CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES: NEW ETIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS

Ageing, information and the magical number seven

Concepts from information theory are applied to human ageing. An equation is derived, based on the general properties of information systems, which closely predicts the mortality rate in old age. The same equation predicts that infection will be increasingly severe when first exposure to micro-organisms is delayed leading to diseases which peak in early and middle age. A parameter of the equation is the level of redundancy in human information processing. Observed mortality rates show that this is sevenfold and it is suggested that seven is a fundamental dimensionless biological constant.

The age incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

A mathematical model of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is presented which is based on the assumptions that: 1) malignant clones of lymphoblasts arise by spontaneous mutation; 2) this is normally prevented by repair systems which either cause intracellular DNA repair or eliminate the malignant clone; and 3) the repair systems are fallible and their performance decays at random with time. If the major drive to lymphocyte division is microbial antigens then the model produces a reasonable fit to published data on the age distribution of ALL. Furthermore the model offers an explanation for the apparent increase in the incidence of ALL which is associated with improved social conditions.

Autoimmunity: a decision theory model

Concepts from statistical decision theory were used to analyse the detection problem faced by the body's immune system in mounting immune responses to bacteria of the normal body flora. Given that these bacteria are potentially harmful, that there can be extensive cross reaction between bacterial antigens and host tissues, and that the decisions are made in uncertainty, there is a finite chance of error in immune response leading to autoimmune disease. A model of ageing in the immune system is proposed that is based on random decay in components of the decision process, leading to a steep age dependent increase in the probability of error. The age incidence of those autoimmune diseases which peak in early and middle life can be explained as the resultant of two processes: an exponentially falling curve of incidence of first contact with common bacteria, and a rapidly rising error function. Epidemiological data on the variation of incidence with social class, sibship order, climate and culture can be used to predict the likely site of carriage and mode of spread of the causative bacteria. Furthermore, those autoimmune diseases precipitated by common viral respiratory tract infections might represent reactions to nasopharyngeal bacterial overgrowth, and this theory can be tested using monoclonal antibodies to search the bacterial isolates for cross reacting antigens. If this model is correct then prevention of autoimmune disease by early exposure to low doses of bacteria might be possible.