Experimental and observational evidence reveals that predators in natural environments do not regulate their prey: They are passengers, not drivers

Myths, Wishful Thinking, and Accountability in Predator Conservation and Management in the United States

Large predators are thought of as ecological keystone species, posterchildren of conservation campaigns, and sought-after targets of tourists and photographers. At the same time, predators kill livestock and huntable animals, and occasionally people, triggering fears and antipathy among those living alongside them. Until the 1960’s government-sponsored eradication and persecution campaigns in the United States prioritized interests of livestock producers and recreational hunters, leading to eradication of wolves and bears over much of their range. Without large predators, subsidized by changes in agricultural practices and milder winters, ungulate populations erupted, triggering negative ecological impacts, economic damage, and human health crises (such as tick-borne diseases). Shifting societal preferences have ushered in more predator-friendly, but controversial wildlife policies, from passively allowing range expansion to purposeful reintroductions (such as release of wolves in Yellowstone National Park). Attempts to restore wolves or mountain lions in the U.S. and protecting coyotes appear to enjoy strong public support, but many state wildlife agencies charged with managing wildlife, and recreational hunters continue to oppose such efforts, because they perceive predators as competitors for huntable animals. There may be compelling reasons for restoring predators or allowing them to recolonize their former ranges. But if range expansion or intentional releases of large predators do not result in ecosystem recovery, reduced deer populations, or Lyme disease reductions, conservationists who have put their reputation on the line and assured decision makers and the public of the important functional role of large predators may lose public standing and trust. Exaggerated predictions by ranchers and recreational hunters of greatly reduced ungulate populations and rampant livestock killing by large carnivores may lead to poaching and illegal killing threatening recovery of predator populations. How the return of large carnivores may affect vegetation and successional change, ungulate population size, other biota, livestock and human attitudes in different landscapes has not been appropriately assessed. Societal support and acceptance of living alongside predators as they expand their range and increase in abundance requires development and monitoring of social, ecological and economic indicators to assess how return of large predators affects human and animal and plant livelihoods.

Evidence for different bottom-up mechanisms in wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) and bank vole (Myodes glareolus) population fluctuations in Southern Norway

Animals that feed on forest tree seeds, such as Apodemus mice, increase in number after a mast year. At high latitudes, there is a similar delayed response by Myodes voles to high seed crops of bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), but here the mechanism is hypothesised to be increased forage quality, caused by a trade-off between reproduction and defence in the plants. Both Apodemus mice and Myodes voles eat berries, but only the latter feed on bilberry plants. Hence, only Myodes voles are predicted to respond to bilberry peak years. A second prediction is that the effect should last longer than any possible direct impacts of bilberries, because the plants would not be able to rebuild their defence until the succeeding summer. During a 21-year snap-trapping study of small rodents in Southern Norway, the spring population of bank vole (Myodes glareolus) was positively related to a bilberry seed index of the previous year, indicating increased winter survival, whereas the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) was not affected. Also the succeeding autumn population index of the bank vole was positively related to the bilberry index of the previous year, even when controlling for spring population levels. The wood mouse population responded to mast years of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), whereas seeds of Norway spruce (Picea abies) seemed to have some impact on both species. It is concluded that these rodents are mainly limited from below, but by different mechanisms for the granivorous and the herbivorous species.

Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect

Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra- and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces as well as environmental factors on population dynamics with a spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical approach. We found red squirrel abundance to be positively associated with both the abundance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) cones and the predators, the pine marten (Martes martes) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), probably due to shared habitat preferences. The results suggest that red squirrel populations are synchronized over remarkably large distances, on a scale of hundreds of kilometres, and that this synchrony is mainly driven by similarly spatially autocorrelated spruce cone crop. Our research demonstrates how a bottom-up effect can drive spatial synchrony in consumer populations on a very large scale of hundreds of kilometres, and also how an explicit spatiotemporal approach can improve model performance for fluctuating populations.

