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Zhang G, Xuan Q, Cai Y, Hu X, Yin Y, Li Y. Analyzing the factors influencing speeding behavior based on quasi-induced exposure and random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2024; 89:262-268. [PMID: 38858050 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2024.04.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Revised: 07/25/2023] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 06/12/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Speeding behavior is a major threat to road traffic safety, which can increase crash risks and result in severe injury outcomes. Although several studies have been conducted to analyze speeding crashes and relevant influential factors, the heterogeneity of variables has not been fully explored. Based on the traffic crash data extracted from the Crash Report Sampling System, the study aims to identify the factors that influence speeding driving with the consideration of variable heterogeneity. METHOD Quasi-induced exposure technique is adopted to identify the disparities in the propensities of speeding for various driving cohorts. The random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means is employed to examine the factors impacting speeding behavior. RESULTS Results indicate that: (a) driving cohorts such as young drivers, male drivers, passenger cars, and pickups appear to have higher propensities of engaging in speeding driving; (b) the propensity of speeding is higher when the driver is drinking, distracted, changing lanes, negotiating a curve, driving in lighted condition, and on curved roads; and (c) the random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means has better performance as opposed to that without heterogeneity in means. CONCLUSIONS Speeding behavior can be influenced by various factors in terms of driver-vehicle characteristics, physical condition, driving actions, and environmental conditions. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS The findings could serve to develop effective countermeasures to reduce speeding behavior and improve traffic safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guopeng Zhang
- College of Engineering, Zhejiang Normal University, 688 Yingbin Road, Jinhua, 321004, China; Key Laboratory of Urban Rail Transit Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Technology & Equipment of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Normal University, Zhejiang, 321005, China.
| | - Qianwei Xuan
- College of Engineering, Zhejiang Normal University, 688 Yingbin Road, Jinhua, 321004, China
| | - Ying Cai
- College of Engineering, Zhejiang Normal University, 688 Yingbin Road, Jinhua, 321004, China
| | - Xianghong Hu
- College of Engineering, Zhejiang Normal University, 688 Yingbin Road, Jinhua, 321004, China
| | - Yixin Yin
- College of Engineering, Zhejiang Normal University, 688 Yingbin Road, Jinhua, 321004, China
| | - Yan Li
- College of Engineering, Zhejiang Normal University, 688 Yingbin Road, Jinhua, 321004, China
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Goel R, Tiwari G, Varghese M, Bhalla K, Agrawal G, Saini G, Jha A, John D, Saran A, White H, Mohan D. Effectiveness of road safety interventions: An evidence and gap map. CAMPBELL SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS 2024; 20:e1367. [PMID: 38188231 PMCID: PMC10765170 DOI: 10.1002/cl2.1367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2024]
Abstract
Background Road Traffic injuries (RTI) are among the top ten leading causes of death in the world resulting in 1.35 million deaths every year, about 93% of which occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite several global resolutions to reduce traffic injuries, they have continued to grow in many countries. Many high-income countries have successfully reduced RTI by using a public health approach and implementing evidence-based interventions. As many LMICs develop their highway infrastructure, adopting a similar scientific approach towards road safety is crucial. The evidence also needs to be evaluated to assess external validity because measures that have worked in high-income countries may not translate equally well to other contexts. An evidence gap map for RTI is the first step towards understanding what evidence is available, from where, and the key gaps in knowledge. Objectives The objective of this evidence gap map (EGM) is to identify existing evidence from all effectiveness studies and systematic reviews related to road safety interventions. In addition, the EGM identifies gaps in evidence where new primary studies and systematic reviews could add value. This will help direct future research and discussions based on systematic evidence towards the approaches and interventions which are most effective in the road safety sector. This could enable the generation of evidence for informing policy at global, regional or national levels. Search Methods The EGM includes systematic reviews and impact evaluations assessing the effect of interventions for RTI reported in academic databases, organization websites, and grey literature sources. The studies were searched up to December 2019. Selection Criteria The interventions were divided into five broad categories: (a) human factors (e.g., enforcement or road user education), (b) road design, infrastructure and traffic control, (c) legal and institutional framework, (d) post-crash pre-hospital care, and (e) vehicle factors (except car design for occupant protection) and protective devices. Included studies reported two primary outcomes: fatal crashes and non-fatal injury crashes; and four intermediate outcomes: change in use of seat belts, change in use of helmets, change in speed, and change in alcohol/drug use. Studies were excluded if they did not report injury or fatality as one of the outcomes. Data Collection and Analysis The EGM is presented in the form of a matrix with two primary dimensions: interventions (rows) and outcomes (columns). Additional dimensions are country income groups, region, quality level for systematic reviews, type of study design used (e.g., case-control), type of road user studied (e.g., pedestrian, cyclists), age groups, and road type. The EGM is available online where the matrix of interventions and outcomes can be filtered by one or more dimensions. The webpage includes a bibliography of the selected studies and titles and abstracts available for preview. Quality appraisal for systematic reviews was conducted using a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews, AMSTAR 2. Main Results The EGM identified 1859 studies of which 322 were systematic reviews, 7 were protocol studies and 1530 were impact evaluations. Some studies included more than one intervention, outcome, study method, or study region. The studies were distributed among intervention categories as: human factors (n = 771), road design, infrastructure and traffic control (n = 661), legal and institutional framework (n = 424), post-crash pre-hospital care (n = 118) and vehicle factors and protective devices (n = 111). Fatal crashes as outcomes were reported in 1414 records and non-fatal injury crashes in 1252 records. Among the four intermediate outcomes, speed was most commonly reported (n = 298) followed by alcohol (n = 206), use of seatbelts (n = 167), and use of helmets (n = 66). Ninety-six percent of the studies were reported from high-income countries (HIC), 4.5% from upper-middle-income countries, and only 1.4% from lower-middle and low-income countries. There were 25 systematic reviews of high quality, 4 of moderate quality, and 293 of low quality. Authors' Conclusions The EGM shows that the distribution of available road safety evidence is skewed across the world. A vast majority of the literature is from HICs. In contrast, only a small fraction of the literature reports on the many LMICs that are fast expanding their road infrastructure, experiencing rapid changes in traffic patterns, and witnessing growth in road injuries. This bias in literature explains why many interventions that are of high importance in the context of LMICs remain poorly studied. Besides, many interventions that have been tested only in HICs may not work equally effectively in LMICs. Another important finding was that a large majority of systematic reviews are of low quality. The scarcity of evidence on many important interventions and lack of good quality evidence-synthesis have significant implications for future road safety research and practice in LMICs. The EGM presented here will help identify priority areas for researchers, while directing practitioners and policy makers towards proven interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rahul Goel
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | - Geetam Tiwari
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | | | - Kavi Bhalla
- Department of Public Health SciencesUniversity of ChicagoChicagoIllinoisUSA
| | - Girish Agrawal
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | | | - Abhaya Jha
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | - Denny John
- Faculty of Life and Allied Health SciencesM S Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, BangaloreKarnatakaIndia
| | | | | | - Dinesh Mohan
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
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Zhou Y, Fu C, Jiang X, Yu Q, Liu H. Who might encounter hard-braking while speeding? Analysis for regular speeders using low-frequency taxi trajectories on arterial roads and explainable AI. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2024; 195:107382. [PMID: 37979465 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2023.107382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Revised: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 11/13/2023] [Indexed: 11/20/2023]
Abstract
Regular speeders are those who commit speeding recidivism during a period. Among their speeding behaviors, some occurring in specific scenarios may cause more hazards to road users. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate the driving risks if the regular speeders have different speeding propensities. This study considers speeding-related hard-braking events (SHEs) as a safety surrogate measure and recognizes the regular speeders who encounter at least one SHEs during the study period as risky individuals. To identify speeding behaviors and hard-braking events from low-frequency GPS trajectories, we compare the average travel speed between pairwise adjacent GPS points to the posted speed limit and examine the speed curve and the corresponding travel distance between these GPS points, respectively. Thereafter, a logistic model, XGBoost, and three 1D Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) including AlexNet CNN, Mini-AlexNet CNN, and Simple CNN are respectively developed to recognize the regular speeders who encountered SHEs based on their speeding propensities. The proposed Mini-AlexNet CNN achieves a global F1-score of 91% and recall of 90% on the testing data, which are superior to other models. Further, the study uses the Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) framework to visually interpret the contribution of speeding propensities on SHE likelihood. It is found that speeding by 50% or greater for no more than 285 m is the most dangerous kind among all the speeding behaviors. Speeding on roads without bicycle lanes or on roads with roadside parking and excessive accesses increases the probability of encountering SHEs. Based on the analyses, we put forward tailored recommendations that aim to restrict hazard-related speeding behaviors rather than speeding behaviors of all kinds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yue Zhou
- Flight Technology College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China
| | - Chuanyun Fu
- School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China.
