Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Including Body Composition Parameters for Predicting Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy

Baseline and early changes in CT body composition can predict recurrence-free survival after radical gastrectomy: A sex-specific study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the predictive value of baseline CT body composition and its early changes on recurrence-free survival (RFS) following radical gastrectomy, while also assessing potential sex-related differences.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of gastric cancer (GC) patients with confirmed pathology from October 2019 to May 2023. All patients underwent preoperative and postoperative CT scans to assess visceral fat area (VFA), subcutaneous fat area (SFA), skeletal muscle area (SMA), and skeletal muscle density (SMD), along with calculating their respective rates of change. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of RFS in male and female patients separately, and nomogram models were subsequently developed. The models' predictive performance was assessed using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The study included 287 patients, consisting of 185 males and 102 females. At baseline, males had a lower subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI) but higher skeletal muscle index (SMI) and SMD compared to females (p＜0.001). Postoperatively, both SATI and visceral adipose tissue index (VATI) were significantly lower in both males and females than their corresponding preoperative values (p＜0.005). In males, SMI (HR = 0.442, p = 0.002), VATI (HR = 1.843, p = 0.018), lymphocyte (LYM) (HR = 0.486, p = 0.040), pathological T stage (HR = 3.004, p = 0.003), and postoperative complication (POC) (HR = 1.893, p = 0.014) were found to be independent predictors of RFS. In females, independent predictors of RFS included SMI (HR = 0.361, p = 0.013), SATI change rate (δSATI) (HR = 0.428, p = 0.024), albumin (ALB) (HR = 0.242, p = 0.003), CEA (HR = 5.418, p < 0.001), and POC (HR = 3.425, p < 0.001). The male-specific nomogram model demonstrated predictive accuracy for recurrence-free survival (RFS), with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.621, 0.783, and 0.796 at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Similarly, the female-specific nomogram model achieved AUCs of 0.796, 0.836, and 0.783 at the corresponding time points. Calibration curves indicated a strong concordance between predicted and observed outcomes, while DCA validated the clinical utility of both models. Additionally, the models effectively stratified patients into low-risk and high-risk groups.

CONCLUSION

Sex differences were observed in the predictive value of CT body composition for RFS after gastrectomy. By incorporating CT body composition parameters and clinical indicators, sex-specific nomogram models were developed, demonstrating effective prediction of RFS in gastric cancer patients post-surgery.

CT assessment of liver fat fraction and abdominal fat composition can predict postoperative liver metastasis of colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to investigate the clinical value of liver fat fraction assessed by CT(CT-LFF) and abdominal fat components. We focus on predicting liver metastasis (LM) after colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery.

METHODS

Clinical and imaging data from 79 patients who underwent radical CRC surgery between January 2019 and December 2021 were retrospectively collected. Semi-automatic software was used to quantify the area of different body tissues at the level of the third lumbar vertebra, and liver fat fraction was calculated based on the CT values. Patients were grouped according to BMI, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, vascular invasion (VI), perineural invasion (PNI), and preoperative levels of CEA and CA199. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify independent risk factors for early LM after surgery. The diagnostic performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic analysis with 5-fold cross-validation. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw survival curves, and Log-Rank test was used for survival analysis.

RESULTS

The study found that the occurrence of LM after CRC surgery was significantly associated with CA199 positivity, VI, PNI, N1-2 stage, CT-LFF, VAT index (VATI). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that CA199 positivity (OR = 7.659), N1-2 stage (OR = 6.394), CT-LFF (OR = 1.271), VATI (OR = 1.043) were independent risk factors for predicting LM after CRC surgery. The multivariate logistic regression model, constructed using these independent risk factors, demonstrated robust predictive performance across 5-fold cross-validations, with an average AUC of 0.898 (95 % CI: 0.828-0.969). Survival analysis showed a significant difference in liver metastasis-free survival rates between the high-risk and low-risk groups (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

CT-LFF and VATI assessed by CT are independent risk factors for predicting LM after CRC surgery. The multivariate prediction model combining CA199 and N stage shows high predictive performance.

