Land use and traffic collisions: A link-attribute analysis using Empirical Bayes method

Monitoring day and dark traffic collisions in Toronto neighbourhoods with implications for injury reduction and Vision Zero initiatives: A spatial analysis approach

The City of Toronto adopted a Vision Zero strategy in 2016 that aims to eliminate deaths and serious injuries from vehicular collisions. The strategy includes policies to improve lighting to reduce collision risks, and past research has suggested lighting as a road safety factor. We apply Bayesian spatial analysis (including Poisson log-normal regression modelling, shared component spatial modelling, and Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling) to publicly available data on traffic collisions where persons are killed or seriously injured (KSI) based on Day/Dark conditions. We assess (1) links between KSI risk and socioeconomic and built environment factors, (2) spatial distributions of relative Day & Dark KSI risk, and (3) area-specific trends in space and time for Day-Dark KSI risk change across Toronto neighbourhoods. Our analysis does not find significant associations between socioeconomic/built environment factors and KSI risk, but we uncover neighbourhoods with heightened Dark KSI risk and pronounced Day-Dark KSI changes compared to Toronto's mean area trend. Findings highlight the need for increased policy attention for impacts of lighting on collisions and provide insight for focus regions for improved Vision Zero policy development.

A Method for Locational Risk Estimation of Vehicle-Children Accidents Considering Children's Travel Purposes

The reduction in locational traffic accident risks through appropriate traffic safety management is important to support, maintain, and improve children's safe and independent mobility. This study proposes and verifies a method to evaluate the risk of elementary school students-vehicle accidents (ESSVAs) at individual intersections on residential roads in Toyohashi city, Japan, considering the difference in travel purposes (i.e., school commuting purpose; SCP or non-school commuting purpose: NSCP), based on a statistical regression model and Empirical Bayes (EB) estimation. The results showed that the ESSVA risk of children's travel in SCP is lower than that in NSCP, and not only ESSVAs in SCP but also most ESSVAs in NSCP occurred on or near the designated school routes. Therefore, it would make sense to implement traffic safety management and measures focusing on school routes. It was also found that the locational ESSVA risk structure is different depending on whether the purpose of the children's travels is SCP or NSCP in the statistical model. Finally, it was suggested that evaluation of locational ESSVA risks based on the EB estimation is useful for efficiently extracting locations where traffic safety measures should be implemented compared to that only based on the number of accidents in the past.

Injury Metrics for Assessing the Risk of Acute Subdural Hematoma in Traumatic Events

Worldwide, the ocurrence of acute subdural hematomas (ASDHs) in road traffic crashes is a major public health problem. ASDHs are usually produced by loss of structural integrity of one of the cerebral bridging veins (CBVs) linking the parasagittal sinus to the brain. Therefore, to assess the risk of ASDH it is important to know the mechanical conditions to which the CBVs are subjected during a potentially traumatic event (such as a traffic accident or a fall from height). Recently, new studies on CBVs have been published allowing much more accurate prediction of the likelihood of mechanical failure of CBVs. These new data can be used to propose new damage metrics, which make more accurate predictions about the probability of occurrence of ASDH in road crashes. This would allow a better assessement of the effects of passive safety countermeasures and, consequently, to improve vehicle restraint systems. Currently, some widely used damage metrics are based on partially obsolete data and measurements of the mechanical behavior of CBVs that have not been confirmed by subsequent studies. This paper proposes a revision of some existing metrics and constructs a new metric based on more accurate recent data on the mechanical failure of human CBVs.

Influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the frequency of vehicle crashes caused by driver inattention: A comparison between rural roads and urban roads

INTRODUCTION

With prevalent and increased attention to driver inattention (DI) behavior, this research provides a comprehensive investigation of the influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the DI-related vehicle crash frequency per year. Specifically, a comparative analysis between DI-related crash frequency in rural road segments and urban road segments is conducted.

METHOD

Utilizing DI-related crash data collected from North Carolina for the period 2013-2017, three types of models: (1) Poisson/negative binomial (NB) model, (2) Poisson hurdle (HP) model/negative binomial hurdle (HNB) model, and (3) random intercepts Poisson hurdle (RIHP) model/random intercepts negative binomial hurdle (RIHNB) model, are applied to handle excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the dataset.

RESULTS

The results show that RIHP and RIHNB models distinctly outperform other models in terms of goodness-of-fit. The presence of commercial areas is found to increase the probability and frequency of DI-related crashes in both rural and urban regions. Roadway characteristics (such as non-freeways, segments with multiple lanes, and traffic signals) are positively associated with increased DI-related crash counts, whereas state-secondary routes and speed limits (higher than 35 mph) are associated with decreased DI-related crash counts in rural and urban regions. Besides, horizontal curved and longitudinal bottomed segments and segments with double yellow lines/no passing zones are likely to have fewer DI-related crashes in urban areas. Medians in rural road segments are found to be effective to reduce DI-related crashes. Practical Applications: These findings provide a valuable understanding of the DI-related crash frequency for transportation agencies to propose effective countermeasures and safety treatments (e.g., dispatching more police enforcement or surveillance cameras in commercial areas, and setting more medians in rural roads) to mitigate the negative consequences of DI behavior.

