Prognostic index in prediction of mortality from infective endocarditis

Predictors of long-term mortality in left-sided infective endocarditis: an historical cohort study in 414 patients

INTRODUCTION

Very limited data are available on the long-term outcome of infective endocarditis (IE) and its determinants. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of long-term mortality in patients affected by left sided IE (LSIE).

METHODS

This was an historical retrospective observational study on prospectively collected data from patients with LSIE hospitalized in our Unit (January 2000-December 2017). Multiple variables relevant to history, physical examination, laboratory tests, echocardiography, comorbidities, complications and outcome were analysed by Cox regression to identify predictors of long-term mortality.

RESULTS

414 patients were included, and followed up for a median of 39 months [IQR 11-74]. Median age was 59 years [range 3-89], and most patients were male. Over 50% showed at least one comorbidity. Hyperglycaemia, increased creatinine and an indication for surgery predicted in-hospital mortality, while a prior myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease (CKD) on hemodialysis and a larger vegetation were independent predictors of 1-year mortality. At multivariate analysis, peripheral arterial disease (p= 0.017), hyperglycemia on admission (p=0.013) and a higher BMI (p=0.009) were independent predictors of long-term mortality in 1-year survivors. At multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, peripheral arterial disease (p=0.002), hyperglycemia (p=0.041) and CKD on hemodialysis (p=0.025) confirmed to be independently associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality in the overall 414 patient cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular and metabolic risk signals, specifically peripheral arterial disease and hyperglicemia, affect long-term mortality of LSIE. An active and long-term follow up seems warranted in IE survivors showing these conditions at outset.

Contemporary epidemiology and prognosis of septic shock in infective endocarditis

AIMS

The prognosis of patients with infective endocarditis (IE) remains poor despite the great advances in the last decades. One of the factors closely related to mortality is the development of septic shock (SS). The aim of our study was to describe the profile of patients with IE complicated with SS, and to identify prognostic factors of new-onset SS during hospitalization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a prospective study including 894 episodes of IE diagnosed at three tertiary centres. A backward logistic regression analysis was undertaken to determine prognostic factors associated with SS development. Multivariable analysis identified the following as predictive of SS development: diabetes mellitus [odds ratio (OR) 2.06; confidence interval (CI) 1.16-3.68], Staphylococcus aureus infection (OR: 2.97; CI: 1.72-5.15), acute renal insufficiency (OR: 3.22; CI: 1.28-8.07), supraventricular tachycardia (OR: 3.29; CI: 1.14-9.44), vegetation size ≥15 mm (OR: 1.21; CI: 0.65-2.25), and signs of persistent infection (OR: 9.8; CI: 5.48-17.52). Risk of SS development could be stratified when combining the first five variables: one variable present: 3.8% (CI: 2-7%); two variables present: 6.3% (CI: 3.2-12.1%); three variables present: 14.6% (CI: 6.8-27.6%); four variables present: 29.1% (CI: 11.7-56.1%); and five variables present: 45.4% (95% CI: 17.5-76.6%). When adding signs of persistent infection, the risk dramatically increased, reaching 85.7% (95% CI: 61.2-95.9%) of risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with IE, the presence of diabetes, acute renal insufficiency, Staphylococcus aureus infection, supraventricular tachycardia, vegetation size ≥15 mm, and signs of persistent infection are associated with the development of SS.

In-hospital prognosis of prosthetic valve endocarditis after urgent surgery

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Prosthetic valve endocarditis is associated with high morbidity and mortality, particularly when urgent surgery is needed. The identification of factors that predict a poor prognosis is the first step in improving outcomes. The study objectives were to characterize patients with prosthetic valve endocarditis who need urgent surgery and to identify factors that predict in-hospital mortality in this high-risk group.

METHODS

From a database of 648 consecutive patients with infective endocarditis diagnosed between 1996 and 2006 at four tertiary-care centers with cardiac surgery facilities, 46 patients with left-sided prosthetic valve endocarditis who needed urgent surgery were identified. A retrospective study was carried out to determine these patients' main characteristics and to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The main indications for urgent surgery were heart failure (57%) and persistent infection (33%). In-hospital mortality was 41%. Factors significantly associated with a poor prognosis were fever at admission, persistent infection, positive blood cultures, persistently positive cultures, and echocardiographic evidence of vegetations (P< .05). No specific microorganism was associated with a poor prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Prosthetic valve endocarditis was associated with high mortality when urgent surgery was needed. Although heart failure was the principle reason for urgent surgery, it did not lead to a worse in-hospital prognosis. The presence of vegetations and uncontrolled infection were the main factors associated with higher in-hospital mortality in patients with left-sided infective endocarditis who needed urgent surgery.

Relative value of clinical and transesophageal echocardiographic variables for risk stratification in patients with infective endocarditis

BACKGROUND

Infective endocarditis remains a life-threatening disease, and its optimal management is of paramount importance. Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is useful for the diagnosis of endocarditis-induced lesions, but the prognostic significance of the method remains controversial.