| | - Xinguo Jiang
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
| | - Qiong Yu
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
| | - Haiyue Liu
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
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Huang B, Watson-Brown N, Truelove V. Low-range, mid-range and high-range speeding: The association with speeding habits, perceived legitimacy and deterrence. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2023; 87:313-322. [PMID: 38081704 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.08.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2023] [Revised: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Speeding is a global road safety concern contributing to an excessive number of fatal crashes and serious debilitating injuries. Research identifying amendable factors associated with speeding to inform interventions is critical. METHOD This study examined the association of habit, perceived legitimacy of enforcement, and deterrence elements with three levels of speeding behavior; low- (<10 km/hr over the posted speed limit), mid- (10-20 km/hr), and high-range (>20 km/hr) speeding. An online survey of 870 participants aged over 17 years (M = 37 years) was administered. RESULTS Approximately 80% of participants reported low-range speeding, 40% mid-range speeding, and 20% high-range speeding. Differences were found between speeding on urban and open roads with the proportion of participants greater for mid- and high-range speeding on open roads. Multiple linear regressions were run finding habit and deterrence variables to be significant predictors of all three levels of speeding. Perceived legitimacy of enforcement was a significant predictor of high-range speeding only. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS These findings suggest countermeasures that encourage good speed-related habits would be promising. It is also concluded that additional deterrence measures that reduce punishment avoidance experiences (e.g., better detection of speeding behaviors) are needed to further curb speeding behaviors. Nevertheless, the current punishment for all levels of speeding is perceived to be an effective deterrent. These recommendations inform policy, training and education, and campaigns that target engagement in speeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bonnie Huang
- MAIC/University of the Sunshine Coast Road Safety Research Collaboration, School of Law and Society, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, QLD 4556, Australia
| | - Natalie Watson-Brown
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), School of Psychology and Counselling, Faculty of Health, 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
| | - Verity Truelove
- MAIC/University of the Sunshine Coast Road Safety Research Collaboration, School of Law and Society, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, QLD 4556, Australia.
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McDonald H, Berecki-Gisolf J, Stephan K, Newstead S. Personality, perceptions and behavior: A study of speeding amongst drivers in Victoria, Australia. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2023; 86:390-400. [PMID: 37718067 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Revised: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Road crashes present a serious public health issue. Many people are seriously or fatally injured every year in avoidable crashes. While these crashes can have multiple contributing factors, including road design and condition, vehicle design and condition, the environment and human error, the performance of illegal driving behavior, including speeding, may also play a role. The current study aimed to examine the mediating influence that four potential deterrents (perceptions towards enforcement, crash risk, social norms and disapproval, and negative personal/emotional affect) have between the Big Five personality traits (conscientiousness; extraversion; agreeableness; neuroticism; openness) and expectations to speed. METHODS A total of 5,108 drivers in Victoria, Australia completed an online survey in 2019. A mediated regression analysis was used to examine pathways in a conceptual model developed for the study. RESULTS The results showed that perceptions towards the four potential deterrents examined did mediate the relationship (either completely or partially) between personality and expectations to speed. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study suggest that if interventions to deter illegal driving behavior are to be successful, one factor that could be taken into account is the personality traits of drivers who may be at greatest risk of the performance of illegal driving behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hayley McDonald
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Building 70, 21 Alliance Lane, Clayton Campus, Victoria 3800, Australia.
