A heterogeneity based case-control analysis of motorcyclist's injury crashes: Evidence from motorcycle crash causation study

Developing improved crash prevention approaches through in-depth investigation of motorcycle crash causation patterns

Despite advancements in road safety, Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) remain a vulnerable group with disproportionately high crash rates. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of PTW crashes in six European countries, with a case study of Loss of Control in Curves (LoCC), to address the gap between crash causation and prevention. By examining crash causation factors and their linkage to prevention strategies, the study illustrates various approaches for connecting causes and countermeasures. These approaches, which are applicable to different crash scenarios, include looking forward in the crash causation chains, looking backward, looking at only the last cause (critical events), or the first cause, or following a systemic approach. The research introduces a set of guidelines following the safe system approach, aiming to enhance the understanding of crash prevention among policymakers. The systemic approach to countermeasures, bridges the shortcomings of traditional crash causation studies that may exhibit bias or a narrow focus on "root causes". The proposed approach emphasizes the need for a comprehensive view of crash scenarios (i.e., considering the entire crash causation chain or multiple causation chains) and ensuring that preventive measures address the full spectrum of the system. It also takes in to account external factors such as cost, benefits, and politics, leading to improved road safety outcomes. The study findings are significant for researchers, since it is a step forward in in-depth crash causation studies, as well as road practitioners and policymakers, in providing a strategic framework for more effective and efficient road safety interventions.

Temporal Instability of Motorcycle Crash Fatalities on Local Roadways: A Random Parameters Approach with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances

Motorcycle accidents can impede sustainable development due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle riders, particularly in developing countries. Although there has been extensive research conducted on motorcycle accidents on highways, there is a limited understanding of the factors contributing to accidents involving the most commonly used motorcycles on local roads. This study aimed to identify the root causes of fatal motorcycle accidents on local roads. The contributing factors consist of four groups: rider characteristics, maneuvers prior to the crash, temporal and environmental characteristics, and road characteristics. The study employed random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances while also incorporating the temporal instability principle. The results revealed that the data related to motorcycle accidents on local roads between 2018 and 2020 exhibited temporal variation. Numerous variables were discovered to influence the means and variances of the unobserved factors that were identified as random parameters. Male riders, riders over 50 years old, foreign riders, and accidents that occurred at night with inadequate lighting were identified as the primary factors that increased the risk of fatalities. This paper presents a clear policy recommendation aimed at organizations and identifies the relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Land Transport, traffic police, local government organizations, and academic groups.

Exploring factors affecting the injury severity of freeway tunnel crashes: A random parameters approach with heterogeneity in means and variances

Generally, freeway tunnels are built to overcome the complex driving environments in mountainous terrains. However, crashes in these tunnels can be more severe than those on the open road sections due to their closed driving environment. Despite the higher crash severity, very few studies have attempted to investigate the severity of injuries in freeway tunnel crashes. Also, the existing studies on the injury severity analysis of tunnels did not fully consider the unobserved heterogeneity and its interactive effects. To address these issues, the present study first collected a comprehensive dataset containing five-year of police-reported tunnel crashes from Hunan province, China. A random parameters model with heterogeneity in means and variances was then developed to explore the influence of different variables related to the environment, drivers, crashes, vehicles, and tunnels. The study observed that the presence of curves and speeding indicators produce random parameters with heterogeneity in means and variances for freeway tunnels, which is influenced by the young drivers and outside exit zone variables. Also, the results reveal that factors, including weekdays, daytime, speeding, fatigue driving, rear-end collisions, collisions with fixtures, large passenger vehicles, and downgrades increase, while rain reduces the probability of severe injury outcomes in freeway tunnel crashes. More importantly, considering the unique tunnel driving environment, the summer, young drivers, novice drivers, presence of curves, and different tunnel sections (access, entrance, and outside exit zones) also significantly affect the risk of severe injury outcomes. Finally, the study's findings could be used as a basis for developing plans and technologies to minimize the severity of crash injuries in freeway tunnels.

