Developmental changes in predicting one's own span of short-term memory

Embodying anticipated affect enhances proactive behavior in 5-year-old children

Imagining anticipated affects can foster future-oriented behavior in adults. However, children often still have difficulties in vividly imagining how they will feel in a specific episode (affective episodic future thinking [EFT]). We investigated whether enacting anticipated affects helps children to imagine how they will feel and whether this enhances proactive behavior in turn. A total of 90 5-year-old children were randomly assigned to one of three groups. In the embodiment group, children were instructed to imagine and physically enact how positive and negative they would feel in an upcoming performance test. Children in the EFT-only group underwent a similar procedure but did not enact their future affect. In the control group, children were reminded of the upcoming test only without receiving a prompt to imagine the upcoming test. After the manipulation, children had the opportunity to play one of three games. One game was relevant for the test. Children's choice to play the relevant game in advance of the test served as an indicator for proactive behavior. Mechanisms (e.g., detailedness of the envisioned event) and moderators (theory of mind and neuroticism) of the link between embodied EFT and proactive behavior were explored. Children in the embodiment group chose the relevant game above chance level, but they did not choose the relevant game more often than children in the EFT-only group and the control group. Those results were independent of the assumed mediators and moderators.

Children Use Teachers' Beliefs About Their Abilities to Calibrate Explore-Exploit Decisions

Models of the explore-exploit problem have explained how children's decision making is weighed by a bias for information (directed exploration), randomness, and generalization. These behaviors are often tested in domains where a choice to explore (or exploit) is guaranteed to reveal an outcome. An often overlooked but critical component of the assessment of explore-exploit decisions lies in the expected success of taking actions in the first place-and, crucially, how such decisions might be carried out when learning from others. Here, we examine how children consider an informal teacher's beliefs about the child's competence when deciding how difficult a task they want to pursue. We present a simple model of this problem that predicts that while learners should follow the recommendation of an accurate teacher, they should exploit easier games when a teacher overestimates their abilities, and explore harder games when she underestimates them. We tested these predictions in two experiments with adults (Experiment 1) and 6- to 8-year-old children (Experiment 2). In our task, participants' performance on a picture-matching game was either overestimated, underestimated, or accurately represented by a confederate (the "Teacher"), who then presented three new matching games of varying assessed difficulty (too easy, too hard, just right) at varying potential reward (low, medium, high). In line with our model's predictions, we found that both adults and children calibrated their choices to the teacher's representation of their competence. That is, to maximize expected reward, when she underestimated them, participants chose games the teacher evaluated as being too hard for them; when she overestimated them, they chose games she evaluated as being too easy; and when she was accurate, they chose games she assessed as being just right. This work provides insight into the early-emerging ability to calibrate explore-exploit decisions to others' knowledge when learning in informal pedagogical contexts.

Development of representational theory of mind: Concepts of mental states, awareness of thinking, and self-permanence

In a recent monograph, my students, colleagues, and I reported on a comprehensive set of tests of the theory of Perceptual Access Reasoning (PAR), a new theory of the development of representational theory of mind (ToM). The central tenet of the theory is that young children acquire a hitherto undetected non-representational ToM (i.e., PAR), the use of which allows them to pass standard false belief tasks without understanding false beliefs. Thus, PAR theory capitalizes on an unrecognized flaw in all standard false belief tasks. In what follows, I present an overview of PAR theory, the tests that we have conducted of the theory, and logical arguments for how PAR explains the classic findings in the ToM literature. Next, I evaluate two recent alternate accounts that have been offered by critics, and I discuss some of the issues raised by three invited commentaries on the monograph. Finally, I consider the question, "What is the development of representational ToM the development of?" Insights from philosophy of mind point to the primacy of children's understanding of mental states in themselves, leading to a new concept of self-permanence that can provide the basis for a unified theory of the development of children's understanding of the mental and physical worlds. As a final thought, I consider how PAR was able to hide in plain sight for so long.