| | - Janneke Berecki-Gisolf
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Building 70, 21 Alliance Lane, Clayton Campus, Victoria 3800, Australia
| | - Karen Stephan
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Building 70, 21 Alliance Lane, Clayton Campus, Victoria 3800, Australia
| | - Stuart Newstead
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Building 70, 21 Alliance Lane, Clayton Campus, Victoria 3800, Australia
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Smyth BP, Davey A, Keenan E. Deterrence effect of penalties upon adolescent cannabis use. Ir J Psychol Med 2023:1-6. [PMID: 36794356 DOI: 10.1017/ipm.2023.5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/17/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Penalties are used in an effort to curtail drug use by citizens in most societies. There are growing calls for a reduction or elimination of such penalties. Deterrence theory suggests that use should increase if penalties reduce and vice versa. We sought to examine the relationship between changes to penalties for drug possession and adolescent cannabis use. METHOD Ten instances of penalty change occurred in Europe between 2000 and 2014, seven of which involved penalty reduction and three involved penalty increase. We conducted a secondary analysis of a series of cross-sectional surveys of 15-16-year-old school children, the ESPAD surveys, which are conducted every four years. We focused on past month cannabis use. We anticipated that an eight-year time span before and after each penalty change would yield two data points either side of the change. A simple trend line was fitted to the data points for each country. RESULTS In eight cases, the trend slope in past month cannabis use was in the direction predicted by deterrence theory, the two exceptions being the UK policy changes. Using the principals of binomial distributions, the likelihood of this happening by chance is 56/1024 = 0.05. The median change in the baseline prevalence rate was by 21%. CONCLUSIONS The science seems far from settled on this issue. There remains a distinct possibility that reducing penalties could contribute to small increases in adolescent cannabis use and consequently increase cannabis-related harms. This possibility should be considered in any political decision-making influencing drug policy changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bobby P Smyth
- Department of Public Health & Primary Care, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
| | - Aoife Davey
- National Drugs Rehabilitation Coordinator, National Social Inclusion Office, Health Service Executive, Palmerstown, Dublin 20, Ireland
| | - Eamon Keenan
- National Clinical Lead for Addiction Services, National Social Inclusion Office, Health Service Executive, Palmerstown, Dublin 20, Ireland
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Truelove V, Watson-Brown N, Mills L, Freeman J, Davey J. It's not a hard and fast rule: A qualitative investigation into factors influencing speeding among young drivers. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2022; 81:36-44. [PMID: 35589304 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2022.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2020] [Revised: 07/21/2021] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Research demonstrates that young drivers exceed the posted speed limit more frequently than older drivers, and this demographic is also subsequently overrepresented in road crash statistics. This behavior remains a worldwide problem despite legal enforcement efforts that have proven to have limited efficiency and/or produce counterintuitive results. METHOD Consequently, this study undertook a qualitative analysis in order to understand the factors that are perceived to both prevent and promote speeding behavior among young drivers, guided by self-determination theory (SDT). Focus groups were conducted with a total of 60 young drivers aged 17-25 years. An inductive thematic analysis approach was taken to analyze the data. RESULTS Findings revealed the following factors influence the prevention of speeding: (1) legal consequences were perceived to deter low-level speeding, (2) fear of injury was believed to prevent high-level speeding, and (3) speed awareness monitors were considered to be an effective countermeasure. Meanwhile, factors perceived to contribute to violating speed restrictions included: (1) perceiving it is safe to do so, (2) a perceived norm to speed, (3) emotions, and (4) unintentional speeding. According to SDT, the factors that were perceived to prevent speeding promote externalized self-regulatory processes and are therefore limited by short-term behavior change. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS The findings have important implications for designing countermeasures aimed at young drivers, not least illuminating the need to have education and media campaigns that target and build drivers' perceived competence, autonomy, and relatedness in relation to speeding in order to promote longer term compliance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Verity Truelove
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia; Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation (IHBI), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove 4059, Australia.
