Ecological modelling of the North Sea

Relating trophic resources to community structure: a predictive index of food availability

The abundance and the distribution of trophic resources available for consumers influence the productivity and the diversity of natural communities. Nevertheless, assessment of the actual abundance of food items available for individual trophic groups has been constrained by differences in methods and metrics used by various authors. Here we develop an index of food abundance, the framework of which can be adapted for different ecosystems. The relative available food index (RAFI) is computed by considering standard resource conditions of a habitat and the influence of various generalized anthropogenic and natural factors. RAFI was developed using published literature on food abundance and validated by comparison of predictions versus observed trophic resources across various marine sites. RAFI tables here proposed can be applied to a range of marine ecosystems for predictions of the potential abundance of food available for each trophic group, hence permitting exploration of ecological theories by focusing on the deviation from the observed to the expected.

[Seasonal evolution of the biogeochemical cycle in the southwest lagoon of New Caledonia. Application of a compartmental model]

A biogeochemical box model describing the south-west lagoon of New-Caledonia was developed in order to simulate the seasonal cycle of carbon and nitrogen. We used fluxes generated by a 3D hydrodynamic model to simulate horizontal exchanges between boxes and added freshwater influxes as nitrogen sources from the land. Average residence time proved to be less than 11 days for the lagoon as a whole. Standard simulations showed baseline values of chlorophyll a between 0.2 and 0.4 microgram.L-1. Influences of freshwater influxes proved to be significant (increases up to 1 microgram.L-1) only in shallow areas protected from wind exposure and during short periods of heavy rainfall (tropical depressions). Tropical climatic events have reduced impact in space and time and long-term simulations over decades with increased nutrient inputs did not show any significant process of eutrophication. Hydrodynamics seemed to be one of the major control factors with respect to organic matter cycling in the lagoon.

Towards water quality models

Predictions of water quality involve the modelling both of physical processes, which underlie the transport and diffusion of all constituents, and of the sources, sinks, partitioning and interactive processes individual to those constituents. These processes are outlined, together with complementary modelling approaches: (i) development of sophisticated three-dimensional models to represent the physics, and sub-models of suspended sediment, microbiology and metal interactions for processes controlling nutrients, dissolved oxygen, phytoplankton, detritus and metals; (ii) a framework to link these component models; (iii) an accessible model with simpler physics for wide use in simulating constituent distributions, for comparison with measurements to infer sources, sinks and interactions. The North Sea Project measurements provide an input in process evaluation, and data to test the models.