Climate change forecasts suggest that the conservation area network in the Cerrado-Amazon transition zone needs to be expanded

How do intrinsic and extrinsic causes interact in the extinction vulnerability of South American savanna shrub and tree species?

Although a growing body of literature recognises the importance of rarity for biodiversity conservation, it is unclear how the interaction of different forms of rarity, extrinsic causes of extinction, and protection affect species' vulnerability. Here we addressed the extinction vulnerability of 2203 shrub and tree species of the South American savanna (SAS). For this, species were attributed a form of rarity, a synergistic risk index (SRI), and a protection index (PI). The SRI combines three extrinsic causes of extinction (climate hazard, fire frequency, and human footprint). The PI is the ratio between the number of a species occurrences within protected areas and the total number of occurrences in the SAS. By combining the SRI and PI, we classified common and rare species into five vulnerability classes. Some regions of the SAS show high values of climate hazard, fire frequency, human footprint, and SRI. Each extrinsic cause of extinction is differently distributed across the SAS and shows no or low spatial congruence with the SRI. Many species show a low ratio of occurrences within PAs, which in combination with high SRI results in high vulnerability to extinction. Surprisingly, the number of common species in the higher vulnerability classes is higher than of rare species. Common and rare species in different vulnerability classes occur in somewhat different locations across the SAS and mainly constitute spatially incongruent centres with high species richness. Given our results, we propose that strategies for the effective conservation of SAS species are challenging and must be carefully designed.