Breast cancer

Development and validation of nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer specific survival in locally advanced breast cancer patients: A SEER population-based study

Background

For patients with locally advanced breast cancer (LABC), conventional TNM staging is not accurate in predicting survival outcomes. The aim of this study was to develop two accurate survival prediction models to guide clinical decision making.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 22,842 LABC patients was performed from 2010 to 2015 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. An additional cohort of 200 patients from the Binzhou Medical University Hospital (BMUH) was analyzed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen for variables. The identified variables were used to build a survival prediction model. The performance of the nomogram models was assessed based on the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The LASSO analysis identified 9 variables in patients with LABC, including age, marital status, Grade, histological type, T-stage, N-stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. In the training cohort, the C-index of the nomogram in predicting the overall survival (OS) was 0.767 [95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.751-0.775], cancer specific survival (CSS) was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.756-0.774). In the external validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram in predicting the OS was 0.858 (95% CI: 0.812-0.904), the CSS was 0.866 (95% CI: 0.817-0.915). In the training cohort, the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) values of the nomogram in prediction of the 1, 3, and 5-year OS were 0.836 (95% CI: 0.821-0.851), 0.769 (95% CI: 0.759-0.780), and 0.750 (95% CI: 0.738-0.762), respectively. The AUC values for prediction of the 1, 3, and 5-year CSS were 0.829 (95% CI: 0.811-0.847), 0.769 (95% CI: 0.757-0.780), and 0.745 (95% CI: 0.732-0.758), respectively. Results of the C-index, ROC curve, and DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was more accurate in predicting the OS and CSS of patients compared with conventional TNM staging.

Conclusion

Two prediction models were developed and validated in this study which provided more accurate prediction of the OS and CSS in LABC patients than the TNM staging. The constructed models can be used for predicting survival outcomes and guide treatment plans for LABC patients.

Molecular biomarker analyses using circulating tumor cells

Background

Evaluation of cancer biomarkers from blood could significantly enable biomarker assessment by providing a relatively non-invasive source of representative tumor material. Circulating Tumor Cells (CTCs) isolated from blood of metastatic cancer patients hold significant promise in this regard.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using spiked tumor-cells we evaluated CTC capture on different CTC technology platforms, including CellSearch® and two biochip platforms, and used the isolated CTCs to develop and optimize assays for molecular characterization of CTCs. We report similar performance for the various platforms tested in capturing CTCs, and find that capture efficiency is dependent on the level of EpCAM expression. We demonstrate that captured CTCs are amenable to biomarker analyses such as HER2 status, qRT-PCR for breast cancer subtype markers, KRAS mutation detection, and EGFR staining by immunofluorescence (IF). We quantify cell surface expression of EGFR in metastatic lung cancer patient samples. In addition, we determined HER2 status by IF and FISH in CTCs from metastatic breast cancer patients. In the majority of patients (89%) we found concordance with HER2 status from patient tumor tissue, though in a subset of patients (11%), HER2 status in CTCs differed from that observed in the primary tumor. Surprisingly, we found CTC counts to be higher in ER+ patients in comparison to HER2+ and triple negative patients, which could be explained by low EpCAM expression and a more mesenchymal phenotype of tumors belonging to the basal-like molecular subtype of breast cancer.

Conclusions/Significance

Our data suggests that molecular characterization from captured CTCs is possible and can potentially provide real-time information on biomarker status. In this regard, CTCs hold significant promise as a source of tumor material to facilitate clinical biomarker evaluation. However, limitations exist from a purely EpCAM based capture system and addition of antibodies to mesenchymal markers could further improve CTC capture efficiency to enable routine biomarker analysis from CTCs.