Motorcyclist injury severity analysis: a comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and random parameter model with heterogeneity in means and variances

In Thailand, the motorcyclist mortality rate is steadily on the rise and remains a serious concern for highway administrators and burden on both economic and local people. Using motorcycle-crash data in Thailand from 2016 to 2019, this study empirically employed and compared the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model and random parameters binary probit model with heterogeneity in means and variances (RPBPHM) to explore the effects of a wide range of associated risk characteristics on the severity outcomes of the motorcyclist. Study results revealed that probabilities of injury or fatal crash increase for crashes that involve male riders, riding with pillion, speeding, improper overtaking, riders under influence of alcohol, fatigue riders, undivided road and so on. The probability of non-injury crash increases for crashes on main or frontage traffic lane, four-lane road, concrete road, during rain, involving collision with other motorcycles, rear-end crashes, sideswipe crashes, single-motorcycle crashes and crashes within urban areas. The RPBPHM models were found to outperform the ANN model (quadratic support vector machine) in all performance metrics. The findings could potentially assist policymaker, safety professionals, practitioners, trainers, government agencies or highway designers in future planning and serve as guidance for mitigation policies directed at safety improvement for motorcyclists.

Exploring the Determinants of School Bus Crash Severity

Although the school bus is considered a safe form of transportation, school bus crashes are a major safety concern. School bus crashes are a result of driver error of either the at-fault school bus or another at-fault vehicle (where the school bus is not at fault). To examine the risk factors associated with school bus related crashes and crash outcomes, this study segments and develops two binary logit models for each school bus crash type. A total of 1702 school bus related crashes recorded between 2009 and 2016 were used to estimate the model. According to the model results, sideswipe collisions were less likely to result in injury outcomes for at-fault school buses than rear-end and side-impact collisions. Speeding, driving impaired or under the influence, and negotiating a curve all have significant positive associations with injury outcomes in not-at-fault school bus crashes. This study’s practical implications include enforcing the school bus safe driving guidelines, training programs for school bus drivers that include elements of nonroutine trips, training for crossing guards, and awareness programs for drivers of other vehicles to instill safe driving practices around school buses.

Toward better measurement of traffic injuries - Comparison of anatomical injury measures in predicting the clinical outcomes in motorcycle crashes

INTRODUCTION

Little evidence exists in the literature regarding the discrimination power of better anatomical injury measures in differentiating clinical outcomes in motorcycle crashes. Furthermore, multiple injuries to different body parts of the rider are seldom analyzed. This study focuses on comparing anatomical injury measures such as the injury severity score (ISS) and the new injury severity score (NISS) in capturing injuries of multiple injured riders and examining the discriminatory capabilities of the ISS and NISS in predicting clinical outcomes post motorcycle crash.

METHODS

The study harnessed unique and comprehensive injury data on 322 riders from the US DOT Federal Highway Administration's Motorcycle Crash Causation Study (MCCS). Detailed exploratory analysis is performed and discrete/ordered statistical models are estimated for three clinical outcomes: mortality risk, trauma risk, and trauma status.

RESULTS

Around 9% of the riders died and 45% of the riders had injuries. Around 36% of the riders were hospitalized, disabled, or institutionalized. While a very strong dependence was found between ISS and NISS, ISS underestimated injuries sustained by riders. Statistical models for mortality risk revealed that a unit increase in the ISS and NISS was correlated with a 1.18 and 1.17 times increase in the odds of mortality, respectively. Moreover, a unit increase in ISS and NISS values was correlated with a higher trauma risk by 1.48 and 1.36 times, respectively. Our analysis reveals that the probability of a rider being hospitalized or disabled/institutionalized increases with an increase in the NISS. Conclusions and practical applications: The NISS exhibits significantly better calibration and discriminatory ability in differentiating survivors and non-survivors and in predicting trauma status - underscoring the importance of accounting for microscopic body-part-level injury data in motorcycle crashes. We consider that compared with the KABCO scale, the ISS and NISS are more nuanced scores that can better measure the overall injury intensity and can lead to more targeted countermeasures.

