Assessing the explanatory and predictive performance of a random parameters count model with heterogeneity in means and variances

Investigating built environment and traffic flow impact on crash frequency in urban road networks

While numerous studies have examined the factors that influence crash occurrence, there remains a gap in understanding the intricate relationship between built environment, traffic flow, and crash occurrences across different spatial units. This study explores how built environment attributes, and dynamic traffic flow characteristics affect crash frequency by focusing on proposed traffic density-based zones (TDZs). Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from Greater Melbourne, Australia, this research emphasizes on the dynamic traffic flow variables and insights from the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram model, considering parameters such as shockwave velocity and congestion index. The association between the potential influencing factors and crash frequency is examined using a random parameter negative binomial regression model. Results indicate that the data segmentation based on TDZs is instrumental in establishing a more refined crash model compared to traditional planning-based zones, as demonstrated by improved goodness-of-fit measures. Factors including density (e.g., employment density), network design (e.g., road density and highway density), land use diversity (e.g., job-housing balance and land use mixture), and public transit accessibility (e.g., bus route density) are significantly associated with crash occurrence. Furthermore, the unobserved heterogeneity effects of the shockwave velocity and congestion index on crashes are revealed. The study highlights the significance of incorporating dynamic traffic flow variables in understanding crash frequency variations across different spatial units. These findings can inform optimal real-time traffic monitoring, environmental design, and road safety management strategies to mitigate crash risks.

Efficient and robust estimation of single-vehicle crash severity: A mixed logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances

This study delves into the factors that contribute to the severity of single-vehicle crashes, focusing on enhancing both computational speed and model robustness. Utilizing a mixed logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances, we offer a comprehensive understanding of the complexities surrounding crash severity. The analysis is grounded in a dataset of 39,788 crash records from the UK's STATS19 database, which includes variables such as road type, speed limits, and lighting conditions. A comparative evaluation of estimation methods, including pseudo-random, Halton, and scrambled and randomized Halton sequences, demonstrates the superior performance of the latter. Specifically, our estimation approach excels in goodness-of-fit, as measured by ρ2, and in minimizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), all while optimizing computational resources like run time and memory usage. This strategic efficiency enables more thorough and credible analyses, rendering our model a robust tool for understanding crash severity. Policymakers and researchers will find this study valuable for crafting data-driven interventions aimed at reducing road crash severity.

Comparison of corridor-level fatal and injury crash models with site-level models for network screening purposes on Florida urban and suburban divided arterials

Objective: Develop corridor-level network screening models to identify high-risk corridors where safety improvements could be implemented to reduce fatal and injury (FI) crashes. Methods: A novel corridor definition focused on context classification and lane count was developed and applied to urban and suburban four-lane divided arterial roadways in Florida. Negative binomial regression models were developed for multi- and single-vehicle crashes using 80% of the corridors (training set). Crash frequency predictions were obtained from the developed corridor models and similar site-level models from the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) models for the remaining 20% of the corridors (testing set). Results from all models were adjusted using the empirical Bayes (EB) method. Results: A total of 130 corridors were identified across seven counties. These corridors contained approximately 349 km (217 miles) of roadway and experienced 11,437 multi-vehicle and 746 single-vehicle crashes that resulted in fatalities or injuries from 2017 to 2021. After applying the HSM site-level models and the developed corridor-level models to the testing set (both with and without EB adjustments), the corridor-level models with EB adjustments were the most accurate for corridor crash prediction. Applying the corridor-level models with EB adjustments to the testing set gave a predicted value of 386.44 crashes/year, which was the closest to the observed crash frequency of 383.20 crashes/year. From the corridor-level models, a 3.48-km (2.16-mile) high-risk corridor in Miami-Dade County was identified and analyzed site-by-site using the HSM methodology to identify specific sites within the corridor where safety improvements could provide the most FI crash reductions. Conclusions: The corridor-level models were more accurate and statistically reliable than similar HSM models while being less data intensive. They also only required corridor-level data rather than data for each intersection and segment. By using readily available data, the methods in this paper can be easily replicated by agencies to develop their own network screening corridor-level models and expedite the identification of corridors in need of safety improvements to reduce FI crashes. Existing site-level network screening methods can be used to supplement the developed corridor-level methodology by identifying high-risk sites within identified high-risk corridors.

