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Liew Z, Olsen J, Cui X, Ritz B, Arah OA. Bias from conditioning on live birth in pregnancy cohorts: an illustration based on neurodevelopment in children after prenatal exposure to organic pollutants. Int J Epidemiol 2015; 44:345-54. [PMID: 25604449 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyu249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 152] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Only 60-70% of fertilized eggs may result in a live birth, and very early fetal loss mainly goes unnoticed. Outcomes that can only be ascertained in live-born children will be missing for those who do not survive till birth. In this article, we illustrate a common bias structure (leading to 'live-birth bias') that arises from studying the effects of prenatal exposure to environmental factors on long-term health outcomes among live births only in pregnancy cohorts. To illustrate this we used prenatal exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in school-aged children as an example. PFAS are persistent organic pollutants that may impact human fecundity and be toxic for neurodevelopment. We simulated several hypothetical scenarios based on characteristics from the Danish National Birth Cohort and found that a weak inverse association may appear even if PFAS do not cause ADHD but have a considerable effect on fetal survival. The magnitude of the negative bias was generally small, and adjusting for common causes of the outcome and fetal loss can reduce the bias. Our example highlights the need to identify the determinants of pregnancy loss and the importance of quantifying bias arising from conditioning on live birth in observational studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeyan Liew
- Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Jørn Olsen
- Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Xin Cui
- Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Beate Ritz
- Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Onyebuchi A Arah
- Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, Department of Neurology, Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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Vialard F, El Sirkasi M, Tronchon V, Boudjenah R, Molina-Gomes D, Bergere M, Mauduit C, Wainer R, Selva J, Benahmed M. Tumor necrosis factor-308 polymorphism increases the embryo implantation rate in women undergoing in vitro fertilization. Hum Reprod 2013; 28:2774-83. [PMID: 23906902 DOI: 10.1093/humrep/det264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
STUDY QUESTION Do TNF-308 and -238 polymorphisms impact the embryo implantation rate after in vitro fertilization (IVF) in women without female infertility factor? SUMMARY ANSWER The presence of the TNF-308A allele is associated with high implantation and multiple pregnancy rates in women without known infertility factors after ovarian hyperstimulation with exogenous FSH. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN Multiple pregnancies are frequent after the use of Assisted Reproductive Technologies. Single embryo transfer (SET) has been proposed as a simple way to prevent these risks. However, the extension of SET indications to patients not selected based on specific criteria is controversial because of reduced pregnancy rates. To date, the predictive value of the parameters used for SET (age, gynecological history of the patient and uterine characteristics) allows a pregnancy rate of ~30%. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION The potential predictive value of TNF polymorphisms (-308, rs1800629 and -238, rs361525) on implantation rate was evaluated in 424 women requiring IVF due to male fertility factors. This cohort retrospective study was conducted over 4 years in University-affiliated hospitals. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING, METHODS The entire patient group included 424 women undergoing intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) due to male fertility factors without the contribution of any female factor. From among this group, a selected patient group included 120 women with a normal karyotype, age under 38 years, serum follicle-stimulating hormone (Day-3 FSH) levels below 10 IU/l, a long agonist desensitization protocol associated with recombinant FSH treatment and a Caucasian background. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The TNF-238 polymorphism was not associated with implantation rate. In contrast, the presence of the TNF-308A allele was associated with increased Day 3-E2 levels as well as higher implantation and multiple pregnancy rates after fresh embryo transfer in women from the entire and selected patient groups. Moreover, in the selected patient group, the presence of the TNF-308A allele was also associated with a decrease in the miscarriage rate. The benefit of the TNF-308A allele in predicting implantation rates was not observed after the use of frozen embryos. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Future studies are needed to evaluate whether the TNF-308A allele might also be a biomarker in women with infertility factors. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDING The TNF-308A allele may represent a good candidate for a potential predictive, non-invasive biomarker in the SET strategy. However, its impact should be evaluated in prospective studies. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST This study was conducted with financial support from the French Institute for Health and Medical Research (INSERM), Organon France for a FARO (Fond d'Aide à la Recherche Organon) fellowship (to V.T.) and CHU Nice PHRC (PHRC 09-279).There are no competing interests.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Vialard
- Inserm, U1065, Centre Méditerranéen de Médecine Moléculaire (C3M), Team 5, Nice, F-06204, France
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