Empirical comparison of the effects of urban and rural crashes on motorcyclist injury severities: A correlated random parameters ordered probit approach with heterogeneity in means

In Thailand in 2016, more than 70% of all deaths due to road accidents were motorcyclist deaths. This study uses a correlated random parameters ordered probit model with heterogeneity in means (CRPOPHM) to obtain insight into differences in the significant factors determining the severity of motorcyclist injury between motorcycle crashes in urban and rural roadways, using data on motorcycle crashes in Thailand from 2016 to 2019. Using a rating system for injury severity level from minor injury to severe injury and to fatal injury, a wide range of potential risk factors are considered, including rider characteristics and actions, roadway characteristics, environmental and temporal characteristics, and crash characteristics. The findings indicate that, although some factors are significant in both urban and rural models, factors such as male rider, illegally overtaking, drowsiness, four-lane or wider highway, flush or depressed median, road on slope, weekend, nighttime with light, crash with van or minibus, and rear-ending or sideswiping crash, are significant only in the rural model, whereas the factors barrier median, occurring between 18:00 and 23:59, and striking a passenger car are statistically significant in only the urban model. These findings further suggests that difference in effect of unobserved characteristics could be seen in different crash locations, and splitting the model estimation between both location types could be done to develop effective guidance for policies to mitigate the severity of motorcyclist injuries. In addition, practical policy-related recommendations drawn from the results of the analysis are provided. With respect to methodology, the proposed CRPOPHM method outperforms lower-ordered models in terms of statistical fit and captures unobserved heterogeneity to a greater extent.

Analysis of Crash Frequency and Crash Severity in Thailand: Hierarchical Structure Models Approach

Currently, research on the development of crash models in terms of crash frequency on road segments and crash severity applies the principles of spatial analysis and heterogeneity due to the methods’ suitability compared with traditional models. This study focuses on crash severity and frequency in Thailand. Moreover, this study aims to understand crash frequency and fatality. The result of the intra-class correlation coefficient found that the spatial approach should analyze the data. The crash frequency model’s best fit is a spatial zero-inflated negative binomial model (SZINB). The results of the random parameters of SZINB are insignificant, except for the intercept. The crash frequency model’s significant variables include the length of the segment and average annual traffic volume for the fixed parameters. Conversely, the study finds that the best fit model of crash severity is a logistic regression with spatial correlations. The variances of random effect are significant such as the intersection, sideswipe crash, and head-on crash. Meanwhile, the fixed-effect variables significant to fatality risk include motorcycles, gender, non-use of safety equipment, and nighttime collision. The paper proposes a policy applicable to agencies responsible for driver training, law enforcement, and those involved in crash-reduction campaigns.

Evaluating sleep deprivation and time-of-day influences on crash avoidance maneuvers of young motorcyclists using a dynamic simulator

INTRODUCTION

Motorcyclists are particularly at risk of being injured when involved in a road traffic accident. To avoid such crashes, emergency braking and/or swerving maneuvers are frequently performed. The recent development of dynamic motorcycle simulators may allow to study the influences of various disturbance factors such as sleep deprivation (SD) and time-of-day (TOD) in safe conditions.

METHODS

Twelve young healthy males took part in 8 tests sessions at 06:00 h, 10:00 h, 14:00 h, 18:00 h after a night with or without sleep, in a random order. Participants had to perform an emergency braking and a swerving maneuver, both realized at 20 and 40 kph on a motorcycle dynamic simulator. For each task, the total distance/time necessary to perform the maneuver was recorded. Additional analysis was conducted on reaction and execution distance/time (considered as explanatory variables).

