Dynamic analysis of health-related factors with its impacts on economic growth

Study of the Economic, Environmental, and Social Factors Affecting Chinese Residents' Health Based on Machine Learning

The Healthy China Strategy puts realistic demands for residents' health levels, but the reality is that various factors can affect health. In order to clarify which factors have a great impact on residents' health, based on China's provincial panel data from 2011 to 2018, this paper selects 17 characteristic variables from the three levels of economy, environment, and society and uses the XG boost algorithm and Random forest algorithm based on recursive feature elimination to determine the influencing variables. The results show that at the economic level, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size, industrial added value, population density, and per capita GDP have a greater impact on the health of residents. At the environmental level, coal consumption, energy consumption, total wastewater discharge, and solid waste discharge have a greater impact on the health level of residents. Therefore, the Chinese government should formulate targeted measures at both economic and environmental levels, which is of great significance to realizing the Healthy China strategy.

THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC LOCKDOWN ON AIR POLLUTION, HEALTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: SYSTEM DYNAMICS ANALYSIS

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the paper is checking the hypothesis on the linking between consequences of pandemic lockdown and air pollution, public health, and economic growth.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Materials and methods: for prediction and modelling of the pandemic lockdown's impact on the air pollution, health, and economic growth with the system dynamics analysis and software Vensim; for the analysis, the authors used the methods as follows: bibliometric analysis with Scopus Tools Analysis and software VOSviewer.

RESULTS

Results: The findings confirmed that the current rate of infected from growing disease was 11%. If quarantine continues the rate of infected from the growing disease will be 15%. If the quarantine cancels the rate of infected from the growing disease will be 5%, and the declining of GDP increment will be higher, than in scenario with quarantine.

CONCLUSION

Conclusions: The findings confirmed the hypothesis that lockdown has the negative impact on the economic, social, and ecological growth of the country. At the same time, in the case, if the government cancel the quarantine, the declining of GDP increment will be higher, and the rate of infected from the growing disease will be the highest - 15%. In this case, the government should provide the quarantine regime and strengthen the control of the compliance.