Young children's overestimation of performance: A cross-cultural comparison

Western literature suggests that young children overestimate their performance across a range of tasks. Research in non‐Western cultures, however, is lacking. In 2019, 101 Chinese (52% girls) and 98 Dutch (49% girls) children, ages 4 and 5, were asked to estimate how well they would perform on both a motor and a memory task. Children from both countries overestimated their performance to the same extent (ηp2 = .077 and .027 for the motor and memory tasks, respectively). They generally persevered in doing so despite receiving realistic performance feedback. Yet, children overestimated their peers’ performance about as much as their own performance, in some cases even more. This is the first demonstration of performance overestimation in children growing up in a non‐Western culture.

Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition

Child development research on overconfidence suggests that the bias is present and persistent in preschoolers and kindergartners. However, little is known about what drives overconfidence among young decision-makers, how it changes over a large number of repetitions, and whether such changes differ by gender or age. The current experimental study analyzes data from 60 children, aged 4 years 0 months to 6 years 10 months, who played 60 turns of the Children’s Gambling Task and provided regular estimates on their performance. A video intervention, designed to demonstrate the consequences of disadvantageous choices, was tested in a double-blind randomized controlled trial to assess its impact on overconfidence. The results show that every third participant remained overconfident even after 60 trials and constant feedback. Unlike previously reported, gender seems to be a determining factor in this process. Lastly, providing additional information through a video intervention appears to have no impact on participants’ overconfidence levels.

Examining Metamemory within the Context of Parent-Child Interactions

The production of memory-monitoring behaviors was investigated on two occasions, 1 yr. apart, for 9- and 10-yr.-old children and their parents. A structured block-design task was used to elicit verbal and nonverbal problem-solving strategies from children and their parents during dyadic interactions. Based on Vygotsky's zone of proximal development, it was proposed that children acquire more sophisticated cognitive skills through social interaction. Results support this view in that with experience, children and parents used fewer overt memory-monitoring strategies in problem solving.

Through a Looking Glass or a Hall of Mirrors? Self-ratings and Teacher-ratings of Academic Competence over Development

To determine the properties, functions, and developmental validities of self-ratings and teacher-ratings, evaluations of academic competence (i.e. ratings of spelling and math) were obtained in two longitudinal cohorts [i.e. 4th-12th grade ( N = 220) across 9 annual test waves; 7th-12th grade ( N = 475) across 6 annual test waves]. Logistic regressions and path analyses indicated that teacher-ratings consistently yielded more robust predictions of subsequent academic attainment than self-ratings. Moreover, there was an apparent self-enhancement, with mean self-ratings significantly higher than mean teacher-ratings at most age levels. Correlations between teacher-ratings of spelling and math were robust, whereas the correlations between self-ratings in these domains were small and unreliable. These findings—replicated across cohorts, gender, academic domains, and grades—were interpreted in terms of the functions served by self- and teacher-ratings.

What Could You Really Learn on Your Own?: Understanding the Epistemic Limitations of Knowledge Acquisition

Three studies explored the abilities of 205 children (5-11 years) and 74 adults (18-72 years) to distinguish directly versus indirectly acquired information in a scenario where an individual grew up in isolation from human culture. Directly acquired information is knowledge acquired through firsthand experience. Indirectly acquired information is knowledge that requires input from others. All children distinguished directly from indirectly acquired knowledge (Studies 1-3), even when the indirectly acquired knowledge was highly familiar (Study 2). All children also distinguished difficult-to-acquire direct knowledge from simple-to-acquire direct knowledge (Study 3). The major developmental change was the increasing ability to completely rule out indirect knowledge as possible for an isolated individual to acquire.

Positive illusions in adolescents: the relationship between academic self-enhancement and depressive symptomatology

Positive illusions are systematically inflated self-perceptions of competence, and are frequently seen in areas of great difficulty. Although these illusions have been extensively documented in children and adults, their role in typical adolescent emotion regulation is unclear. This study investigated the relationship between positive illusions, depressive symptomatology, and school stress in a sample of 71 school-based adolescents. Findings revealed that adolescents who were achieving slightly below average in math significantly overestimated their performance, but adolescents did not overestimate their performance in spelling. Positive illusions in math were negatively related to depressive symptomatology. Implications for positive illusions theory are discussed.