RESULTS

Both crash avoidance maneuvers (emergency braking and swerving) were affected by increased speed, resulting in longer time and distance at 40 kph than at 20 kph. Emergency braking was mainly influenced by sleep deprivation, which significantly increased the total distance necessary to stop at 40 kph (+1.57 m; + 20%; p < 0.01). These impaired performances can be linked to an increase in reaction time (+21%; p < 0.01). Considering the swerving maneuver, TOD and SD influences remained limited. TOD only influenced the reaction time/distance measured at 40 kph with poorer performance in the early morning (+30% at 06:00 h vs 18:00 h; p < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Our results confirm that crash avoidance capabilities of young motorcyclists were influenced by the lack of sleep, mainly because of increased reaction times. More complex tasks (swerving maneuver) remained mostly unchanged in this paradigm. Practical Applications: Prevention campaigns should focus on the dangers of motorcycling while sleepy. Motorcycling simulators can be used to sensitize safely with sleep deprivation and time-of-day influences.

A random parameter negative binomial model for signalized intersection accidents in Seoul, Korea

A variety of statistical models were generally considered to better understand the relationship between crash occurrences and diverse factors. However, most of statistical models adapted fixed parameters which cannot incorporate time variation or sement-specific effects. To relieve this problem, this study focuses on a traffic accident frequency model using a random parameter negative binomial approach. This method allows for the consideration of unobserved heterogeneity in accident data that current popular methods such as Poisson or Negative Binomial models cannot account for. A four-year (2007-2010) continuous panel of accident histories at 95 signalized intersections in Seoul, Korea, was used to estimate the random parameter negative binomial model with traffic volumes and various geometric characteristics at intersections. Results show that the presence of a left-turn exclusive lane on a major road, the existence and length of a median barrier, and the existence of a pedestrian island on a major road are random parameters, and an additional ten variables significantly affected the safety at the intersections as fixed parameters. The fixed parameters were associated with major and minor roadway heavy vehicle volume, exclusive turn lane presence on major and minor roadway, taxiway lane presence, median barrier presence, as well as the number of lanes on major and minor roadway. The insights from this study indicate the need for broader analysis of lane channelization, lane exclusion and lane geometry effects as potential random parameters in intersection accident propensities.

A spatiotemporal analysis of motorcyclist injury severity: Findings from 20 years of crash data from Pennsylvania

Motorcyclists face higher risks of severe injuries in crashes compared to motor vehicle drivers who are often protected by seatbelts and airbags during collisions. A report by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reveals that motorcyclists have 27 times the risk of fatality in traffic crashes as much as motor vehicle drivers. Previous studies have identified a list of risk factors associated with motorcyclist injury severity and generated valuable insights for countermeasures to protect motorcyclists in crashes. These studies have shown that wearing helmets and/or motorcycle-specific reflective clothing and boots, driving alcohol/drug-free, and obeying traffic regulations are good practices for safe motorcycling. However, these practices and other risk factors are likely to interact with local geographic, socio-economic, and cultural contexts, leading to diversified correlations with motorcyclist injury severity, which remains under-explored. Such correlations may exhibit variations across space and time. The objective of this study is to revisit the correlates of motorcyclist injury severity with a focus on the spatial and temporal variations of correlations between risk factors and injury severity. This study employed an integrated spatiotemporal analytical approach to mine comprehensive statewide 20 years' motorcycle-involved traffic crashes (N = 50,823) in Pennsylvania. Non-stationarity tests were performed to examine the significance of variations in spatially and temporally local correlations. The results show that most factors, such as helmet, engine size, vehicle age, pillion passenger, at-fault striking, and speeding, hold significant non-stationary relationships with motorcyclist injury severity. Furthermore, cluster analysis of estimations reveals the regional similarities of correlates, which may help practitioners develop regional motorcyclist safety countermeasures.

A taxonomy of driving errors and violations: Evidence from the naturalistic driving study

