Dynamics of threatened mammalian distribution in Iran’s protected areas under climate change

Habitat Loss in the IUCN Extent: Climate Change-Induced Threat on the Red Goral (Naemorhedus baileyi) in the Temperate Mountains of South Asia

Climate change has severely impacted many species, causing rapid declines or extinctions within their essential ecological niches. This deterioration is expected to worsen, particularly in remote high-altitude regions like the Himalayas, which are home to diverse flora and fauna, including many mountainous ungulates. Unfortunately, many of these species lack adaptive strategies to cope with novel climatic conditions. The Red Goral (Naemorhedus baileyi) is a cliff-dwelling species classified as "Vulnerable" by the IUCN due to its small population and restricted range extent. This species has the most restricted range of all goral species, residing in the temperate mountains of northeastern India, northern Myanmar, and China. Given its restricted range and small population, this species is highly threatened by climate change and habitat disruptions, making habitat mapping and modeling crucial for effective conservation. This study employs an ensemble approach (BRT, GLM, MARS, and MaxEnt) in species distribution modeling to assess the distribution, habitat suitability, and connectivity of this species, addressing critical gaps in its understanding. The findings reveal deeply concerning trends, as the model identified only 21,363 km2 (13.01%) of the total IUCN extent as suitable habitat under current conditions. This limited extent is alarming, as it leaves the species with very little refuge to thrive. Furthermore, this situation is compounded by the fact that only around 22.29% of this identified suitable habitat falls within protected areas (PAs), further constraining the species' ability to survive in a protected landscape. The future projections paint even degraded scenarios, with a predicted decline of over 34% and excessive fragmentation in suitable habitat extent. In addition, the present study identifies precipitation seasonality and elevation as the primary contributing predictors to the distribution of this species. Furthermore, the study identifies nine designated transboundary PAs within the IUCN extent of the Red Goral and the connectivity among them to highlight the crucial role in supporting the species' survival over time. Moreover, the Dibang Wildlife Sanctuary (DWLS) and Hkakaborazi National Park are revealed as the PAs with the largest extent of suitable habitat in the present scenario. Furthermore, the highest mean connectivity was found between DWLS and Mehao Wildlife Sanctuary (0.0583), while the lowest connectivity was observed between Kamlang Wildlife Sanctuary and Namdapha National Park (0.0172). The study also suggests strategic management planning that is a vital foundation for future research and conservation initiatives, aiming to ensure the long-term survival of the species in its natural habitat.

The Activity Patterns and Grouping Characteristics of the Remaining Goitered Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) in an Isolated Habitat of Western China

Wildlife activity patterns, which reveal the daily allocation of time and energy, are crucial for understanding survival pressures, adaptive strategies, and behavioral characteristics in different environments. Among ungulates, grouping behavior is a prevalent adaptive trait that reflects the population structure, mating systems, and life history strategies formed over long-term evolutionary processes. This study aimed to elucidate the daily activity patterns and grouping characteristics of the rare goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) in the Helan Mountains of western China from 2022 to 2023 using camera trap monitoring. With a total of 3869 camera days of effective trapping, we recorded 442 independent detections of goitered gazelles. The results revealed the following: (1) Goitered gazelle is primarily active during the day, showing an activity pattern similar to crepuscular animals, with two activity peaks occurring after dawn and before dusk. (2) Daily activity patterns showed both seasonal and sex differences. In the warm season, morning activity peaks occurred earlier, and afternoon peaks occurred later compared to the cold season. The overlap in daily activity patterns between females and males in the warm season was lower than that in the cold season, and this trend persisted throughout the year. (3) The number of times different types of groups were observed varied significantly, with single males and single females accounting for a larger proportion of all observed groups. There was no significant difference in group size across seasons, with groups typically consisting of 1-2 individuals. Our study provides detailed insights into the temporal ecology and population structure of goitered gazelles in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. This information will guide the identification of future conservation priorities and the development of management plans for the reserve.

Seasonal Diet Composition of Goitered Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) in an Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Western China

Global climate change, habitat fragmentation, and human interference have resulted in a significant, ongoing decline in the population of goitered gazelles. Effective conservation strategies require an understanding of resource requirements of threatened species, such as dietary needs. Therefore, we aimed to elucidate the food composition and seasonal dietary changes of goitered gazelles through microhistological analyses of fresh feces. Fabaceae (11.5%), Gramineae (9.4%), Chenopodiaceae (20.2%), Asteraceae (10.1%), and Rosaceae (19.5%) formed the primary dietary components of goitered gazelle. Additionally, Krascheninnikovia arborescens (13.4%) and Prunus sibirica (16.3%) were identified as the key forage plants. Forbs (50.4%) were the predominant plants for grazing throughout the year, particularly in the spring (72.9%). The proportion of trees in the diet was highest in the autumn (36.7%) and comparatively lower in other seasons. Furthermore, the proportions of shrubs (22.0%) and graminoids (14.8%) both reached their peaks in the winter. Our findings indicate that goitered gazelles strategically forage seasonally to cope with resource bottlenecks, enhancing their adaptability to arid and semi-arid habitats. Our study provides essential ecological information for the conservation of goitered gazelles and emphasizes the importance of dietary studies of species of ecological significance in environmentally sensitive areas.