| | - Natalie Watson-Brown
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia
| | - Laura Mills
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia
| | - James Freeman
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia
| | - Jeremy Davey
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia
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Mills L, Freeman J, Truelove V, Davey J, Delhomme P. Comparative judgements of crash risk and driving ability for speeding behaviours. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2021; 79:68-75. [PMID: 34848021 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2020] [Revised: 04/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Preliminary research has indicated that numerous drivers perceive their risk of traffic crash to be less than other drivers, while perceiving their driving ability to be better. This phenomenon is referred to as 'comparative optimism' (CO) and may prove to inhibit the safe adoption of driving behaviors and/or dilute perceptions of negative outcomes. The objective of this study was to investigate comparative judgments regarding crash risk and driving ability, and how these judgments relate to self-reported speeding. METHOD There were 760 Queensland motorists comprised of 51.6% males and 48.2% females, aged 16-85 (M = 39.60). Participants completed either a paper or online version of a survey. Judgments of crash risk and driving ability were compared to two referents: the average same-age, same-sex driver, and the average same-age, same-sex V8 supercar champion. RESULTS Drivers displayed greater optimism when comparing their crash risk and driving ability to the average same-age, same- sex driver (respectively, 72%, 72.4%), than when comparing to a V8 supercar champion (respectively, 60%, 32.9%). When comparing judgements of crash risk and driving ability to a similar driver, it appears that participants in the present study are just about as optimistic about their risk of crash (i.e. 72%) as they are optimistic about their driving ability (i.e. 74.2%).
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Mills
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia.
| | - James Freeman
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia
| | - Verity Truelove
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia
| | - Jeremy Davey
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4556, Australia
| | - Patricia Delhomme
- Univ Gustave Eiffel, Université de Paris, LaPEA, F-78000 Versailles, France
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Truelove V, Freeman J, Kaye SA, Watson B, Mills L, Davey J. A unified deterrence-based model of legal and non-legal factors that influence young driver speeding behaviour. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2021; 160:106327. [PMID: 34371286 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2021] [Revised: 07/06/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Young driver speeding behaviour remains a large contributor to road trauma worldwide. In order to provide a more-in depth understanding of how to deter young drivers from this behaviour, this study developed and tested a model of the legal and non-legal factors that influence young driver's intentional speeding behaviour (exceeding the speed limit by more than 10 km/hr). A prospective survey design was conducted to measure the impact of perceptions of legal factors (including classical deterrence and reconceptualised deterrence variables) and non-legal factors (including the variables of fear of physical loss, material loss and perceived social sanctions, as well as the perception that it is safe to engage in the behaviour without being involved in a crash) at time 1, on engagement in speeding behaviour at time 2, which occurred 3 months later. A total of 200 participants aged 17-25 years completed both surveys (Mean age = 20.44 years). Using structural equation modelling, a unique model combining classical and extended deterrence theory, as well as prominent non-legal factors was created, and the variables were able to explain 41% of the variance in speeding behaviour. A high perceived severity of the punishment, experiencing direct punishment avoidance and perceiving that it is safe to speed were significant direct predictors. Meanwhile, there were also numerous significant partially mediated relationships found for both legal and non-legal variables. These findings provide important implications for both the application of deterrence-based theories in road safety and for improving countermeasures to deter young drivers more effectively from engagement in speeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Verity Truelove
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland, 4556, Australia; Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation (IHBI), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove 4059, Australia.
| | - James Freeman
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland, 4556, Australia
| | - Sherrie-Anne Kaye
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation (IHBI), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove 4059, Australia
| | - Barry Watson
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation (IHBI), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove 4059, Australia
| | - Laura Mills
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland, 4556, Australia
| | - Jeremy Davey
- Road Safety Research Collaboration, University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Dr, Sippy Downs, Queensland, 4556, Australia
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Zhou Y, Jiang X, Fu C, Liu H. Operational factor analysis of the aggressive taxi speeders using random parameters Bayesian LASSO modeling approach. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2021; 157:106183. [PMID: 33984758 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2020] [Revised: 04/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Partial taxi speeders are observed with both high speeding frequency and severity (range). They thereby can be viewed as aggressive speeders whose behaviors may result in more hazards than others. Among the factors contributing to taxi speeding, the operational factors are proven to be deterministic. However, previous studies mainly investigate the operational factors of taxi speeding frequency, which fail to comprehensively unveil the impact of factors on speeders, especially for aggressive speeders. This study intends to disclose the operational factors affecting the aggressive taxi speeders with the random parameters Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) modeling approach. Taxi speeding behaviors and several operational factors are extracted from taxi GPS trajectory data in Chengdu, China. Based on the hourly speeding frequency and average speeding severity of each speeder, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is employed to categorize taxi speeders into three cohorts: restrained speeder (RS), moderate speeder (MS), and belligerent speeder (BS). Compared to RS, MS and BS are treated as the aggressive taxi speeders. Several binary logistic models are developed with RS as the reference category. The random parameters Bayesian binary logistic LASSO model that captures the unobserved heterogeneity and tackles the multicollinearity is found to be the best fit model to identify the significant operational factors. The results indicate that aggressive taxi speeders are linked to longer daily driving distance and cruise distance, shorter delivery time, higher hourly income, driving at night, and driving on low-speed limit roads. However, intensive lane-changes and sufficient daily naps do not contribute to aggressive taxi speeders. Moreover, BS is more sensitive to the operational factors than MS. This study stresses the necessity of implementing speeder classification in taxi driver management and conceiving countermeasures considering the operational factors which are significantly associated with the aggressive taxi speeders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yue Zhou
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
| | - Xinguo Jiang
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
| | - Chuanyun Fu
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China.