Driving errors and violations are identified as contributing factors in most crash events. To examine the role of human factors and improve crash investigations, a systematic taxonomy of driver errors and violations (TDEV) is developed. The TDEV classifies driver errors and violations based on their occurrence during the theoretically based perception-reaction process and analyzes their contributions in safety critical events. To empirically explore errors and violations, made by drivers of instrumented vehicles, in diverse built environments, this study harnesses unique and highly detailed pre-crash sensor data collected in the Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS), containing 673 crashes, 1,331 near-crashes and 7,589 baselines (no-event). Human factors are categorized into recognition errors, decision errors, performance errors, and errors due to the drivers' physical condition or their lack of contextual experience/familiarity, and intentional violations. In the NDS data, built environments (measured by roadway localities) are classified based on roadway functional classification and land uses, e.g., residential areas, school zones, and church zones. Based on the crash percentage to baseline percentage in a specific locality, interstates and open country/open residential (rural and semi-rural settings) may pose lower risks, while urban, business/industrial, and school zone locations showed higher crash risk. Human errors and violations by instrumented vehicle drivers contributed to 93% of the observed crashes, while roadway factors contributed to 17%, vehicle factors contributed in 1%, and 4% of crashes contained unknown factors. The most common human errors were recognition and decision errors, which occurred in 39% and 34% of crashes, respectively. These two error types occurred more frequently (each contributing to nearly 39% of crashes) in business or industrial land use environments (but not in dense urban localities). The findings of this study reveal continued prevalence of human factors in crashes. The distribution of driving errors and violations across different roadway environments can aid in the implementation of driver assistance systems and place-based interventions that can potentially reduce these driving errors and violations.

Injury severity analysis of pedestrian and bicyclist trespassing crashes at non-crossings: A hybrid predictive text analytics and heterogeneity-based statistical modeling approach

Non-motorists involved in rail-trespassing crashes are usually more vulnerable to receiving major or fatal injuries. Previous research has used traditional quantitative crash data for understanding factors contributing to injury outcomes of non-motorists in train involved collisions. However, usually overlooked crash narratives can provide useful and unique contextual crash-specific information regarding factors associated with injury outcomes. The main objective of this study is to harness the rapid advancements in more sophisticated qualitative analysis procedures for identifying thematic concepts in unstructured crash narrative data. A two-staged hybrid approach is proposed where text mining is applied first to extract valuable information from crash narratives followed by inclusion of the new variables derived from text mining in formulation of advanced statistical models for injury outcomes. By using ten-year (2006-2015) non-motorist non-crossing trespassing injury data obtained from the Federal Railroad Administration, statistical procedures and advanced machine learning text analytics are applied to extract unique information on contributory factors of trespassers' injury outcomes. The key concepts are systematically categorized into trespasser, injury, train, medical, and location related factors. A total of 13 unique variables are extracted from the thematic concepts that are not present in traditional tabular crash data. The analysis reveals a positive statistically significant association between presence of crash narrative and trespasser's injury outcome (coded as minor, major, and fatal injury). Compared to crashes with minor injuries, crashes involving major and fatal injuries are more likely to be reported with crash narratives. A crosstabulation of new variables derived from text mining with injury outcomes revealed that trespassers with confirmed suicide attempts, trespassers wearing headphones, or talking on cell phones are more likely to receive fatal injuries. Among other factors identified, trespassers under alcohol influence, trespasser hit by commuter train, and advance warnings by engineer are associated with more severe (major and fatal) trespasser injury outcomes. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and controlling for other factors, fixed and random parameter discrete outcome models are developed to understand the heterogeneous correlations between trespasser injury outcomes and the new crash specific explanatory variables derived from text mining - providing deeper insights. Practical implications and future research directions are discussed.

Assessing the explanatory and predictive performance of a random parameters count model with heterogeneity in means and variances