Examining Hotspots of Traffic Collisions and their Spatial Relationships with Land Use: A GIS-Based Geographically Weighted Regression Approach for Dammam, Saudi Arabia

Examining the relationships between vehicle crash patterns and urban land use is fundamental to improving crash predictions, creating guidance, and comprehensive policy recommendations to avoid crash occurrences and mitigate their severities. In the existing literature, statistical models are frequently used to quantify the association between crash outcomes and available explanatory variables. However, they are unable to capture the latent spatial heterogeneity accurately. Further, the vast majority of previous studies have focused on detailed spatial analysis of crashes from an aggregated viewpoint without considering the attributes of the built environment and land use. This study first uses geographic information systems (GIS) to examine crash hotspots based on two severity groups, seven prevailing crash causes, and three predominant crash types in the City of Dammam, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). GIS-based geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis technique was then utilized to uncover the spatial relationships of traffic collisions with population densities and relate it to the land use of each neighborhood. Results showed that Fatal and Injury (FI) crashes were mostly located in residential neighborhoods and near public facilities having low to medium population densities on highways with relatively higher speed limits. Distribution of hotspots and GWR-based analysis for crash causes showed that crashes due to “sudden lane deviation” accounted for the highest proportion of crashes that were concentrated mainly in the Central Business District (CBD) of the study area. Similarly, hotspots and GWR analysis for crash types revealed that “collisions between motor vehicles” constitute a significant proportion of the total crashes, with epicenters mostly stationed in high-density residential neighborhoods. The outcomes of this study could provide analysts and practitioners with crucial insights to understand the complex inter-relationships between traffic safety and land use. It can provide useful guidance to policymakers for better planning and effective management strategies to enhance safety at zonal levels.

A composite zonal index for biking attractiveness and safety

Zonal characteristics (e.g. built environment, network configuration, socio-demographics, and land use) have been shown to affect biking attractiveness and safety. However, previously developed bikeability indices do not account for cyclist-vehicle crash risk. This study aims to develop a comprehensive zone-based index to represent both biking attractiveness and cyclist crash risk. The developed Bike Composite Index (BCI) consists of two sub-indices representing bike attractiveness and bike safety, which are estimated using Bike Kilometers Travelled (BKT) and cyclist-vehicle crash data from 134 traffic analysis zones (TAZ) in the City of Vancouver, Canada. The Bike Attractiveness Index is calculated from five factors: bike network density, centrality, and weighted slope as well as land use mix and recreational density. The Bike Safety Index is calculated from bike network coverage, continuity, and complexity as well as signal density and recreational density. The correlation between the Bike Attractiveness Index and the Bike Safety Index in Vancouver is low (r = 0.11), supporting the need to account for both biking attractiveness and safety in the composite index.

Identification of Vehicle-Pedestrian Collision Hotspots at the Micro-Level Using Network Kernel Density Estimation and Random Forests: A Case Study in Shanghai, China

The improvement of pedestrian safety plays a crucial role in developing a safe and friendly walking environments, which can contribute to urban sustainability. A preliminary step in improving pedestrian safety is to identify hazardous road locations for pedestrians. This study proposes a framework for the identification of vehicle-pedestrian collision hot spots by integrating the information about both the likelihood of the occurrence of vehicle-pedestrian collisions and the potential for the reduction in vehicle-pedestrian crashes. First, a vehicle-pedestrian collision density surface was produced via network kernel density estimation. By assigning a threshold value, possible vehicle-pedestrian hot spots were identified. To obtain the potential for vehicle-pedestrian collision reduction, random forests was employed to model the density with a set of variables describing vehicle and pedestrian flows. The potential for crash reduction was then measured as the difference between the observed vehicle-pedestrian crash density and the prediction produced by the random forests models. The final hotspots were determined by excluding those with a crash reduction value of no more than zero. The method was applied to the identification of hazardous road locations for pedestrians in a district in Shanghai, China. The result indicates that the method is useful for decision-making support.

Understanding re-distribution of road deposited particle-bound pollutants using a Bayesian Network (BN) approach

Road deposited pollutants (build-up) are continuously re-distributed by external factors such as traffic and wind turbulence, influencing stormwater runoff quality. However, current stormwater quality modelling approaches do not account for the re-distribution of pollutants. This undermines the accuracy of stormwater quality predictions, constraining the design of effective stormwater treatment measures. This study, using over 1000 data points, developed a Bayesian Network modelling approach to investigate the re-distribution of pollutant build-up on urban road surfaces. BTEX, which are a group of highly toxic pollutants, was the case study pollutants. Build-up sampling was undertaken in Shenzhen, China, using a dry and wet vacuuming method. The research outcomes confirmed that the vehicle type and particle size significantly influence the re-distribution of particle-bound BTEX. Compared to heavy-duty traffic in commercial areas, light-duty traffic dominates the re-distribution of particles of all size ranges. In industrial areas, heavy-duty traffic re-distributes particles >75 μm, and light-duty traffic re-distributes particles <75 μm. In residential areas, light-duty traffic re-distributes particles >300 μm and <75 μm and heavy-duty traffic re-distributes particles in the 300-150 μm range. The study results provide important insights to improve stormwater quality modelling and the interpretation of modelling outcomes, contributing to safeguard the urban water environment.