67" and "F2000" rice plants, respectively) compared to SC plants (2.36 and 2.56 mg g-1 fresh weight for "F67," and "F2000" rice plants, respectively). Foliar CK application also improved stomatal conductance mainly in "F2000" rice plants compared to their heat stress control (499.25 vs.150.60 mmol m-2s-1). Foliar BR or CK sprays reduced plant canopy temperature between 2 and 3°C and MDA content in plants under heat stress. The relative tolerance index suggested that foliar CK (97.69%), and BR (60.73%) applications helped to mitigate combined heat stress mainly in "F2000" rice plants. In conclusion, foliar BR or CK applications can be considered an agronomic strategy to help to ameliorate the negative effect of combined heat stress conditions on the physiological behavior of rice plants.