Random parameters model has been demonstrated to be an effective method to account for unobserved heterogeneity that commonly exists in highway crash data. However, the predefined single distribution for each random parameter may limit how the unobserved heterogeneity is captured. A more flexible approach is to develop a random parameters model with heterogeneity in means and variances by allowing the mean and variance of potential each random parameter to be an estimable function of explanatory variables. This burgeoning technique for modelling unobserved heterogeneity has been increasingly applied to various safety evaluation scenarios recently. However, the predictive performance of this emerging method, which determines the practicability of the model for a specific circumstance, has never been investigated as far as our knowledge. In addition, the explanatory power by including heterogeneous means and variances of random parameters need to be further investigated to confirm the potential merits of this method in crash data analysis. In this paper, a random parameters negative binomial with heterogeneity in means and variances (RPNBHMV) model, a standard random parameters negative binomial (RPNB) model and a traditional fixed parameters negative binomial (NB) model were estimated using the same dataset. The explanatory and predictive performance of the three models were thoroughly evaluated and compared. Results showed that: 1) the RPNB model fitted the data significantly better than the NB model, and the RPNBHMV model further improved the statistical fit of the RPNB model but the improvement was slight; 2) more insights into interactions of safety factors were inferred from the RPNBHMV model, which demonstrates the explanatory benefit of this model; 3) the RPNBHMV and RPNB models had both advantages (e.g., produced overall better prediction accuracy) and disadvantages (e.g., provided reduced prediction accuracy across the range of explanatory variables) when applied to in-sample observations (i.e., observations used to estimate the model); 4) the RPNBHMV and RPNB models might be less precise than the NB model when applied to out-of-sample observations. These findings indicate that the RPNBHMV model offers more insights and may be used for explanatory safety analysis for sites where reliable data can be collected. However, the simple NB model is more reliable - at least with the dataset used in this study - than its random parameters model counterparts for other sites where the data are unavailable or unreliable, which is a common safety evaluation scenario in practice.

A random parameter logistic model of fatigue-related motorcycle crash involvement in Hanoi, Vietnam

Since motorcycle taxi drivers often work long hours, fatigue would affect their riding abilities, impacting crash risks. However, there is limited understanding about motorcycle taxi drivers' fatigue-related crashes. This study investigates self-reported fatigue-related crashes among motorcycle taxi drivers in Hanoi, Vietnam. Results from a survey showed that approximately 16% of the motorcycle taxi drivers reported fatigue-related crash involvement. It was also found that nearly 37% of all crashes reported by motorcycle taxi drivers were related to fatigue while riding a motorcycle taxi. Results of the heterogeneity-in-means random parameter logistic model suggested that working fulltime, more delivery trips, and overweight conditions were associated with increased likelihoods of fatigue-related crash involvement. Hybrid taxi drivers, who operate as either traditional or ride-hailing taxi drivers at different times, and most ride-hailing taxi drivers had a reduced likelihood of fatigue-related crash involvement when compared to traditional taxi drivers. Overall, this study has revealed a significant issue of fatigue-related crashes among motorcycle taxi drivers. Immediate interventions via publicity or educational campaigns should be considered by authorities to address this important issue. Ride-hailing companies should contribute by sending warnings of excessive riding hours to ride-hailing taxi drivers.

Safety effects of traffic lane and shoulder widths on two-lane undivided rural roads: A matched case-control study from Norway

This study estimates the effects of lane and shoulder widths on occurrence of head-on and single-vehicle accidents on rural two-lane undivided roads in Norway while considering the differences between winter and non-winter accidents and their severity levels. A matched case-control method was applied to calculate the odds ratios for lane and shoulder width categories, while controlling for the effects of AADT and adjusting for the effects of region, speed limit, segment length, share of long vehicles in AADT and horizontal alignment. The study used a sample of 71,999 roadway segments identified in GIS and 1886 related accidents recorded by the police in five-year period. The results suggest that it is relevant to consider winter and non-winter accidents as well as severe and slight accidents separately when studying the effects of lane and shoulder widths on the occurrence of head-on and single-vehicle accidents. When examining lane and shoulder widths for all related accidents, the lane widths 1.50-2.50 m and shoulder widths 0.50-0.75 m were relatively safer than other categories on Norwegian two-lane rural undivided roads.