Metamemory experiments in neurological populations: a review

Metamemory refers to knowledge about one's memory capabilities and strategies that can aid memory, as well as the processes involved in memory self-monitoring. Although metamemory has been studied in cognitive psychology for several decades, there have been fewer studies investigating the neuropsychology of metamemory. In recent years, a growing number of studies of neurological patient groups have been conducted in order to investigate the neural correlates of metamemory. In this review, we examine the neuropsychological evidence that the frontal lobes are critically involved in monitoring and control processes, which are the central components of metamemory. The following conclusions are drawn from this literature: (1) There is a strong correlation between indices of frontal lobe function or structural integrity and metamemory accuracy (2) The combination of frontal lobe dysfunction and poor memory severely impairs metamemorial processes (3) Metamemory tasks vary in subject performance levels, and quite likely, in the underlying processes these different tasks measure, and (4) Metamemory, as measured by experimental tasks, may dissociate from basic memory retrieval processes and from global judgments of memory.

Effects of types of elaboration on children's memories of a story: interaction with academic performance

Two experiments compared the effectiveness of three types of elaboration on incidental and intentional memory for a story: self-generated, self-choice, and experimenter-provided elaboration. In Exp. 1, using the incidental memory paradigm, second graders listened to a fantastic story and then, in the self-generated condition, answered a "why" question about a particular topic in the story. In the self-choice condition, they chose one of the alternative answers to the question and in the experimenter-provided condition, judged the appropriateness of each of two provided answers. This was followed by free-recall and cued-recall tests. Subjects were categorized into two groups, good and poor academic achievers in terms of academic scores in four subject matter areas. For good academic achievers, self-choice elaboration led to a better cued recall than the other two elaboration types. The cued-recall performance of poor achievers was not different with the three conditions. In Exp. 2, using the intentional memory paradigm, the subjects intended to learn a different story and then performed the same procedure as Exp. 1. For poor achievers, self-choice elaboration led to a worse free recall than the other elaboration types, but the free recall of good achievers was not significantly different for the three types of elaboration. The results were interpreted as showing that the effects of self-choice elaboration on incidental and intentional memory were correlated with subjects' academic performance.

Metakognitive Überwachungs- und Selbstkontrollprozesse bei der Lernzeiteinteilung von Kindern

Zusammenfassung: Bisherige entwicklungspsychologische Arbeiten legen nahe, dass es jüngeren Grundschulkindern schwer fällt, ihre Lernzeiten an den Schwierigkeitsgrad des Aufgabenmaterials anzupassen. Die vorliegende Studie versucht zu klären, ob diese Schwierigkeiten eher auf defizitäre Überwachungsprozesse oder auf Probleme in der Selbstregulation zurückzuführen sind. Je 42 Erst- und Drittklässler erhielten die Aufgabe, “leichte” (hoch assoziative) und “schwierige” (nicht miteinander verbundene) Bildpaare zu lernen. Zur Erfassung von Überwachungsprozessen wurden nach einer ersten Lernphase mit fester Lernzeit “Judgment-of-learning” (JOL)-Urteile zum geschätzten Lernaufwand für die einzelnen Bildpaare erfragt. Danach wurden dieselben Bildpaare nochmals vorgegeben, wobei die Kinder nun ihre Lernzeiten frei bestimmen konnten. Es zeigte sich, dass Erst- und Drittklässler gleichermaßen dazu in der Lage waren, in ihren JOLs zwischen leichten und schweren Bildpaaren zu differenzieren. Die Drittklässler richteten ihre Lernzeiten jedoch stärker nach den vorausgegangenen JOL-Urteilen als die Erstklässler.

Determinanten der Leistungsvorhersage bei Kindergarten- und Grundschulkindern: Zur Bedeutung metakognitiver und motivationaler Einflußfaktoren

