Deterrent effects of demerit points and license sanctions on drivers' traffic law violations using a proportional hazard model

Exploring the perceived effectiveness and strictness of penalties for traffic offences: The influence of prior punishment experience and evaluation perspective (personal vs. general)

INTRODUCTION

Previous research has identified the perception of penalties as one of the most important deterrents to road traffic offenses. This study investigated whether the perceived effectiveness and the perceived strictness of penalties for different traffic offenses are associated with prior punishment experience and evaluation perspective (personal - if participants were being punished themselves, vs. general - for punishing all drivers).

METHOD

A convenience sample of 1,374 Lithuanian drivers participated in the survey (56.3% males; aged 18-77 years). Among them, 801 participants had no penalties for traffic offenses, 333 reported monetary fines in the last year, and 240 reported having their drivers license suspended at least once in their driving career. A scale with 10 specific penalties for traffic offenses was developed to measure the perceived effectiveness and strictness of penalties. Half of the participants evaluated the penalties as if they were personally sanctioned for each traffic offense (personal perspective), while the other half assessed the effectiveness and strictness of the penalties for drivers in general.

RESULTS

The results indicated that the perceived effectiveness of penalties was related to the evaluation perspective, being higher for changing one's own behavior than for changing behavior in general. However, the perceived effectiveness of penalties was not related to prior punishment experience. Males and drivers who had experienced their license being suspended reported the highest perceived strictness of the penalties, whereas females and drivers with no prior punishment experience perceived penalties as the least strict.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

These findings suggest the need for developing new ways of communicating penalties to different groups of drivers. Nevertheless, this research was exploratory in nature and further research is warranted.

How do drunk-driving events escalate into drunk-driving crashes? An empirical analysis of Beijing from a spatiotemporal perspective

Drunk-driving events often escalate into drunk-driving crashes, however, the contributing factors of this progression remain elusive. To mitigate the likelihood of crashes stemming from drunk-driving events, this paper introduces the notion of 'the severity of drunk-driving event' and examines the complex relationship between the severity and its contributing factors, considering spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The study utilizes a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Binary Logistic Regression (GTWBLR) model to conduct spatiotemporal analysis based on police-reported drunk-driving events in Beijing, China. The results show that most factors passed the non-stationary test, indicating their effects on the severity of drunk-driving event vary significantly across different spatial and temporal domains. Notably, during non-workday, drunk-driving events in northeast of Beijing are more likely to escalate into crashes. Furthermore, severe weather during winter in the northwest of Beijing is associated with high risk of drunk-driving crashes. Based on these insights, the authorities can strengthen drunk-driving checks in the northeast region of Beijing, particularly during non-workdays. And it is crucial to promptly clear accumulated snow on the roads during severe winter weather to improve road safety. These insights and recommendations are highly valuable for reducing the risk of drunk-driving crashes.

Investment in roads and traffic safety: linked to economic development? A European comparison

This study analyzes how economic resources invested in roads may affect mortality, depending on the level of economic development of a country. To this end, 23 European countries were classified into two groups-high-income countries and low-income countries-according to their average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita over the period 1998-2016. The economic resources are considered through the investment in construction and the maintenance expenditure. Further variables are included to control for several factors related to the infrastructure, socioeconomics, legislation, and meteorology. Fixed-effects panel data models were built separately for the interurban road network of each group of countries. These models also capture the international inequalities within each group and the country-specific national trend for the study period. The main results indicate a reduction effect on the fatality rate of road maintenance expenditure (in both groups), and of the investment in construction (in the low-income countries). Other variables-such as proportion of motorways, motorization rate, unemployment rate, GDP per capita, alcohol consumption, Demerit Point System, and mean annual precipitation-showed statistically significant results as well. Finally, the country-specific fixed effects and the country-specific trend were mapped geographically, to better reflect national conditions for achieving lower fatality rates in the high-income countries, and greater progress in reducing fatalities in the low-income countries. In the end, this study provides evidence to policy-makers that can help to achieve a safer and more sustainable transport system, namely, how to tackle an ongoing major problem-traffic-related deaths-when attending and allocating the economic resources that road infrastructure needs.

Risk perceptions and DUI decisions of drivers in different legal environments: New evidence on differential deterrence from a Chinese sample

OBJECTIVES

Research on the deterrent effects of driving-under-the-influence (DUI) laws has been limited in China, which has criminalized drunk driving since May 2011 yet the effectiveness of this legislation remains unclear. Primary studies are needed to confirm whether government reports of reductions in DUI rates since then can indeed match changes in driver perceptions of DUI risk, and if so, be attributed to what specific components of the DUI legal environments. Based on the classical theory of deterrence and recent advances in differential deterrence, this study adopted a conjoint experiment from a previous US study that simulated the decision-making process of potential drinking drivers, and evaluated how DUI sanctions and enforcement practices contributed differentially to the three components of deterrence (i.e., certainty, swiftness, and severity of punishment). Key individual characteristics and nonlegal factors, as suggested by differential deterrence research to moderate the impact of DUI laws, were also considered.

METHODS

A Web-based conjoint experiment was conducted on a sample of 109 college students from two major universities in Shenzhen, China. Participants were randomly assigned to blocks of hypothetical scenarios composed of different levels of DUI enforcement and penalties, and asked to choose from a pair of scenarios each time, in which they were more likely to drink and drive. They also answered questions adapted from previous studies that measured key individual factors in relation to differential deterrence, such as informal sanction threat, moral inhibition, and personal and vicarious experiences with punishment. Such individual differences were accounted for in both a conventional two-level mixed logit aggregate model and a Hierarchical Bayes model.

