Prognostic value of hemostatic parameters after liver transplantation

Association of Plasma Fibrinogen Levels on Postoperative Day 1 with 2-Year Survival of Orthotopic Liver Transplantation for HBV-Related HCC

OBJECTIVE

To clarify the prognostic values of hemostatic parameters to predict the survival of patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The data of 182 consecutive adult patients who underwent OLT for HBV-related HCC were subjected to univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Ascites and fibrinogen levels on postoperative day (POD) 1 were independent predictors of postoperative 2-year mortality (both P <.05). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the higher the fibrinogen level on POD 1, the better the 1- and 2-year survival of patients with ascites (P <.05), whereas the fibrinogen level on POD 1 was associated with 1-year (P <.05) but not 2-year survival of patients without ascites.

CONCLUSION

Fibrinogen on POD 1 is a predictor of 2-year post-OLT survival of patients with HBV-related HCC with ascites.

Early detection of the graft failure after pediatric liver transplantation: a Bergamo experience

BACKGROUND

Effective indicators of the early graft failure after pediatric liver transplantation are currently a crucial question. The aim of this study was to analyze retrospectively laboratory parameters that may help anticipate an early graft loss (GL).

METHODS

The 131 pediatric liver transplantations, performed in our hospital from January 2002 to December 2005, were reviewed. Post-operative laboratory parameters, collected in the first 36 h of the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) stay, were analyzed for children with both graft survival and GL. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was used to identify the optimal cut-off for the laboratory parameters. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the adjusted risk of GL for the prognostic parameters identified.

RESULTS

The mean age at transplant was 1.1 years. The two groups were comparable for all recipient and donor variables considered. Children with GL showed significantly higher levels of ammonia and transaminase at the admission to the PICU and higher levels of prothrombin time, creatinine, lactate and a lower level of platelets at the 36 h of PICU. The laboratory parameters over the cut-off value by the multivariate logistic regression identified all early thromboses earlier than Doppler ultrasound.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that routine blood tests may help to anticipate an early loss of liver grafts in children after transplantation and may improve our diagnostic investigation in the case of thrombosis suspicion. Further validation by a prospective study is needed to carefully assess the sensitivity and specificity of the identified criteria.

Serum cholestasis markers as predictors of early outcome after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Early cholestasis is not uncommon after liver transplantation and usually signifies graft dysfunction. The aim of this study was to determine if serum synthetic and cholestatic parameters measured at various time points after transplantation can predict early patient outcome, and graft function.

METHODS

The charts of 92 patients who underwent 95 liver transplantations at Rabin Medical Center between 1991 and 2000 were reviewed. Findings on liver function tests and levels of serum bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) on days 2, 10, 30, and 90 after transplantation were measured in order to predict early (6 months) patient outcome (mortality and sepsis) and initial poor functioning graft. Pearson correlation, chi(2) test, and Student's t-test were performed for univariate analysis, and logistic regression for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis. Serum bilirubin >/=10 mg/dL and international normalized ratio (INR) >1.6 on days 10, 30, and 90, and high serum ALP and low albumin levels on days 30 and 90 were risk factors for 6-month mortality; serum bilirubin >/=10 mg/dL on days 10, 30, and 90, high serum ALP, high GGT, and low serum albumin, on days 30 and 90, and INR >/=1.6 on day 10 were risk factors for sepsis; high serum alanine aminotransferase, INR >1.6, and bilirubin >/=10 mg/dL on days 2 and 10 were risk factors for poor graft function. The 6-month mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with serum bilirubin >/=10 mg/dL on day 10 than in patients with values of <10 mg/dL (29.4% vs. 4.0%, p = 0.004). Patients who had sepsis had high mean serum ALP levels on day 30 than patients who did not (364.5 +/- 229.9 U/L vs. 70.8 +/- 125.6 U/L, p = 0.005). Multivariate analysis. Significant predictors of 6-month mortality were serum bilirubin >/=10 mg/dL [odds ratio (OR) 9.05, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.6-49.6] and INR >1.6 (OR 9.11, CI 1.5-54.8) on day 10; significant predictors were high serum ALP level on day 30 (OR 1.005, 1.001-1.01) and high GGT level on day 90 (OR 1.005, CI 1.001-1.01). None of the variables were able to predict initial poor graft functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Several serum cholestasis markers may serve as predictors of early outcome of liver transplantation. The strongest correlation was found between serum bilirubin >/=10 mg/dL on day 10 and early death, sepsis, and poor graft function. Early intervention in patients found to be at high risk may ameliorate the high morbidity and mortality associated with early cholestasis.

Prognostic value of the activated partial thromboplastin time after orthotopic liver transplantation. A prospective study

In this prospective study, we evaluated the predictive value of activated partial thromboplastin time on day 8 post transplantation for event-free survival in patients who had had orthotopic liver transplants; both death and retransplantation within 6 months were the events considered. In a 4-year period, 109 patients had orthotopic liver transplants in our hospital, and 104 were eligible for the study since they survived and were not given new transplants within 8 days. The activated partial thromboplastin time was significantly longer in patients who survived event-free for less than 6 months than in those with longer event-free survivals. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients with normal activated partial thromboplastin times were nine times more likely to survive more than 6 months without events than patients with prolonged values. The positive predictive value of activated partial thromboplastin time for event-free survival was 88% and the negative predictive value was 54%, indicating that the test is useful for predicting patient outcome. We suggest that activated partial thromboplastin time be performed on day 8 post transplantation to predict the medium-term event-free survival.

Early death or retransplantation in adults after orthotopic liver transplantation. Can outcome be predicted?

Early, reliable outcome prediction after a liver transplant would help improve organ use by minimizing unnecessary retransplantations. At the same time, early intervention in those cases destined to fail may ameliorate the high morbidity and mortality associated with retransplantation. The purpose of this study was to analyze several parameters that have been identified in the past as being associated with patient and graft outcome, and to try to develop a model that would allow us to make predictions based on data available in the early postoperative period. A total of 148 patients were followed in a prospective, observational study. Graft failure was defined as patient death or retransplantation within 3 months of surgery. Preoperative variables studied included patient demographics, need for life support, presence of ascites, serum bilirubin, serum albumin, prothrombin time, serum creatinine, and the results of the cytotoxic crossmatch. During the first 5 postoperative days, standard measurements included serum transaminases, serum bilirubin, ketone body ratio, prothrombin time, factor V, and serum lactate. Oxygen consumption was measured shortly after surgery, once the patients had rewarmed to 36 degrees C. There were 131 successful transplants (88.5%) and 17 failures (11.5%). Most of the variables studied were found to be associated with outcome (by univariate analysis) at different points in the early postoperative period. However, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the predictive ability of even the best parameter was not adequate to make decisions on individual patients. Multivariate analysis, using stepwise logistic regression, yielded a model with an overall accuracy of 92.7%. Again, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggested that this model did not achieve the discriminating power needed for routine clinical use. We are still not able to accurately predict outcome in the early posttransplant period. We must be very careful when evaluating parameters, or scoring systems, that are said to accomplish this. It is especially important in this era of cost containment, with its renewed pressures to guide therapy based on our perceived understanding of a patient's future clinical course.