Prediction of hospital discharge in immediate survivors of ventricular fibrillation or asystole

Clinical Predictive Models of Sudden Cardiac Arrest: A Survey of the Current Science and Analysis of Model Performances

Background

More than 500 000 sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur annually in the United States. Clinical predictive models (CPMs) may be helpful tools to differentiate between patients who are likely to survive or have good neurologic recovery and those who are not. However, which CPMs are most reliable for discriminating between outcomes in SCA is not known.

Methods and Results

We performed a systematic review of the literature using the Tufts PACE (Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness) CPM Registry through February 1, 2020, and identified 81 unique CPMs of SCA and 62 subsequent external validation studies. Initial cardiac rhythm, age, and duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation were the 3 most commonly used predictive variables. Only 33 of the 81 novel SCA CPMs (41%) were validated at least once. Of 81 novel SCA CPMs, 56 (69%) and 61 of 62 validation studies (98%) reported discrimination, with median c‐statistics of 0.84 and 0.81, respectively. Calibration was reported in only 29 of 62 validation studies (41.9%). For those novel models that both reported discrimination and were validated (26 models), the median percentage change in discrimination was −1.6%. We identified 3 CPMs that had undergone at least 3 external validation studies: the out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest score (9 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.79), the cardiac arrest hospital prognosis score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.83), and the good outcome following attempted resuscitation score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.76).

Conclusions

Although only a small number of SCA CPMs have been rigorously validated, the ones that have been demonstrate good discrimination.

Rhythm changes during resuscitation from ventricular fibrillation

Defibrillation of patients with primary ventricular fibrillation (VF) results in a variety of rhythm changes. We analysed these changes in rhythm in 200 patients, using the American Heart Association's recommendation of two defibrillations prior to drug therapy. Sixty-three (31.5%) patients were immediate survivors with 38 (19%) being discharged from hospital alive. There was no difference between the age of immediate survivors (66.5 years, S.D. = 11.2) and non-survivors (68.3 years, S.D. = 13.7, P = 0.37). Immediate survivors were significantly more likely to be discharged alive from hospital if they were younger (70.0 years, S.D. 8.5 vs. 62.1 years, S.D. 15.8, P = 0.014). Increasing delays to the initiation of basic life support (CPR) and to defibrillation were associated with significantly less likelihood of cardioversion to sinus rhythm (P < 0.005 and P < 0.002, respectively). Those patients who stayed in VF were not more likely to be defibrillated into asystole or electro-mechanical dissociation. Seventeen percent (34) of patients were defibrillated to sinus rhythm after the first defibrillation and 14% (19) after the second, with similar hospital discharge rates (62% and 58%, respectively). Sixty percent (32) of patients in sinus rhythm, after two defibrillations, were discharged alive, compared to only 4% (6) of those patients not in sinus rhythm after two defibrillations. Our data provide new information on rhythm changes during resuscitation and supports the need for the earliest possible initiation of basic life support and defibrillation to improve survival from cardiac arrest due to ventricular fibrillation.