Localizing safety performance functions for two-way STOP-controlled (TWST) three-leg intersections on rural two-lane two-way (TLTW) roadways in Alabama: A geospatial modeling approach with clustering analysis

Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) can be used to predict the number of crashes for highway facilities by site characteristics, including traffic exposures and other specific site factors. The traditional approach to developing SPFs relies on factors that are observed in the data and has an unstated assumption that the relationships between safety performance and observed factors are stationary. However, there might be factors that are not captured by the data but also have significant impacts on roadway safety performance. These factors can lead to significant unobserved heterogeneity in safety performance at different sites. Failure to capture such unobserved heterogeneity in developing SPFs may result in biases and decrease the predictive accuracy. Given the interactions between highway traffic and roadway environments, the unobserved heterogeneity is likely related to the geographic space of the highway network. This study employs a spatial modeling approach, namely Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR), to incorporate spatial heterogeneity into SPF model estimation. The GWNBR model can generate a local SPF for every site instead of a global SPF for one entire jurisdiction (e.g., a state) from the traditional approach. Local SPFs (or l-SPFs) are high-resolution and may be difficult for practitioners to use. To support the implementation of l-SPFs, this study proposes a method to aggregate l-SPFs to various geographic levels. This study first uses the 2014-2018 geo-referenced crash data from Alabama to develop l-SPFs for two-way STOP-controlled (TWST) three-leg intersections on rural two-lane two-way (TLTW) roadways in the state. The results show that l-SPFs vary substantially across Alabama. For example, the coefficients of traffic volume (AADT) on major roads range from 0.126 to 1.203 across different areas of the state. Then, an aggregation method based on K-means clustering is demonstrated to aggregate l-SPFs to various geographic levels of interest. The l-SPFs and their aggregation provide geographic flexibility in developing countermeasures and allocating funds to improve traffic safety considering local conditions.

A simulation-based empirical bayes approach: Incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in the before-after evaluation of engineering treatments

The Empirical Bayes approach for before-after evaluation methodology utilizing the negative binomial model does not account well for unobserved heterogeneity. Building on the Empirical Bayes approach, the objective of this study was to propose a framework to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity in before-after countermeasure evaluation. In particular, this study has proposed a simulation-based Empirical Bayes approach by applying the panel random parameters negative binomial model with parameterized overdispersion (PRNB-PO) to evaluate the effectiveness of engineering treatments. The proposed framework has been tested for the wide centerline treatment (WCLT) on rural two-lane two-way highways in Australia. The empirical analysis included 511 km of WCLT treated highways in a before-after evaluation within a time period of 2010 - 2018 and 430 km of reference sites in Queensland, Australia. The PRNB-PO models outperformed the traditional negative binomial models in terms of goodness-of-fit and prediction performance for total injury crashes, and fatal and serious injury (FSI) crashes. The simulation-based Empirical Bayes approach using the PRNB-PO model resulted in more precise estimates of crash modification factors than the standard Empirical Bayes approach. The WCLT is found to result in significant reductions in total injury crashes by 28.21% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 22.92 - 33.50%), FSI crashes by 13.90% (95% CI = 6.99 - 20.81%), and head-on crashes by 25.45% (95% CI = 14.87 - 36.03%). Overall, WCLT is an effective engineering treatment and should be considered a low-cost countermeasure on rural two-lane two-way highways.

A resampling approach to disaggregate analysis of bus-involved crashes using panel data with excessive zeros

Public bus constitutes more than 70% of the overall road-based public transport patronage in Hong Kong, and its crash involvement rate has been the highest among all public transport modes. Though previous studies had identified explanatory factors that affect the crash risk of buses, use of considerably imbalanced crash data with excessive zero observations could lead to inaccurate parameter estimation. This study aims to resolve the excess zero problem of disaggregate analysis of bus-involved crashes based on synthetic data using a Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique for panel data (SMOTE-P). Dataset comprising crash, traffic, and road inventory data of 88 road segments in Hong Kong during the period from 2014 to 2017 is used. To assess the data balancing performance, other common data generation approaches such as Random Under-sampling of the Majority Class (RUMC) technique, Cluster-Based Under-Sampling (CBUS), and mixed resampling, are also considered. Random effect Poisson (REP) models based on synthetic data and random effect zero-inflated Poisson (REZIP) model based on original data are estimated. Results indicate that REP model based on synthetic data using SMOTE-P outperforms REZIP model based on original data and REP models based on synthetic data using RUMC, CBUS and mixed approaches, in terms of statistical fit, prediction error, and explanatory factors identified. Results of model estimation based on SMOTE-P suggest that factors including morning peak, evening peak, hourly traffic flow, average lane width, road length, bus stop density, percentage of bus in the traffic stream, and presence of bus priority lane all affect the bus-involved crash frequency. More importantly, this study provides a feasible solution for disaggregate crash analysis with imbalanced panel data.

Influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the frequency of vehicle crashes caused by driver inattention: A comparison between rural roads and urban roads

INTRODUCTION

With prevalent and increased attention to driver inattention (DI) behavior, this research provides a comprehensive investigation of the influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the DI-related vehicle crash frequency per year. Specifically, a comparative analysis between DI-related crash frequency in rural road segments and urban road segments is conducted.

METHOD

Utilizing DI-related crash data collected from North Carolina for the period 2013-2017, three types of models: (1) Poisson/negative binomial (NB) model, (2) Poisson hurdle (HP) model/negative binomial hurdle (HNB) model, and (3) random intercepts Poisson hurdle (RIHP) model/random intercepts negative binomial hurdle (RIHNB) model, are applied to handle excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the dataset.

RESULTS

The results show that RIHP and RIHNB models distinctly outperform other models in terms of goodness-of-fit. The presence of commercial areas is found to increase the probability and frequency of DI-related crashes in both rural and urban regions. Roadway characteristics (such as non-freeways, segments with multiple lanes, and traffic signals) are positively associated with increased DI-related crash counts, whereas state-secondary routes and speed limits (higher than 35 mph) are associated with decreased DI-related crash counts in rural and urban regions. Besides, horizontal curved and longitudinal bottomed segments and segments with double yellow lines/no passing zones are likely to have fewer DI-related crashes in urban areas. Medians in rural road segments are found to be effective to reduce DI-related crashes. Practical Applications: These findings provide a valuable understanding of the DI-related crash frequency for transportation agencies to propose effective countermeasures and safety treatments (e.g., dispatching more police enforcement or surveillance cameras in commercial areas, and setting more medians in rural roads) to mitigate the negative consequences of DI behavior.

Empirical comparison of the effects of urban and rural crashes on motorcyclist injury severities: A correlated random parameters ordered probit approach with heterogeneity in means

In Thailand in 2016, more than 70% of all deaths due to road accidents were motorcyclist deaths. This study uses a correlated random parameters ordered probit model with heterogeneity in means (CRPOPHM) to obtain insight into differences in the significant factors determining the severity of motorcyclist injury between motorcycle crashes in urban and rural roadways, using data on motorcycle crashes in Thailand from 2016 to 2019. Using a rating system for injury severity level from minor injury to severe injury and to fatal injury, a wide range of potential risk factors are considered, including rider characteristics and actions, roadway characteristics, environmental and temporal characteristics, and crash characteristics. The findings indicate that, although some factors are significant in both urban and rural models, factors such as male rider, illegally overtaking, drowsiness, four-lane or wider highway, flush or depressed median, road on slope, weekend, nighttime with light, crash with van or minibus, and rear-ending or sideswiping crash, are significant only in the rural model, whereas the factors barrier median, occurring between 18:00 and 23:59, and striking a passenger car are statistically significant in only the urban model. These findings further suggests that difference in effect of unobserved characteristics could be seen in different crash locations, and splitting the model estimation between both location types could be done to develop effective guidance for policies to mitigate the severity of motorcyclist injuries. In addition, practical policy-related recommendations drawn from the results of the analysis are provided. With respect to methodology, the proposed CRPOPHM method outperforms lower-ordered models in terms of statistical fit and captures unobserved heterogeneity to a greater extent.