Importance of Wetland Refugia in Agricultural Landscape Provided Based on the Community Characteristics of Small Terrestrial Mammals

Intensification of agriculture has led, among other negative consequences, also to drying out of wetlands. Nevertheless, some of the wetland biotopes were preserved as small spots. This paper discusses the importance of those areas serving as refugia for small terrestrial mammals. Because small terrestrial mammals in the middle of food webs, they serve as an indicator for the presence of food sources (plants and invertebrates) and suggest the potential of the area as a living space for predators. The experiment took place at lowland agricultural landscape with wetland patches in west and west-east Slovakia (Záhorská and Podunajská nížina lowlands) using catch-mark-release method from 2015 to 2017. The importance was assessed according to abundance, biodiversity, persistence of species during seasons and habitat preference of small terrestrial mammals and equitability of the biotopes. Overall 368 individuals belonging to 12 species were recorded. The lowest abundance and diversity were registered at field biotopes where Apodemus sylvaticus was the most abundant. Microtus arvalis, Clethrionomys glareolus and Sorex araneus dominate at wetland biotopes. The higher biodiversity and abundance of small mammals were recorded at the wetland refugia. The results, together with position of small mammals in food webs, lead to conclusion that the wetland refugia are important habitats for the overall preservation of biodiversity and maintaining them is a part of the strategy for sustainable agriculture.

Assessing the spatiotemporal interactions of mesopredators in Sumatra's tropical rainforest

Co-occurrence between mesopredators can be achieved by differentiation of prey, temporal activity, and spatial habitat use. The study of mesopredator interactions is a growing area of research in tropical forests and shedding new light on inter-guild competition between threatened vertebrate species that were previously little understood. Here, we investigate sympatry between the Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) and Asiatic golden cat (Pardofelis temminckii) living in the Sumatran rainforests of Indonesia. We investigate: i) spatial overlap of predator-prey species using a combination of single-species occupancy modelling and Bayesian two-species modelling, while controlling for the possible influence of several confounding landscape variables; and, ii) temporal overlap between mesopredators and their shared prey through calculating their kernel density estimate associations. From four study areas, representing lowland, hill, sub-montane and montane forest, 28,404 camera trap nights were sampled. Clouded leopard and golden cat were respectively detected in 24.3% and 22.6% of the 292 sampling sites (camera stations) and co-occurred in 29.6% of the sites where they were detected. Golden cat occupancy was highest in the study area where clouded leopard occupancy was lowest and conversely lowest in the study area where clouded leopard occupancy was highest. However, our fine-scale (camera trap site) analyses found no evidence of avoidance between these two felid species. While both mesopredators exhibited highest spatial overlap with the larger-bodied prey species, temporal niche separation was also found. Clouded leopard was more nocturnal and, consequently, had higher temporal overlap with the more nocturnal prey species, such as porcupine and mouse deer, whereas the more diurnal golden cat had higher overlap with the strictly diurnal great argus pheasant. The Bayesian two species occupancy modelling approach applied in our study fills several important knowledge gaps of Sumatra’s lesser known mesopredators and provides a replicable methodology for studying interspecific competition for other small-medium sized carnivore species in the tropics.

Bottom-up processes drive reproductive success in an apex predator

One of the central goals of the field of population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics, particularly in the context of predator-prey relationships. Understanding the relative role of top-down versus bottom-up drivers is of particular interest in understanding ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to explore predator-prey relationships in a boreal ecosystem in interior Alaska through the use of multispecies long-term monitoring data. We used 29 years of field data and a dynamic multistate site occupancy modeling approach to explore the trophic relationships between an apex predator, the golden eagle, and cyclic populations of the two primary prey species available to eagles early in the breeding season, snowshoe hare and willow ptarmigan. We found that golden eagle reproductive success was reliant on prey numbers, but also responded prior to changes in the phase of the snowshoe hare population cycle and failed to respond to variation in hare cycle amplitude. There was no lagged response to ptarmigan populations, and ptarmigan populations recovered quickly from the low phase. Together, these results suggested that eagle reproduction is largely driven by bottom-up processes, with little evidence of top-down control of either ptarmigan or hare populations. Although the relationship between golden eagle reproductive success and prey abundance had been previously established, here we established prey populations are likely driving eagle dynamics through bottom-up processes. The key to this insight was our focus on golden eagle reproductive parameters rather than overall abundance. Although our inference is limited to the golden eagle-hare-ptarmigan relationships we studied, our results suggest caution in interpreting predator-prey abundance patterns among other species as strong evidence for top-down control.