Influence of body fat tissue on outcomes in patients undergoing hepatectomy or liver transplantation

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to investigate potential associations between body fat composition and postoperative outcomes in patients with hepatectomy or liver transplantation.

METHODS

Three online databases, including Embase, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library, were thoroughly searched for literature describing the relationship between body fat composition and outcomes of patients with liver surgery from the start of each database to October 29, 2023. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to rate the quality of the studies.

RESULTS

This analysis included a total of 29 articles with a combined patient cohort of 6,435 individuals. The results demonstrated that patients with high intramuscular fat content (IMFC) had significantly inferior OS (HR: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.69-2.53, P < 0.001) and RFS (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.20-2.16, P = 0.002) and a higher risk of major complications (HR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.59-3.05, P < 0.001). We also found that the presence of high visceral-to-subcutaneous fat tissue ratio (VSR) in patients with liver surgery was significantly related to poorer OS (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.44-2.00, P < 0.001) and PFS (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.50, P = 0.001) and a higher major complication rate (HR: 2.31, 95% CI: 1.17-4.56, P = 0.016). Besides, the synthesized findings indicated there is no significant correlation between visceral fat tissue and survival outcomes or postoperative complications.

CONCLUSION

In summary, preoperative IMFC and VSR have the potential to forecast poorer OS and RFS and a higher risk of complications for patients undergoing hepatectomy or liver transplantation.

Establishing and Externally Validating a Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, and Platelet (HALP) Score-Based Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in BCLC Stage 0/A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Radical Liver Resection: A Multi-Center Study

Purpose

Early recurrence (ER) is associated with poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we developed and externally validated a nomogram based on the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets (HALP) score to predict ER for patients with BCLC stage 0/A HCC who underwent radical liver resection.

Patients and Methods

A total of 808 BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients from six hospitals were included in this study, and they were assigned to a training cohort (n = 500) and an external validation cohort (n = 308). We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS). We also established and externally validated a nomogram based on these risk predictors. The nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan‒Meier analysis.

Results

Multivariate COX regression showed that HBV DNA ≥10,000 IU/mL (P < 0.001), HALP score ≤38.20 (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.003), clinically significant portal hypertension (P = 0.001), Edmondson-Steiner grade (III-IV) (P = 0.007), satellite nodules (P < 0.001), and MVI (P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for post-operative tumor recurrence. The AUC of our nomogram for predicting the 2-year and 5-year DFS was 0.756 and 0.750, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.764 and 0.705, respectively, in the external validation cohort. We divided the patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the risk score calculated by the nomogram. There were statistically significant differences in the DFS and overall survival (OS) among the three groups of patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

We developed and externally validated a new nomogram, which is accurate and can predict ER in BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients after curative liver resection.

The Impact of Imaging-Diagnosed Sarcopenia on Long-term Prognosis After Curative Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Recent research suggests that sarcopenia potentially influences the long-term postoperative prognosis of malignant tumors. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to investigate the impact of imaging-diagnosed sarcopenia on the long-term prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection.

METHODS

In our approach, all studies incorporated in this study employed Cox proportional hazards models with multivariable adjusted hazard ratios. The meta-analysis was performed using R statistical software. The primary outcomes were quantified using hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

This study analyzed 30 studies, involving 7352 HCC patients after curative resection (2695 in the sarcopenia group and 4657 in the non-sarcopenia group). The meta-analysis of 28 studies indicated that patients in the sarcopenia group demonstrated notably inferior overall survival (OS) compared with the non-sarcopenia group (HR=2.20; 95% CI, 1.88-2.58; p < 0.01). Similarly, sarcopenia exhibits a significant association with poor recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-free survival (DFS) based on 16 and 6 studies (HR=1.50; 95% CI, 1.39-1.63; p < 0.01 and HR=1.96; 95% CI, 1.83-2.10; p < 0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, imaging-diagnosed sarcopenia adversely affects the long-term prognosis, including OS, RFS, and DFS, in HCC patients after curative resection. The findings hold considerable importance in guiding comprehensive healthcare procedures for HCC patients after surgery.