| | - Haiyue Liu
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
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Motorists’ perceptions of factors that influence payment of speeding fines in Cape Town, South Africa: application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHOLOGY 2021. [DOI: 10.1177/00812463211011746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Despite the aggressive enforcement of speed limits, speeding remains the second leading cause of fatalities in vehicle accidents in South Africa. Speeding fines are one mechanism for enforcing speed limits; however, these are only effective deterrents against speeding if fines are enforced. The potential effectiveness of speeding fines to increase safety on South African roads is rendered almost obsolete because so many offenders default on payment. Our aim was to utilise the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a framework to explore motorists’ perceptions of factors that may influence the payment of speeding fines in Cape Town, South Africa. Self-report data were collected from participants who had received fines ( n = 268), about their speed fine-paying behaviour, their perceptions of the consequences of non-payment, subjective and social norms, and control beliefs about the ease with which fines can be paid and motorists’ ability to afford fines. Regression analysis showed that motorists who report paying their fines are more likely than those who do not pay to hold beliefs that non-payment will result in serious consequences, affirm injunctive norms supporting the payment of fines, believe that it is easy to pay fines, and are able to afford to pay. This study provides novel insights into the potential of theories of behaviour change to design evidence-based behavioural interventions to encourage motorists to comply with speeding fines and hence to improve road safety in South Africa.
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McDonald H, Berecki-Gisolf J, Stephan K, Newstead S. Traffic offending and deterrence: An examination of recidivism amongst drivers in Victoria, Australia born prior to 1975. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0239942. [PMID: 33002058 PMCID: PMC7529262 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239942] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2020] [Accepted: 09/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
To deter the performance of illegal driving behaviours, traffic infringement notices may be issued. Whilst there is a substantial body of research that has examined rates of reoffending following a traffic infringement, there have been few studies examining the length of time to next traffic offence. Where this research has been conducted, the findings do not provide current understandings, given the substantial changes in traffic sanctioning over time. The aim of this study was to address this gap, by examining risk factors for recidivism following a driver receiving a traffic infringement notice, as well as the time to next traffic offence. Licensing and infringements data held in the Driver Licensing System (DLS), maintained by the road authority in Victoria, Australia were used. All drivers included in the study were born prior to 1975, and received their first Victorian drivers licence between 1994 and 2016. Data from 203,620 drivers were used. Cox proportional hazards modelling was undertaken to examine factors associated with recidivism within 12 months of receiving a traffic infringement. 131,691 (64.7%) drivers had received at least one traffic infringement in Victoria, Australia since receiving their Victorian driver's licence. Factors found to be associated with longer time to further traffic offending in the year that followed the first infringement included being female; receiving a first Victorian driver's licence when aged 45+ years; and being licenced 10+ years. Traffic infringements deter some groups of Victorian drivers, but not others. If drivers are to be deterred from further illegal driving behaviour, it is important other countermeasures are developed and trialled.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hayley McDonald
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Janneke Berecki-Gisolf
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Karen Stephan
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Stuart Newstead
- Monash University Accident Research Centre, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
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Self-Reported Speeding Among New York City Adult Drivers, 2015-2016. J Community Health 2020; 46:626-634. [PMID: 32951114 DOI: 10.1007/s10900-020-00924-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/10/2020] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury related deaths. Urban areas accommodate multiple road users and pedestrians account for a larger share of traffic fatalities. Speed reduction has been one component of New York City's multidisciplinary approach to reduce traffic fatalities-Vision Zero. Data from the New York City (NYC) Community Health Survey 2015-2016 were used to document population-based estimates of self-reported speeding (defined as driving ten miles per hour or more over the posted speed limit in the past 30 days) among NYC adult drivers collected soon after the adoption of Vision Zero in 2014. Self-reported speeding is common, with nearly two-thirds (63%) of adult drivers indicating they ever sped and 13% often speeding. In adjusted multivariable models, often speeding was more common among younger drivers vs. older drivers (adjusted prevalence ratio: 2.77; 95%CI 1.93-3.98), males vs. females (adjusted prevalence ratio: 1.59; 95%CI 1.35-1.87), wealthier drivers vs. poorer drivers (adjusted prevalence ratio: 1.37; 95%CI 1.10-1.70) and those reporting worse perceived social cohesion vs. better perceived social cohesion (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.51; 95%CI 1.09-2.10). Population-based health surveys facilitate exploration of a range of potential influences on health behaviors.