HYPOTHESIS

The purpose of this study was to relate clinical and TEE characteristics to the occurrence of mortality and/or systemic embolization in a consecutive series of 45 patients with a diagnosis of infective endocarditis.

METHODS

All patients underwent at least one monoplane TEE. Clinical data, episodes of embolization, and echocardiographic characteristics were prospectively recorded. Stepwise logistic discriminant analysis was performed to identify the independent variables that best predicted three binary outcomes: systemic embolization, death, and systemic embolization and/or death.

RESULTS

Twelve of the 45 patients (27%) died from the endocarditis. Significant univariate predictors of death were the presence of paravalvular abscess (p = 0.025), number of vegetations (p = 0.021), Staphylococcus aureus isolated in blood cultures (p = 0.002), medical treatment alone (p < 0.002), and systemic embolism (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, systemic embolism (chi 2 = 29.3; p < 0.01), echocardiographic evidence of paravalvular abscess (chi 2 = 5.6; p = 0.018), Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis (chi 2 = 5.5; p = 0.016), and medical treatment alone (chi 2 = 5.11; p = 0.024) emerged as optimal predictors of death. Systemic embolization occurred in 12 patients. Independent variables predicting systemic embolization were a total length of vegetations > 14 mm (p = 0.01), greater age (p = 0.02), and medical treatment alone (p = 0.03). When two or more vegetations were observed, the total length is the sum of the individual sizes. Independent risk factors for the development of systemic emboli and/or death as a combined end point were total length of vegetations on TEE (chi 2 = 6.4; p = 0.003) and medical treatment alone (chi 2 = 4.1; p = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk patients may be identified by the combination of clinical variables and TEE characteristics.

In-hospital mortality of infective endocarditis: prognostic factors and evolution over an 8-year period

Infective endocarditis (IE) remains severe. Few predictors of prognosis have been identified. It is not known whether mortality of IE has decreased during recent decades. 559 definite cases of IE were collected in a prospective population-based survey in 1999 in France. In-hospital death rate was 17%. It was lower in operated patients (14.4% vs 19.3%), although not significantly so. In multivariate analysis, the following variables were independent and significant predictors of mortality: history of heart failure (odds ratio: 2.65), history of immunosuppression (OR: 3.34), insulin-requiring diabetes mellitus (OR: 7.82), left-sided IE (OR: 1.97), heart failure (OR: 2.19), septic shock (OR: 4.33), lower Glasgow coma scale score (OR: 4.09), cerebral haemorrhage (OR: 9.46), and higher C-reactive protein level (OR: 2.60). Adjusted mortality was significantly lower in 1999 than in 1991 (22%): OR: 0.64 (p = 0.03). Thus, in a large and unselected cohort of patients hospitalized for IE in 1999, in-hospital mortality rate was lower than in 1991. Multivariate analysis identified factors classically known as having an impact on mortality. However, other factors, such as age and responsibility of Staphylococcus aureus, were not retained in the model.

Clinical features and predictors for mortality in patients with infective endocarditis at a university hospital in Taiwan from 1995 to 2003

The clinical features and microbiological characteristics of 315 patients with definite or possible infective endocarditis (IE) from January 1995 to December 2003 were evaluated. There were 187 males and 128 females with a mean age of 51 years (range, 1 month to 92 years). Ninety-three patients (30%) had a diagnosis of valvular heart disease and 24 (8%) had received prosthetic valve replacement. Blood culture was negative in 62 patients (20%). Staphylococci (91 patients, 32%), including methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (15%), methicillin-resistant S. aureus (11%), and coagulase-negative staphylococci (6%), were the most commonly encountered pathogens followed by viridans group streptococci (77 patients, 24%). Eight patients (25%) had various neurological, renal, embolic, and cardiac complications. Patients with neurological complications [odds ratio (OR) 8.175, P<0.001], nosocomial IE (OR 6.661, P<0.001), underlying malignancy (OR 4.993, P<0.001), elevated serum creatinine level (OR 3.132, P=0.001), or elevated WBC count (>15000/mm3) (OR 2.537, P=0.007) were at significantly increased risk of mortality. This study found mortality from IE was associated with several factors, among which neurological complications were the most hazardous. Patients with more than one risk factor had poorer prognosis. These results suggest the need for more aggressive management in patients with IE when multiple risk factors for mortality are identified.

Infective endocarditis: clinical spectrum, presentation and outcome. An analysis of 212 cases 1980-1995

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate recent changes in the spectrum and clinical presentation of infective endocarditis and to determine predictors of outcome.

DESIGN

A retrospective case study.

METHODS

Demographic, clinical, and echocardiographic characteristics were examined in 212 patients who fulfilled the Duke criteria for infective endocarditis between January 1980 and December 1995 to assess changes in clinical presentation and survival.

