Numerical simulations and the problem of periodicity in the cratering record

Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology

A review of the results of published spectral analyses of the ages of terrestrial impact craters (58 analyses) and biotic extinction events (35 analyses) reveals that about 60% of the crater trials support a statistically significant cycle averaging ∼29.7 million years (My), and about 67% of the trials of extinction episodes found a significant cycle averaging ∼26.5 My. Cross-wavelet transform analysis of the records of craters and extinctions over the past 260 My shows a mutual ∼26 My cycle and a common phase, suggesting a connection. About 50% of the best-dated impact craters seem to occur in approximately nine pairs or clusters in the past 260 My, apparently carrying the signal of an ∼26- to 30-My cycle. It has been suggested that periodic modulation of impacts and extinctions might be related to periodic comet storms that follow the solar system's oscillations in and out of the galactic mid-plane. Problems arise, however, with regard to the compatibility of such periodic pulses of comet flux with the makeup of the steady-state Near Earth Object (NEO) population, the estimated long-term NEO cratering rates on the terrestrial planets, and the predicted small contribution of Oort Cloud-derived comets to the terrestrial cratering record. Asteroid storms may be possible, but at present there are no accepted mechanisms for creating an ∼30-My period in asteroid breakup events and impacts. Astrobiological implications arise if extra-solar habitable planets suffer similar cyclical or episodic catastrophic bombardment episodes affecting long-term biotic evolution on those planets. Other planetary systems might commonly have comet reservoirs, but they are less likely to contain an asteroid belt in the proper orbital position. Further, frequent impacts of ∼1-km diameter comets and asteroids could affect the establishment and longevity of technological civilizations, including our own.

Flood basalt volcanism during the past 250 million years

A chronology of the initiation dates of major continental flood basalt volcanism is established from published potassium-argon (K-Ar) and argon-argon (Ar-Ar) ages of basaltic rocks and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales. Estimated errors of the initation dates of the volcanic episodes determined from the distributions of the radiometric ages are, approximately, plus or minus 4 percent. There were 11 distinct episodes during the past 250 million years. Sometimes appearing in pairs, the episodes have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 +/- 1 (estimated, error of the mean) million years. The initiation dates of the episodes are close to the estimated dates of mass extinctions of marine organisms. Showers of impacting comets may be the cause.

A unified theory of impact crises and mass extinctions: quantitative tests

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing, large-scale environmental disasters, predict the impacts of objects > or = 5 km in diameter (> or = 10(7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of > or = 10 km in diameter (> or = 10(8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10(6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities, and several well-dated large impact craters, also suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of approximately 100 km diameter, smaller impacts being capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters less than approximately 60 km in diameter should not be associated with detectable global extinction pulses (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses seem to be associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high iridium, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less well-studied crisis intervals show elevated iridium, but well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of approximately 30 Myr in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the pulselike modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement between paleontologic and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.