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Dong H, Jia N, Tian J, Ma S. The effectiveness and influencing factors of a penalty point system in China from the perspective of risky driving behaviors. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2019; 131:171-179. [PMID: 31277020 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.06.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2018] [Revised: 03/20/2019] [Accepted: 06/12/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Many countries have adopted penalty point systems (PPS) to deter drivers from breaking traffic laws. To investigate the effectiveness of PPS on reducing illegal driving behavior, this study analyzed traffic violation data of a Chinese city in 2017. This analysis revealed that 1) risky driving behaviors (RDBs) are among the main causes of traffic violations and 2) almost half of the offenders with multiple violations committed the same traffic rule violations more than once. To further explain these phenomena, a survey in another Chinese city-Tianjin-was conducted. Considering the fact that most types of RDBs will, if detected by the authorities, result in traffic violations, the present study investigated the influence of a PPS, represented by penalty experience (PE), on traffic violation behaviors from the perspective of RDBs. Moreover, the impact of cognitive processes on driving behaviors via self-efficacy was considered. We found that drivers' PE is positively associated with their RDBs and that offenders with more PE are more inclined to commit RDBs; we further observed that self-efficacy partially mediates the relationship between PE and RDBs. However, no gender difference in the effect of PE on RDBs was discovered, thus indicating that PE has the same effect on male and female drivers. Based on these findings, some strategies are suggested (such as the Increasing Block Penalty Points Policy) to improve the effectiveness of the PPS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongming Dong
- Institute of Systems Engineering, College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
| | - Ning Jia
- Institute of Systems Engineering, College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
| | - Junfang Tian
- Institute of Systems Engineering, College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
| | - Shoufeng Ma
- Institute of Systems Engineering, College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
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Szogi E, Darvell M, Freeman J, Truelove V, Palk G, Davey J, Armstrong K. Does getting away with it count? An application of stafford and warr's reconceptualised model of deterrence to drink driving. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2017; 108:261-267. [PMID: 28923516 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2016] [Revised: 08/03/2017] [Accepted: 08/03/2017] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Drink drivers continue to be disproportionately represented in road mortalities and morbidities. Given these costs, countermeasures that effectively reduce the behaviour (and its consequences) are imperative. Research has produced inconsistent findings regarding the deterrent effects of some countermeasures on drink driving behaviour, namely legal sanctions, suggesting other factors may be more influential. This study aimed to determine which deterrence measures based on Classical Deterrence Theory and Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualised model of deterrence influence the propensity to drink and drive over the legal blood alcohol content limit of 0.05. In total, 1257 Australian drivers aged from 16 to 85 years completed a questionnaire assessing their self-reported drink driving behaviour and perceptions of legal sanctions. Consistent with previous research, past experiences of direct punishment avoidance was the most significant predictor of drink driving. Additionally, perceptions of personal certainty of apprehension were a significant (albeit weak) negative predictor of drink driving. Counterintuitively, experiences of indirect punishment were predictive of self-reported drink driving. Similarly, penalty severity produced mixed results as those who considered a penalty would be severe were less likely to drink and drive. However those that considered the penalty would cause a considerable impact on their lives, were more likely to drink and drive. Taken together, these findings suggest that while the threat of apprehension and punishment may influence self-reported drink driving behaviours, committing and offence while avoiding detection is a significant influence upon ongoing offending. This paper will further elaborate on the findings in regards to developing salient and effective deterrents that produce a lasting effect.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Szogi
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT),Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland(CARRS-Q), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia
| | - M Darvell
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT),Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland(CARRS-Q), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia
| | - J Freeman
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT),Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland(CARRS-Q), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia.
