Bayesian Learning: Inference and the EM Algorithm

Efficient use of binned data for imputing univariate time series data

Time series data are recorded in various sectors, resulting in a large amount of data. However, the continuity of these data is often interrupted, resulting in periods of missing data. Several algorithms are used to impute the missing data, and the performance of these methods is widely varied. Apart from the choice of algorithm, the effective imputation depends on the nature of missing and available data. We conducted extensive studies using different types of time series data, specifically heart rate data and power consumption data. We generated the missing data for different time spans and imputed using different algorithms with binned data of different sizes. The performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) metric. We observed a reduction in RMSE when using binned data compared to the entire dataset, particularly in the case of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We found that RMSE was reduced when using binned data for 1-, 5-, and 15-min missing data, with greater reduction observed for 15-min missing data. We also observed the effect of data fluctuation. We conclude that the usefulness of binned data depends precisely on the span of missing data, sampling frequency of the data, and fluctuation within data. Depending on the inherent characteristics, quality, and quantity of the missing and available data, binned data can impute a wide variety of data, including biological heart rate data derived from the Internet of Things (IoT) device smartwatch and non-biological data such as household power consumption data.

Binned Data Provide Better Imputation of Missing Time Series Data from Wearables

The presence of missing values in a time-series dataset is a very common and well-known problem. Various statistical and machine learning methods have been developed to overcome this problem, with the aim of filling in the missing values in the data. However, the performances of these methods vary widely, showing a high dependence on the type of data and correlations within the data. In our study, we performed some of the well-known imputation methods, such as expectation maximization, k-nearest neighbor, iterative imputer, random forest, and simple imputer, to impute missing data obtained from smart, wearable health trackers. In this manuscript, we proposed the use of data binning for imputation. We showed that the use of data binned around the missing time interval provides a better imputation than the use of a whole dataset. Imputation was performed for 15 min and 1 h of continuous missing data. We used a dataset with different bin sizes, such as 15 min, 30 min, 45 min, and 1 h, and we carried out evaluations using root mean square error (RMSE) values. We observed that the expectation maximization algorithm worked best for the use of binned data. This was followed by the simple imputer, iterative imputer, and k-nearest neighbor, whereas the random forest method had no effect on data binning during imputation. Moreover, the smallest bin sizes of 15 min and 1 h were observed to provide the lowest RMSE values for the majority of the time frames during the imputation of 15 min and 1 h of missing data, respectively. Although applicable to digital health data, we think that this method will also find applicability in other domains.