RESULTS

Clinical presentation and course did not change significantly during the study period despite the concurrent introduction of new diagnostic tools (for example, transoesophageal echocardiography). In-hospital mortality was 15% and remained unchanged. Neurological symptoms on admission, arthralgia, and weight loss were all independent risk factors for adverse outcome (odds ratios 26.1, 6.2, and 4.2, respectively). Age, prosthetic valve disease, previous antibiotic treatment, renal insufficiency, surgical treatment, and the type of valve involved were not predictive of mortality. In contrast to all other major reports, Streptococcus viridans was the most common causative organism in intravenous drug users (52%).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the introduction of new diagnostic tools, the course of infective endocarditis has remained unchanged over a period of 16 years. Evidence of early dissemination of the disease to other sites was associated with adverse outcome. Even in elderly patients, early aggressive treatment seems to be effective.

Infective endocarditis in renal transplant recipients

Because of the increasing number of renal transplantations performed and the rarity of reported cases of infective endocarditis in these patients, we studied the clinical characteristics of this infection in this population. We report on two cases from our experience and review reported cases of infective endocarditis in renal transplant recipients retrieved from the MEDLINE system. In addition, we reviewed a large series of infective endocarditis looking for patients with renal transplants. In addition to our 2 cases, 12 previously reported cases were found. The mean time from transplantation to diagnosis of infective endocarditis was 3.5 years (range 2 months to 15 years). Causative organisms included fungi, Staphylococcus aureus (3 cases each), Corynebacterium sp. (2 cases), Streptococcus viridans, VRE, Brucella sp., Clostridium sp., Nocardia sp. and Erysipelothrix sp. (one case each). Skin manifestations of endocarditis and/or splenomegaly were not reported in these patients. Septic emboli and mycotic aneurysms were relatively common. The overall mortality rate was 50% (7 of 14 patients died). Infective endocarditis seems to be rare in renal transplant recipients. The few reported cases are characterized by unusual causative micro-organisms and atypical clinical presentation. Further studies are needed to delineate the magnitude and scope of this association.

Is cerebral angiography indicated in infective endocarditis?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Patients with infective endocarditis may develop intracranial mycotic aneurysms. Whether these patients should undergo cerebral angiography followed by prophylactic surgery if an aneurysm is detected is an unresolved question.

METHODS

We estimated the probability of survival 12 weeks after the diagnosis of infective endocarditis on the basis of data available in the literature.

RESULTS

For a 40-year-old female patient with right-sided hemiplegia, the 12-week survival is estimated to be 83.75% without angiography and 83.65% with angiography; the specific mortality of intracranial mycotic aneurysms is relatively small but increases by 40% (from 0.25% to 0.35%) if angiography is performed. The risk of aneurysm rupture in infective endocarditis and the mortality from rupture appear to be the most important factors that affect the analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Cerebral angiography should not be performed routinely in patients with infective endocarditis. Specific subgroups in whom such a policy might be beneficial have not yet been identified.

Infective Endocarditis in a District General Hospital

Thirty-three cases of infective endocarditis presenting during a 6.5 year period to a district general hospital were analysed retrospectively. The annual incidence was 22 cases per million population. Twenty-two cases had pre-existing cardiac disease, mainly valvular disease — Usually rheumatic (nine cases) and prosthetic valves (10 cases). Recognizable precipitants such as recent surgery were uncommon. Two cases presented after deliberate drug overdose possibly due to depression exacerbated by systemic disease. Symptoms were usually non-specific. All but two cases had murmurs and most were pyrexial. Splinter haemorrhages and clubbing were seen in about 20% of cases. Viridans-type streptococci were the commonest infecting organisms (14 cases). Staphylococcal infection (six cases) was confined to intravenous drug abusers and patients with prosthetic valves. Five cases were culture negative. Cerdiac failure was present in 13 cases at presentation and developed in seven others during treatient. Acute valve replacement was necessary in eight cases, and late replacement in three. Renal impairment (plasma urea > 8 mmol/l and/or plasma creatinine > 120 μmol/l) occurred in 19 cases during the course of their illness. Embolic phenomena occurred in 12 patients and mostly involved the central nervous system. In the 8 fatal cases, the cause of death was cardiac failure in six, cerebrovascular accident in one, and myocardial infarction in one. Four of the six patients who subsequently died of cardiac failure had been referred for surgery. Both those who were not referred had coexisting medical problems. Factors associated with increased mortality were age, male sex, cardiac failure (P<0.01), renal impairment (P<0.05), and embolic phenomena (P< 0.01). These outcome figures are similar to those reported from regional centres, and support the management of infective endocarditis in district general hospitals, particularly those with adequate access to echocardiography, with transfer for surgery when necessary.

Endocarditis due to Streptococcus agalactiae: a favorable outcome with conservative treatment

A case of infective endocarditis due to Streptococcus agalactiae was treated conservatively by means of cefotaxime sodium given intravenously at a dose of 1 g every six hours supplemented with gentamycin sulphate, also given intravenously, with the dose adjusted according to concentrations of the drug in the plasma. The treatment was successful.