| | - V Truelove
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT),Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland(CARRS-Q), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia
| | - G Palk
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT),Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland(CARRS-Q), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia
| | - J Davey
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT),Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland(CARRS-Q), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia
| | - K Armstrong
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT),Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland(CARRS-Q), 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia
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Elvik R. Association between increase in fixed penalties and road safety outcomes: A meta-analysis. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2016; 92:202-210. [PMID: 27085146 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.03.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2015] [Revised: 03/30/2016] [Accepted: 03/31/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Studies that have evaluated the association between increases in traffic fine amounts (fixed penalties) and changes in compliance with road traffic law or the number of accidents are synthesised by means of meta-analysis. The studies were few and different in many respects. Nine studies were included in the meta-analysis of changes in compliance. Four studies were included in the meta-analysis of changes in accidents. Increasing traffic fines was found to be associated with small changes in the rate of violations. The changes were non-linear. For increases up to about 100%, violations were reduced. For larger increases, no reduction in violations was found. A small reduction in fatal accidents was associated with increased fixed penalties, varying between studies from less than 1-12%. The main pattern of changes in violations was similar in the fixed-effects and random-effects models of meta-analysis, meta-regression and when simple (non-weighted) mean values were computed. The main findings are thus robust, although most of the primary studies did not control very well for potentially confounding factors. Summary estimates of changes in violations or accidents should be treated as provisional and do not necessarily reflect causal relationships.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rune Elvik
- Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalleen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway.
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Watson B, Watson A, Siskind V, Fleiter J, Soole D. Profiling high-range speeding offenders: investigating criminal history, personal characteristics, traffic offences, and crash history. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2015; 74:87-96. [PMID: 25463948 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.10.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2014] [Revised: 10/10/2014] [Accepted: 10/10/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
This paper reports profiling information for speeding offenders and is part of a larger project that assessed the deterrent effects of increased speeding penalties in Queensland, Australia, using a total of 84,456 speeding offences. The speeding offenders were classified into three groups based on the extent and severity of an index offence: once-only low-rang offenders; repeat high-range offenders; and other offenders. The three groups were then compared in terms of personal characteristics, traffic offences, crash history and criminal history. Results revealed a number of significant differences between repeat high-range offenders and those in the other two offender groups. Repeat high-range speeding offenders were more likely to be male, younger, hold a provisional and a motorcycle licence, to have committed a range of previous traffic offences, to have a significantly greater likelihood of crash involvement, and to have been involved in multiple-vehicle crashes than drivers in the other two offender types. Additionally, when a subset of offenders' criminal histories were examined, results revealed that repeat high-range speeding offenders were also more likely to have committed a previous criminal offence compared to once only low-range and other offenders and that 55.2% of the repeat high-range offenders had a criminal history. They were also significantly more likely to have committed drug offences and offences against order than the once only low-range speeding offenders, and significantly more likely to have committed regulation offences than those in the other offenders group. Overall, the results indicate that speeding offenders are not an homogeneous group and that, therefore, more tailored and innovative sanctions should be considered and evaluated for high-range recidivist speeders because they are a high-risk road user group.
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Affiliation(s)
- B Watson
- Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia.
| | - A Watson
- Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia.
| | - V Siskind
- Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia.
| | - J Fleiter
- Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia.
| | - D Soole
- Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia.
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