Environmental effects are stronger than human effects on mammalian predator-prey relationships in arid Australian ecosystems

Climate (drought, rainfall), geology (habitat availability), land use change (provision of artificial waterpoints, introduction of livestock), invasive species (competition, predation), and direct human intervention (lethal control of top-predators) have each been identified as processes driving the sustainability of threatened fauna populations. We used a systematic combination of empirical observational studies and experimental manipulations to comprehensively evaluate the effects of these process on a model endangered rodent, dusky hopping-mice (Notomys fuscus). We established a large manipulative experiment in arid Australia, and collected information from relative abundance indices, camera traps, GPS-collared dingoes (Canis familiaris) and dingo scats, along with a range of related environmental data (e.g. rainfall, habitat type, distance to artificial water etc.). We show that hopping-mice populations were most strongly influenced by geological and climatic effects of resource availability and rainfall, and not land use, invasive species, or human effects of livestock grazing, waterpoint provision, or the lethal control of dingoes. Hopping-mice distribution declined along a geological gradient of more to less available hopping-mice habitat (sand dunes), and their abundance was driven by rainfall. Hopping-mice populations fluctuated independent of livestock presence, artificial waterpoint availability or repeated lethal dingo control. Hopping-mice populations appear to be limited first by habitat availability, then by food availability, then by predation. Contemporary top-predator control practices (for protection of livestock) have little influence on hopping-mice behaviour or population dynamics. Given our inability to constrain the effects of predation across broad scales, management actions focusing on increasing available food and habitat (e.g. alteration of fire and herbivory) may have a greater chance of improving the conservation status of hopping-mice and other small mammals in arid areas. Our study also reaffirms the importance of using systematic and experimental approaches to detect true drivers of population distribution and dynamics where multiple potential drivers operate simultaneously.

Ecological history of the koala and implications for management

Assessments of the conservation status of koalas and trends in their population have been based on mostly unstated false assumptions about their pre-European status and on notions that either they were naturally regulated by their predators, chiefly Aborigines and dingoes, or that they somehow ‘self-regulated’ their fecundity. Closer examination of their ecological history suggests that frequent mild burning by Aborigines maintained eucalypt forests having fewer, mostly healthy trees, fewer young trees, canopies comprising mostly hard and dry leaves with low nutrient content, and, consequently, very few koalas. European explorers did not see them because they were solitary animals occupying large home ranges. After burning was disrupted, koalas responded to increased food resources in dense new growth of eucalypts and in stressed trees continually turning over new foliage. An export skin industry flourished. When their food resources were depleted by clearing or ringbarking of new growth and/or death of declining stands during droughts, koalas crashed back to low levels. Koalas continue to irrupt and decline through much of their range according to changing land management. Wildlife managers should re-assess their status and their management from a clear historical and ecological perspective.

Timing of population peaks of Norway lemming in relation to atmospheric pressure: A hypothesis to explain the spatial synchrony

Herbivore cycles are often synchronized over larger areas than what could be explained by dispersal. In Norway, the 3-4 year lemming cycle usually show no more than a one-year time lag between different regions, despite distances of up to 1000 km. If important food plants are forced to reallocate defensive proteins in years with high seed production, spatially synchronized herbivore outbreaks may be due to climate-synchronized peaks in flowering. Because lemming peaks are expected to occur one year after a flowering peak, and the formation of flower buds is induced in the year before flowering, a two-year time lag between flower-inducing climate events and lemming peaks is predicted. At Hardangervidda, South Norway, the probability that a year was a population peak year of lemming during 1920-2014 increased with increasing midsummer atmospheric pressure two years earlier, even when the number of years since the previous peak was accounted for.

Mammalian cycles: internally defined periods and interaction-driven amplitudes

The cause of mammalian cycles—the rise and fall of populations over a predictable period of time—has remained controversial since these patterns were first observed over a century ago. In spite of extensive work on observable mammalian cycles, the field has remained divided upon what the true cause is, with a majority of opinions attributing it to either predation or to intra-species mechanisms. Here we unite the eigenperiod hypothesis, which describes an internal, maternal effect-based mechanism to explain the cycles’ periods with a recent generalization explaining the amplitude of snowshoe hare cycles in northwestern North America based on initial predator abundance. By explaining the period and the amplitude of the cycle with separate mechanisms, a unified and consistent view of the causation of cycles is reached. Based on our suggested theory, we forecast the next snowshoe hare cycle (predicted peak in 2016) to be of extraordinarily low amplitude.