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Torres C, Lum C, Puac-Polanco P, Stotts G, Shamy MCF, Blacquiere D, Lun R, Dave P, Bharatha A, Menon BK, Thornhill R, Momoli F, Dowlatshahi D. Differentiating Carotid Free-Floating Thrombus From Atheromatous Plaque Using Intraluminal Filling Defect Length on CTA: A Validation Study. Neurology 2021; 97:e785-e793. [PMID: 34426550 DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000012368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To validate a previously proposed filling defect length threshold of >3.8 mm on CT angiography (CTA) to discriminate between free-floating thrombus (FFT) and plaque of atheroma. METHODS This was a prospective multicenter observational study of 100 participants presenting with TIA/stroke symptoms and a carotid intraluminal filling defect on initial CTA. Follow-up CTA was obtained within 1 week and at weeks 2 and 4 if the intraluminal filling defect was unchanged in length. Resolution or decreased length was diagnostic of FFT, whereas its static appearance after 4 weeks was indicative of plaque. Diagnostic accuracy of FFT length was assessed by receiver operating characteristic analysis. RESULTS Ninety-five participants (mean [SD] age 68 [13] years, 61 men, 83 participants with FFT, 12 participants with a plaque) were evaluated. The >3.8-mm threshold had a sensitivity of 88% (73 of 83) (95% confidence interval [CI] 78%-94%) and specificity of 83% (10 of 12) (95% CI 51%-97%) (area under the curve 0.91, p < 0.001) for the diagnosis of FFT. The optimal length threshold was >3.64 mm with a sensitivity of 89% (74 of 83) (95% CI 80%-95%) and specificity of 83% (10 of 12) (95% CI 51%-97%). Adjusted logistic regression showed that every 1-mm increase in intraluminal filling defect length is associated with an increase in odds of FFT of 4.6 (95% CI 1.9-11.1, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION CTA enables accurate differentiation of FFT vs plaque using craniocaudal length thresholds. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02405845. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE This study provides Class I evidence that in patients with TIA/stroke symptoms, the presence of CTA-identified filling defects of lengths >3.8 mm accurately discriminates FFT from atheromatous plaque.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Torres
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada.
| | - Cheemun Lum
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Paulo Puac-Polanco
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Grant Stotts
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Michel Christopher Frank Shamy
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Dylan Blacquiere
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Ronda Lun
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Prasham Dave
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Aditya Bharatha
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Bijoy K Menon
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Rebecca Thornhill
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Franco Momoli
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
| | - Dar Dowlatshahi
- From the Division of Neuroradiology (C.T., P.P.-P.), Department of Radiology, Division of Neurology (G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., R.L., P.D., D.D.), Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Physics (R.T.), Department of Radiology, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health (F.M.), University of Ottawa; Neuroscience Program (C.T., G.S., M.C.F.S., D.B., D.D.), The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Division of Neuroradiology (A.B.), Department of Medical Imaging, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Ontario; and Departments of Clinical Neurosciences, Radiology, and Community Health Sciences (B.K.M.), University of Calgary, Foothills Medical Centre, Alberta, Canada
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Fan J, Chen M, Luo J, Yang S, Shi J, Yao Q, Zhang X, Du S, Qu H, Cheng Y, Ma S, Zhang M, Xu X, Wang Q, Zhan S. The prediction of asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis with electronic health records: a comparative study of six machine learning models. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2021; 21:115. [PMID: 33820531 PMCID: PMC8020544 DOI: 10.1186/s12911-021-01480-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2020] [Accepted: 03/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Screening carotid B-mode ultrasonography is a frequently used method to detect subjects with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS). Due to the asymptomatic progression of most CAS patients, early identification is challenging for clinicians, and it may trigger ischemic stroke. Recently, machine learning has shown a strong ability to classify data and a potential for prediction in the medical field. The combined use of machine learning and the electronic health records of patients could provide clinicians with a more convenient and precise method to identify asymptomatic CAS. METHODS Retrospective cohort study using routine clinical data of medical check-up subjects from April 19, 2010 to November 15, 2019. Six machine learning models (logistic regression [LR], random forest [RF], decision tree [DT], eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGB], Gaussian Naïve Bayes [GNB], and K-Nearest Neighbour [KNN]) were used to predict asymptomatic CAS and compared their predictability in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC), accuracy (ACC), and F1 score (F1). RESULTS Of the 18,441 subjects, 6553 were diagnosed with asymptomatic CAS. Compared to DT (AUCROC 0.628, ACC 65.4%, and F1 52.5%), the other five models improved prediction: KNN + 7.6% (0.704, 68.8%, and 50.9%, respectively), GNB + 12.5% (0.753, 67.0%, and 46.8%, respectively), XGB + 16.0% (0.788, 73.4%, and 55.7%, respectively), RF + 16.6% (0.794, 74.5%, and 56.8%, respectively) and LR + 18.1% (0.809, 74.7%, and 59.9%, respectively). The highest achieving model, LR predicted 1045/1966 cases (sensitivity 53.2%) and 3088/3566 non-cases (specificity 86.6%). A tenfold cross-validation scheme further verified the predictive ability of the LR. CONCLUSIONS Among machine learning models, LR showed optimal performance in predicting asymptomatic CAS. Our findings set the stage for an early automatic alarming system, allowing a more precise allocation of CAS prevention measures to individuals probably to benefit most.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaxin Fan
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Mengying Chen
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jian Luo
- Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Shusen Yang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jinming Shi
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Qingling Yao
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaodong Zhang
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Shuang Du
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Huiyang Qu
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yuxuan Cheng
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Shuyin Ma
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Meijuan Zhang
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xi Xu
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Qian Wang
- Department of Health Management, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Shuqin Zhan
- Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No. 157 West Five Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China.
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