The prognostic value of the P wave morphology in the discharge ECG in a 5-year follow-up study after myocardial infarction

P-wave morphology: underlying mechanisms and clinical implications

Increasing awareness of atrial fibrillation (AF) and its impact on public health revives interest in identification of noninvasive markers of predisposition to AF and ECG-based risk stratification. P-wave duration is generally accepted as the most reliable noninvasive marker of atrial conduction, and its prolongation has been associated with history of AF. However, patients with paroxysmal AF without structural heart disease may not have any impressive P-wave prolongation, thus suggesting that global conduction slowing is not an obligatory requirement for development of AF. P-wave morphology is therefore drawing increasing attention as it reflects the three-dimensional course of atrial depolarization propagation and detects local conduction disturbances. The factors that determine P-wave appearance include (1) the origin of the sinus rhythm that defines right atrial depolarization vector, (2) localization of left atrial breakthrough that defines left atrial depolarization vector, and (3) the shape and size of atrial chambers. However, it is often difficult to distinguish whether P-wave abnormalities are caused by atrial enlargement or interatrial conduction delay. Recent advances in endocardial mapping technologies have linked certain P-wave morphologies with interatrial conduction patterns and the function of major interatrial conduction routes. The value of P-wave morphology extends beyond cardiac arrhythmias associated with atrial conduction delay and can be used for prediction of clinical outcome of a wide range of cardiovascular disorders, including ischemic heart disease and congestive heart failure.

Abnormal P-wave morphology is a predictor of atrial fibrillation development and cardiac death in MADIT II patients

BACKGROUND

Several ECG-based approaches have been shown to add value when risk-stratifying patients with congestive heart failure, but little attention has been paid to the prognostic value of abnormal atrial depolarization in this context. The aim of this study was to noninvasively analyze the atrial depolarization phase to identify markers associated with increased risk of mortality, deterioration of heart failure, and development of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a high-risk population with advanced congestive heart failure and a history of acute myocardial infarction.

METHODS

Patients included in the Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial II (MADIT II) with sinus rhythm at baseline were studied (n = 802). Unfiltered and band-pass filtered signal-averaged P waves were analyzed to determine orthogonal P-wave morphology (prespecified types 1, 2, and 3/atypical), P-wave duration, and RMS20. The association between P-wave parameters and data on the clinical course and cardiac events during a mean follow-up of 20 months was analyzed.

RESULTS

P-wave duration was 139 + or - 23 ms and the RMS20 was 1.9 + or - 1.1 microV. None of these parameters was significantly associated with poor cardiac outcome or AF development. After adjustment for clinical covariates, abnormal P-wave morphology was found to be independently predictive of nonsudden cardiac death (HR 2.66; 95% CI 1.41-5.04, P = 0.0027) and AF development (HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.10-2.79, P = 0.019).

CONCLUSION

Abnormalities in P-wave morphology recorded from orthogonal leads in surface ECG are independently predictive of increased risk of nonsudden cardiac death and AF development in MADIT II patients.

The mortality predictive power of discharge electrocardiogram after first acute myocardial infarction

The prognostic value of discharge ECG was studied in 457 patients after their first acute myocardial infarction. Thirteen different ECG variables were studied on the discharge ECG. When cumulative 4-year survival rates were calculated by standard life-table method for each variable individually, the following variables had statistically significant prognostic power: PTF (P terminal force), PTFA (P terminal frontal axis), AF (atrial fibrillation), ST depression, ST elevation, QRS duration, and the combination block (LBBB/RBBB + LAHB/LPHB). The variables with no statistically significant predictive power were: QTc, LBBB or RBBB, LAHB or LPHB, AV block, T wave angle, T negativity, and sigma R. The relative risks for the most important variables in the discrete life-table model were: PTF 3.4, QRS duration 3.3, ST depression 2.6, PTFA 2.5, and ST elevation 2.2. In further analysis a model with only three ECG variables (PTF, ST depression, and ST elevation) was developed which stratified the study population in categories with 1.9% to 75.5% estimated 4-year survival rates.

Influence of an upward shift in the V1 electrode position on the P-terminal force

In this study, an attempt was made to determine how the P-terminal force (P-tf) was influenced by an upward shift of the V1 electrode in 508 normal subjects, 101 patients with hypertension, 22 with chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD), and 55 with old myocardial infarction. An abnormal V1 P-tf (less than or equal to -0.03 mm . sec) was observed in 3.1% of normal subjects, 11.9% of cases with hypertension, 9.1% of cases with COLD, and 21.8% of cases with old myocardial infarction. By shifting the electrode position one intercostal space above the conventional level of V1, an abnormal P-tf was seen in 12.2% of normals, and in 32.7, 36.4, and 43.6% of cases with hypertension, COLD, and old myocardial infarction, respectively. It can be concluded therefore that the P-tf is greatly influenced by a slight upward shift of the V1 electrode, and correct placement of the V1 electrode is essential for P-tf assessment.