Brown SM, Benneyan JC, Theobald DA, Sands K, Hahn MT, Potter-Bynoe GA, Stelling JM, O'Brien TF, Goldmann DA. Binary cumulative sums and moving averages in nosocomial infection cluster detection.
Emerg Infect Dis 2002;
8:1426-32. [PMID:
12498659 PMCID:
PMC2737829 DOI:
10.3201/eid0812.010514]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Clusters of nosocomial infection often occur undetected, at substantial cost to the medical system and individual patients. We evaluated binary cumulative sum (CUSUM) and moving average (MA) control charts for automated detection of nosocomial clusters. We selected two outbreaks with genotyped strains and used resistance as inputs to the control charts. We identified design parameters for the CUSUM and MA (window size, k, alpha, Beta, p(0), p(1)) that detected both outbreaks, then calculated an associated positive predictive value (PPV) and time until detection (TUD) for sensitive charts. For CUSUM, optimal performance (high PPV, low TUD, fully sensitive) was for 0.1 < or = alpha < or = 0.25 and 0.2 < or = Beta < or = 0.25, with p(0) = 0.05, with a mean TUD of 20 (range 8-43) isolates. Mean PPV was 96.5% (relaxed criteria) to 82.6% (strict criteria). MAs had a mean PPV of 88.5% (relaxed criteria) to 46.1% (strict criteria). CUSUM and MA may be useful techniques for automated surveillance of resistant infections.
Collapse