Zusammenfassung. Obwohl in vielen entwicklungspsychologischen Studien immer wieder klare Überschätzungsneigungen bei Leistungsprognosen jüngerer Kinder gefunden wurden, gibt es keine Einigkeit darüber, worauf die unrealistischen Schätzungen zurückzuführen sind. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde geprüft, ob dafür eher ein metakognitives Defizit in Form unzureichender Gedächtnisüberwachung oder motivationale Faktoren wie etwa ein übersteigertes Wunschdenken bzw. eine Überschätzung der Wirkung von Anstrengung verantwortlich zu machen sind. Jeweils 36 Kindergartenkindern im Alter von vier und sechs Jahren sowie 32 Drittkläßlern wurden jeweils zwei psychomotorische und zwei Gedächtnisaufgaben vorgegeben, für die Leistungsprognosen unter zwei Versuchsbedingungen zu treffen waren. In der Wunschbedingung wurden die Kinder nach ihren Leistungswünschen für den nächsten Durchgang, in der Erwartungsbedingung nach den Leistungserwartungen gefragt. Um das Vorliegen eines metakognitiven Defizits zu untersuchen, wurden die Erinnerung der Kinder an ihre letzte Leistung sowie Sicherheitsurteile erhoben. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, daß die Metakognitionshypothese im Sinne mangelnder Überwachungstätigkeit verworfen werden kann. Demgegenüber fanden sich eine zumindest partielle Stützung der Wunschdenkenshypothese und klare Hinweise für eine enorme Überbewertung der Anstrengung bei den Kindergartenkindern.

Individual differences in metacognition: evidence against a general metacognitive ability

Individual differences in metacognitive accuracy are generally thought to reflect differences in metacognitive ability. If so, memory monitoring performance should be consistent across different meta-cognitive tasks and show high test-retest reliability. Two experiments examined these possibilities, using four common metacognitive tasks: ease of learning judgments, feeling of knowing judgments, judgments of learning, and text comprehension monitoring. Alternate-forms correlations were computed for metacognitive accuracy (with a 1-week interval between tests). Although individual differences in memory and confidence were stable across both sessions and tasks, differences in metacognitive accuracy were not. These results pose considerable practical and theoretical challenges for metacognitive researchers.

Prediction accuracy of text recall: ease, effort and familiarity

Prediction accuracy of text recall was studied in two experiments. Text characteristics (i.e., consistency and distinctiveness) were manipulated in Experiment 1, and familiarity with the reading-task in Experiment 2. The results were also analyzed and discussed in terms of easy processing (Experiment 1), and in terms of increased and more active processing (Experiment 2). Text characteristics did not affect prediction accuracy. However, being familiar with the reading-task led to good and long-lasting prediction accuracy. Thus, subjects reading a school-book text, instructed to learn the contents of it demonstrated reliable memory awareness, both for immediate recall and for delay of one week. It was also suggested that increased processing demands and active reading enhances prediction accuracy.

Can metamemory be localized?

This comment examines current neuropsychological literature in the field of metamemory. One notion emerging from this literature is that metamemory is mediated by the frontal lobes. We argue that this idea is the result of inadequate conceptual approaches to metamemory and that currently there is no evidence to support the cerebral localization of metamemory.

Signal-detection properties of verbal self-reports

The bias (B'H) and discriminability (A') of college students' self-reports about choices made in a delayed identity matching-to-sample task were studied as a function of characteristics of the response about which they reported. Each matching-to-sample trial consisted of two, three, or four simultaneously presented sample stimuli, a 1-s retention interval, and two, three, or four comparison stimuli. One sample stimulus was always reproduced among the comparisons, and choice of the matching comparison in less than 800 ms produced points worth chances in a drawing for money. After each choice, subjects pressed either a "yes" or a "no" button to answer a computer-generated query about whether the choice met the point contingency. The number of sample and comparison stimuli was manipulated across experimental conditions. Rates of successful matching-to-sample choices were negatively correlated with the number of matching-to-sample stimuli, regardless of whether samples or comparisons were manipulated. As in previous studies, subjects exhibited a pronounced bias for reporting successful responses. Self-report bias tended to become less pronounced as matching-to-sample success became less frequent, an outcome consistent with signal-frequency effects in psychophysical research. The bias was also resistant to change, suggesting influences other than signal frequency that remain to be identified. Self-report discriminability tended to decrease with the number of sample stimuli and increase with the number of comparison stimuli, an effect not attributable to differential effects of the two manipulations on matching-to-sample performance. Overall, bias and discriminability indices revealed effects that were not evident in self-report accuracy scores. The results indicate that analyses based on signal-detection theory can improve the description of correspondence between self-reports and their referents and thus contribute to the identification of environmental sources of control over verbal self-reports.