A random parameters with heterogeneity in means and Lindley approach to analyze crash data with excessive zeros: A case study of head-on heavy vehicle crashes in Queensland

This study performed statistical analyses to identify likely crash contributing factors for Head-on Fatal and Serious Injury (FSI) collisions involving heavy vehicles (HVs) on the Queensland state road network. Head-on HV collisions are associated with the largest number of fatalities compared to other crash types in Queensland. However, there is limited relevant literature regarding this type of crashes. Recent studies on road safety research have focused on variants of random parameters models to capture unobserved heterogeneity that may influence the occurrence of crashes. Among such models, random parameters with heterogeneity in means has recently provided better results and has become popular. However, this study illustrates a potential limitation regarding the use of these models without explicitly factoring for excessive zero crash observations. To address this potential limitation, a random parameters with heterogeneity in means and a Lindley distribution is introduced in this study to factor for the unobserved heterogeneity using additional variables as well as site-specific variation from excessive zero crash observations. Results showed that a Poisson model with random parameters and heterogeneity in means using a Lindley distribution outperformed multiple alternative state-of-the-art specifications in terms of fit as well as overall prediction ability. The analyses using the proposed modelling approach revealed factors likely to affect the likelihood of Head-on FSI crashes involving HVs in Queensland including volume, segment length, period of analysis, terrain type being rolling, curve (moderate/sharp/very sharp) longer than 50% of the corresponding segment length, rural single carriageway with high (>=100 kph) and medium (>=50 and <100 kph) speed limits, and urban single carriageway. Unobserved heterogeneity regarding the parameter for road curvature was explained using rolling terrain type as an explanatory variable. This study has explained variation in the means of random parameters for a road attribute using the effect of a geometric variable, in which several stakeholders are primarily interested.

Determinants and Prediction of Injury Severities in Multi-Vehicle-Involved Crashes

Multi-vehicle (MV) crashes, which can lead to great damages to society, have always been a serious issue for traffic safety. A further understanding of crash severity can help transportation engineers identify the critical reasons and find effective countermeasures to improve transportation safety. However, studies involving methods of machine learning to predict the possibility of injury-severity of MV crashes are rarely seen. Besides that, previous studies have rarely taken temporal stability into consideration in MV crashes. To bridge these knowledge gaps, two kinds of models: random parameters logit model (RPL), with heterogeneities in the means and variances, and Random Forest (RF) were employed in this research to identify the critical contributing factors and to predict the possibility of MV injury-severity. Three-year (2016–2018) MV data from Washington, United States, extracted from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS), were applied for crash injury-severity analysis. In addition, a series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted for temporal stability between different years. Four indicators were employed to measure the prediction performance of the selected models, and four categories of crash-related characteristics were specifically investigated based on the RPL model. The results showed that the machine learning-based models performed better than the statistical models did when taking the overall accuracy as an evaluation indicator. However, the statistical models had a better prediction performance than the machine learning models had considering crash costs. Temporal instabilities were present between 2016 and 2017 MV data. The effect of significant factors was elaborated based on the RPL model with heterogeneities in the means and variances.

Analysing the main and interaction effects of commercial vehicle mix and roadway attributes on crash rates using a Bayesian random-parameter Tobit model

In previous research, the effects of commercial vehicle proportions (CVP) on overall crash propensity have been found to be significant, but the results have been varied in terms of the effect direction. In addition, the mediating or moderating effects of roadway attributes on the CVP-vs-safety relationships, have not been investigated. In addressing this gap in the literature, this study integrates databases on crashes, traffic, and inventory for Hong Kong road segments spanning 2014-2017. The classes of commercial vehicles considered are public buses, taxi, and light-, medium- and heavy-goods vehicles. Random-parameter Tobit models were estimated using the crash rates. The results suggest that the CVP of each class show credible effects on the crash rates, for the various crash severity levels. The results also suggest that the interaction between CVP and roadway attributes is credible enough to mediate the effect of CVP on crash rates, and the magnitude and direction of such mediation varies across the vehicle classes, crash severity levels, and roadway attribute type in four ways. First, the increasing effect of taxi proportion on slight-injury crash rate is magnified at road segments with high intersection density. Second, the increasing effect of light-goods vehicle proportion on slight-injury crash rate is magnified at road segments with on-street parking. Third, the association between the medium- and heavy-goods vehicle proportion and killed/severe injury (KSI) crash rate, is moderated by the roadway width (number of traffic lanes). Finally, a higher proportion of medium- and heavy-goods vehicles generally contributes to increased KSI crash rate at road segments with high intersection density. Overall, the findings of this research are expected not only to help guide commercial vehicle enforcement strategy, licensing policy, and lane control measures, but also to review existing urban roadway designs to enhance safety.