Exploring the who, what, when, where, and why of automated vehicle disengagements

Automated vehicles are emerging on the transportation networks as manufacturers test their automated driving system (ADS) capabilities in complex real-world environments in testing operations like California's Autonomous Vehicle Tester Program. A more comprehensive understanding of the ADS safety performances can be established through the California Department of Motor Vehicle disengagement and crash reports. This study comprehensively examines the safety performances (159,840 disengagements, 124 crashes, and 3,669,472 automated vehicle miles traveled by the manufacturers) documented since the inauguration of the testing program. The reported disengagements were categorized as control discrepancy, environmental conditions and other road users, hardware and software discrepancy, perception discrepancy, planning discrepancy, and operator takeover. An applicable subset of disengagements was then used to identify and quantify the 5 W's of these safety-critical events: who (disengagement initiator), when (the maturity of the ADS), where (location of disengagement), and what/why (the facts causing the disengagement). The disengagement initiator, whether the ADS or human operator, is linked with contributing factors, such as the location, disengagement cause, and ADS testing maturity through a random parameter binary logit model that captured unobserved heterogeneity. Results reveal that compared to freeways and interstates, the ADS has a lower likelihood of initiating the disengagement on streets and roads compared to the human operator. Likewise, software and hardware, and planning discrepancies are associated with the ADS initiating the disengagement. As the ADS testing maturity advances in months, the probability of the disengagement being initiated by the ADS marginally increases when compared to human-initiated. Overall, the study contributes by understanding the factors associated with disengagements and exploring their implications for automated systems.

Exploratory analysis of automated vehicle crashes in California: A text analytics & hierarchical Bayesian heterogeneity-based approach

Automated vehicles (AVs) represent an opportunity to reduce crash frequency by eliminating driver error, as safety studies reveal human error contributes to the majority of crashes. To provide insights into the contributing factors of AV crashes, this study created a unique database from the California Department of Motor Vehicles 124 manufacturer-reported Traffic Collision Reports and was linked with detailed data on roadway and built-environment attributes. A novel text analysis was first conducted to extract useful information from crash report narratives. Of the crashes that could be geocoded (N = 113), results indicate the most frequent AV crash type was rear-end collisions (61.1%; N = 69) and 13.3% (N = 15) were injury crashes. These noteworthy outcomes and a small sample size motivated us to rigorously analyze rear-end and injury crashes in a Full Bayesian empirical setup. Owing to the potential issue of unobserved heterogeneity, hierarchical-Bayes fixed and random parameter logit models are estimated. Results reveal that when the automated driving system is engaged and remains engaged, the likelihood of an AV-involved rear-end crash is substantially higher compared to a conventionally-driven AV or when the driver disengages the automated driving system prior to a crash. Given the AV-involved crashes, the likelihood of an AV-involved rear-end crash was significantly higher in mixed land-use settings compared to other land-use types, and was significantly lower near public/private schools. Correlations of other roadway attributes and environmental factors with AV-involved rear-end and injury crash propensities are discussed. This study aids in understanding the interactions of AVs and human-driven conventional vehicles in complex urban environments.

Examining correlations between motorcyclist's conspicuity, apparel related factors and injury severity score: Evidence from new motorcycle crash causation study

Motorcyclists are vulnerable road users at a particularly high risk of serious injury or death when involved in a crash. In order to evaluate key risk factors in motorcycle crashes, this study quantifies how different "policy-sensitive" factors correlate with injury severity, while controlling for rider and crash specific factors as well as other observed/unobserved factors. The study analyzes data from 321 motorcycle injury crashes from a comprehensive US DOT FHWA's Motorcycle Crash Causation Study (MCCS). These were all non-fatal injury crashes that are representative of the vast majority (82%) of motorcycle crashes. An anatomical injury severity scoring system, termed as Injury Severity Score (ISS), is analyzed providing an overall score by accounting for the possibility of multiple injuries to different body parts of a rider. An ISS ranges from 1 to 75, averaging at 10.32 for this sample (above 9 is considered serious injury), with a spike at 1 (very minor injury). Preliminary cross-tabulation analysis mapped ISS to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) injury classification and examined the strength of associations between the two. While the study finds a strong correlation between AIS and ISS classification (Kendall's tau of 0.911), significant contrasts are observed in that, when compared to ISS, AIS tends to underestimate the severity of an injury sustained by a rider. For modeling, fixed and random parameter Tobit modeling frameworks were used in a corner-solution setting to account for the left-tail spike in the distribution of ISS and to account for unobserved heterogeneity. The developed random parameters Tobit framework additionally accounts for the interactive effects of key risk factors, allowing for possible correlations among random parameters. A correlated random parameter Tobit model significantly out-performed the uncorrelated random parameter Tobit and fixed parameter Tobit models. While controlling for various other factors, we found that motorcycle-specific shoes and retroreflective upper body clothing correlate with lower ISS on-average by 5.94 and 1.88 units respectively. Riders with only partial helmet coverage on-average sustained more severe injuries, whereas, riders with acceptable helmet fit had lower ISS Methodologically, not only do the individual effects of several key risk factors vary significantly across observations in the form of random parameters, but the interactions between unobserved factors characterizing random parameters significantly influence the injury severity score as well. The implications of the findings are discussed.