RESULTS

Consistent with prior findings in Western countries, DUI enforcement intensity, was found to be the strongest deterrent to potential drinking drivers in China. License suspension, as an administrative punishment that can be swiftly implemented, was also effective in deterring the Chinese drivers, who however were much more likely to fear the revocation of their licenses rather than a 6-month suspension only. Meanwhile, they were notably deterred by the possibility of being in jail for 1-3 days, let alone for 1-2 months. Altogether, enforcement, license suspension and jail penalties accounted for more than 75 percent of attribute impact on drivers' decision to drink and drive, whereas fine penalty and license points had almost no effect. On the other hand, nonlegal factors such as informal sanction threat and vicarious experiences were found to have significantly moderated the deterrent effects of DUI laws.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, this study quantified the unique effects of perceived certainty, swiftness, and severity of DUI punishment in the Chinese context, and supported the usefulness of conjoint experiments for examining risk perceptions and DUI decisions in different legal environments. It also provided new empirical evidence on differential deterrence and pointed out the need of determining for which subsets of individuals and under what conditions can legal sanctions successfully deter potential offenders. Such research will help researchers and policy makers better understand the role of deterrence, for more effective policy development related to DUI as well as other important traffic safety issues.

Current trauma care system in Saudi Arabia: A scoping literature review

BACKGROUND

Trauma is one of the leading causes of death worldwide with millions of people dying each year, particularly in low or middle-income countries. This paper describes and evaluates the current trauma system (TS) in Saudi Arabia (SA).

METHODS

A scoping literature review was performed, incorporating an extensive search of Medline and Embase databases for refereed literature, as well as a search of grey literature to locate unpublished articles or reports in English or Arabic. All publications were assessed against the World Health Organization (WHO) Trauma System Maturity Index (TSMI) and American College of Surgeon's (ACS) criteria.

RESULTS

Despite local injury prevention efforts, Motor Vehicle Crashes (MVC) remain the primary cause of injuries in SA. Prehospital trauma care in SA aligns with level III care as described in the WHO TSMI classification system, based on the presence of formal emergency medical services and universal access to care. With respect to the ACS classification, no clear written guidelines, either for field triage or trauma destination protocols such as trauma bypass, were identified in prehospital trauma care. The role of secondary and tertiary facilities in treating trauma patients is unclear, with no clear referral linkages, suggesting a level I to III grading of SA's trauma care facilities. Currently, there is no national or regional electronic trauma registry, no quality assurance program, and active involvement in research projects related to injuries is limited.

CONCLUSION

The current SA TS has strengths but there are key features missing in comparison to other systems globally. As MVCs remain a leading cause of death/ disability, efforts to reduce the prevalence and impact of MVC burden in SA through development of a stronger national TS are warranted.

Effects of the penalty mechanism against traffic violations in China: A joint frailty model of recurrent violations and a terminal accident

A penalty mechanism is usually considered as a powerful means to reduce the probability of traffic violations and accidents by encouraging drivers to comply with traffic regulations. Penalty point and fine strategies are often used in parallel. Different degrees of penalty points and/or fines are imposed according to the specific violation behavior of drivers. However, the question of whether each penalty produces positive effects in maintaining a driver's compliance with traffic regulations and promoting the driver's traffic safety is still unanswered. This study focuses on quantifying the effects of penalty point and fine strategies on violation recurrences and accident occurrences of drivers. A frailty survival analysis method is conducted to jointly model the occurrence of violation and accident events of each individual. The frailty term in the model is leveraged to address the unobserved heterogeneity among drivers. Personal characteristics and penalty status are also incorporated as covariates in the model. Actual violation and accident data from a province in China are utilized to calibrate the model. The results show that penalty point strategy exhibits deterrent and binding effects; however, penalty fine strategy does not show the expected effects. The number of years of driving is also a significant factor that influences violation recurrence and accident occurrence. The present study provides insightful information for improving violation penalty mechanisms.

A heterogeneity based case-control analysis of motorcyclist's injury crashes: Evidence from motorcycle crash causation study

The main objective of this study is to quantify how different "policy-sensitive" factors are associated with risk of motorcycle injury crashes, while controlling for rider-specific, psycho-physiological, and other observed/unobserved factors. The analysis utilizes data from a matched case-control design collected through the FHWA's Motorcycle Crash Causation Study. In particular, 351 cases (motorcyclists involved in injury crashes) are analyzed vis-à-vis similarly-at-risk 702 matched controls (motorcyclists not involved in crashes). Unlike traditional conditional estimation of relative risks, the paper presents heterogeneity based statistical analysis that accounts for the possibility of both within and between matched case-control variations. Overall, the correlations between key risk factors and injury crash propensity exhibit significant observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The results of best-fit random parameters logit model with heterogeneity-in-means show that riders with partial helmet coverage (U.S. DOT compliant helmets with partial coverage, least intrusive covering only the top half of the cranium) have a significantly lower risk of injury crash involvement. Lack of motorcycle rider conspicuity captured by dark (red) upper body clothing is associated with significantly higher injury crash risk (odds ratio 3.87, 95% CI: 1.63, 9.61). Importantly, a rider's motorcycle-oriented lower clothing (e.g., cannot easily get stuck in the machinery) significantly lowers the odds of injury crash involvement. Regarding the effectiveness of training, formal motorcycle driving training in recent years was associated with lower injury crash propensity. Finally, riders with less sleep prior to crash/interview exhibited 1.97 times higher odds of crash involvement compared to riders who had more than 5 h of sleep. Methodologically, the conclusion is that the correlations of several rider, exposure, apparel, and riding history related factors with crash risk are not homogeneous and in fact vary in magnitude as well as direction. The study results indicate the need to develop appropriate countermeasures, such as refresher motorcycle training courses, prevention of sleep-deprived/fatigued riding, and riding under the influence of alcohol and drugs.