Metamemory in multiple sclerosis

MS patients and age- and education-matched normal controls were administered several laboratory tests of metamemory and a questionnaire designed to measure subjects' capability to appraise their ability to remember events that might occur in everyday life. On laboratory tasks involving newly acquired information, MS patients with poor recognition memory abilities or poor performance on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) exhibited impairments on one test of metamemory; patients with deficits in both recognition and on the WCST showed more extensive impairments in metamemory. In contrast to their performance on tests involving newly acquired information, all groups of MS patients predicted their ability to recognize answers to general information questions that they could not recall as accurately as controls, and, like controls, they also searched their memories longer for answers to items that they believed they would recognize. In general, the results support the hypothesis that both trace-access and inferential mechanisms, which are thought to involve the prefrontal cortex, contribute to metamemory, but the nature of the memory task importantly influences the accuracy of metamemory, as well. Results from the questionnaire indicated that many MS patients with demonstrable memory deficits do not acknowledge their memory difficulties. Hence, patient self-reports about memory are likely to be unreliable sources of information for clinical purposes.

Young children's knowledge of their memory span: effects of task and experience

This study investigated the hypothesis that young children have knowledge about their memory that they may be unable to articulate, but are able to reflect on and use in problem-solving. Forty-eight kindergarteners made one of two types of judgments about their memory span for words. Half of the children made prospective verbal predictions about the number of words they thought they could recall from a list of 10. The other half made concurrent, nonverbal predictions by listening to words on a tape and manually stopping the tape when they heard as many words as they thought they could recall. Children's actual recall for words was then assessed. All children participated in multiple trials to assess the effect of task experience on their predictions. Analyses revealed that predictions made in the concurrent task were significantly more accurate than those made in the prospective task. All children lowered their predictions across trials, although only in the concurrent task were children's final-trial predictions not significantly greater than their actual recall. No meaningful effects or interactions were associated with actual recall scores. These results revealed that young children manifested greater memory knowledge when this knowledge was assessed through their concurrent problem-solving behavior rather than through their prospective verbal predictions.

Metacognitive benefits of taking a test for children and young adolescents

The main purposes of this study were (a) to isolate monitoring of test performance from other forms of monitoring and (b) to determine the effect of taking a test on expectations about future performance. Children in grades 1-2, 4-5, and 7-8 were administered a vocabulary test. They either predicted their performance on tests like the one that was administered before taking the test, predicted after taking the test, or made postdictions about performance on the present test. There was unambiguous improvement in the accuracy of after-test predictions and postdictions compared to before-test predictions at grades 7-8 only. Although all age groups discriminated hard from easy items as they were doing them, such discrimination increased with age. In general, there were few sex differences, although whenever statistically significant sex differences in confidence were detected, boys tended to be more confident than girls. These results are consistent with claims that developmental changes in self-regulation could be tied to developmental changes in monitoring of performance and making predictions about future performance based on past performance.

Early understanding of perception as a source of knowledge

Two studies investigated preschool children's ability to infer another person's knowledge or ignorance on the basis of that person's recent perceptual experience. In Experiment 1 children were questioned about their own and a puppet's knowledge of a hidden object's color and about their own and the puppet's ability to see the hidden object. Three- and 4-year-olds attributed knowledge and perceptual experience to the person (either themselves or the puppet) who had viewed the hidden object, but not to the person who did not view it. Experiment 2 further investigated 3-year-olds understanding of perception as a source of knowledge. Children were asked to indicate which of two puppets, one who had viewed a hidden object and one who had not, would be able to tell them the object's color. Children chose the correct puppet more often than would be predicted by chance. The results of these experiments suggest that understanding of perception as a source of knowledge is present by the age of 3 years.

Metamemory in temporal lobe epilepsy: self-monitoring of memory functions

Temporal lobe seizure patients and control subjects participated in an investigation of metamemory. The two-part study explored the individual's perception of memory abilities for both encoding and retrieval. Experiment I addressed self-monitoring of encoding through a study of prediction of memory span. Experiment II explored self-monitoring of retrieval through a study of "Feeling of Knowing." The results indicate that left and right temporal lobe seizure patients tend to overestimate their memory capacities, in comparison with normal controls, and that self-monitoring tends to be less accurate for material (verbal or nonverbal) mediated by side of lesion. The potential impact of inaccurate memory monitoring on the memory dysfunction observed in seizure patients is discussed.