How instantaneous driving behavior contributes to crashes at intersections: Extracting useful information from connected vehicle message data

Connected and automated vehicles have enabled researchers to use big data for development of new metrics that can enhance transportation safety. Emergence of such a big data coupled with computational power of modern computers have enabled us to obtain deeper understanding of instantaneous driving behavior by applying the concept of "driving volatility" to quantify variations in driving behavior. This paper brings in a methodology to quantify variations in vehicular movements utilizing longitudinal and lateral volatilities and proactively studies the impact of instantaneous driving behavior on type of crashes at intersections. More than 125 million Basic Safety Message data transmitted between more than 2800 connected vehicles were analyzed and integrated with historical crash and road inventory data at 167 intersections in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. Given that driving volatility represents the vehicular movement and control, it is expected that erratic longitudinal/lateral movements increase the risk of crash. In order to capture variations in vehicle control and movement, we quantified and used 30 measures of driving volatility by using speed, longitudinal and lateral acceleration, and yaw-rate. Rigorous statistical models including fixed parameter, random parameter, and geographically weighted Poisson regressions were developed. The results revealed that controlling for intersection geometry and traffic exposure, and accounting unobserved factors, variations in longitudinal control of the vehicle (longitudinal volatility) are highly correlated with the frequency of rear-end crashes. Intersections with high variations in longitudinal movement are prone to have higher rear-end crash rate. Referring to sideswipe and angle crashes, along with speed and longitudinal volatility, lateral volatility is substantially correlated with the frequency of crashes. When it comes to head-on crashes, speed, longitudinal and lateral acceleration volatilities are highly associated with the frequency of crashes. Intersections with high lateral volatility have higher risk of head-on collisions due to the risk of deviation from the centerline leading to head-on crash. The developed methodology and volatility measures can be used to proactively identify hotspot intersections where the frequency of crashes is low, but the longitudinal/lateral driving volatility is high. The reason that drivers exhibit higher levels of driving volatility when passing these intersections can be analyzed to come up with potential countermeasures that could reduce volatility and, consequently, crash risk.

Powered two-wheeler crash scenario development

Powered two wheeler (PTW) riders are a group of vulnerable road users that are overrepresented compared to other road user groups with regards to crash injury outcomes. The understanding of the dynamics that occur before a crash benefits in providing suitable countermeasures for said crashes. A clearer interpretation of which factors interact to cause collisions allows an understanding of the mechanisms that produce higher risk in specific situations in the roadway. Real world in-depth crash data provides detailed data which includes human, vehicular and environmental factors collected on site for crash analysis purposes. This study used macroscopic on-scene crash data collected in the UK between the years 2000-2010 as part of the "Road Accident In-depth Study" to analyse the factors that were prevalent in 428 powered two-wheeler crashes. A descriptive analysis and latent class cluster analysis was performed to identify the interaction between different crash factors and develop PTW scenarios based on this analysis. The PTW rider was identified as the prime contributor in 36% of the multiple vehicle crashes. Results identified seven specific scenarios, the main types of which identified two particular 'looked but failed to see' crashes and two types of single vehicle PTW crashes. In cases where the PTW lost control diagnosis failures were more common, for road users other than the PTW rider detection issues were of particular relevance.