Multi-year monitoring land surface phenology in relation to climatic variables using MODIS-NDVI time-series in Mediterranean forest, Northeast Tunisia

Vegetation Greenness Trend in Dry Seasons and Its Responses to Temperature and Precipitation in Mara River Basin, Africa

The Mara River Basin of Africa has a world-famous ecosystem with vast vegetation, which is home to many wild animals. However, the basin is experiencing vegetation degradation and bad climate change, which has caused conflicts between people and wild animals, especially in dry seasons. This paper studied the vegetation greenness (VG), vegetation greenness trends (VGT), and their responses to climate change in dry seasons in the Mara River Basin, Africa. Firstly, based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and Sentinel-2 images, the vegetation distribution map of the Mara River Basin was drawn. Then dry seasons MODIS NDVI data (January to February and June to September) were used to analyze the VGT. Finally, a random forest regression algorithm was used to evaluate the response of VG and VGT to temperature and precipitation derived from ERA5 from 2000 to 2019 at a resolution of 250 m. The results showed that the VGT was fluctuating in dry seasons, and the spatial differentiation was obvious. The greenness increasing trends both upstream and downstream were significantly larger than that of in the midstream. The responses of VG to precipitation were almost twice larger than temperature, and the responses of VGT to temperature were about 1.5 times larger than precipitation. The climate change trend of rising temperature and falling precipitation will lead to the degradation of vegetation and the reduction of crop production. There will be a vegetation degradation crisis in dry seasons in the Mara River Basin in the future. Identifying the spatiotemporal changes of VGT in dry seasons will be helpful to understand the response of VG and VGT to climate change and could also provide technical support to cope with climate-change-related issues for the basin.

A Selection of Experiments for Understanding the Strengths of Time Series SAR Data Analysis for Finding the Drivers Causing Phenological Changes in Paphos Forest, Cyprus

Observing phenological changes are important for evaluating the natural regeneration process of forests, especially in Mediterranean areas where the regeneration of coniferous forests depends on seeds and the changes in blossoming time are influenced by climate change. The high temporal resolution of Sentinel-1 data allows the time series analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, but it is still unknown how these data could be utilised for better understanding forest phenology and climate-related alternations. This study investigates the phenological cycle of Paphos forest, Cyprus using SAR data from 1992 to 2021, acquired by ERS-1/2, Envisat and Sentinel-1. An average phenological diagram was created for each space mission and a more detailed analysis was performed from October 2014 to November 2021, using the higher temporal resolution of Sentinel-1 data. Meteorological data were used to better understand the drivers of blooming alternations. Using the interquartile range (IQR), outliers were detected and replaced using the Kalman filter imputation. Forecasting trend lines were used to estimate the amplitude of the summer peaks and the annual mean. The observation of the average phenology from each satellite mission showed that there were two main blooming peaks each year: the winter and the summer peak. We argue that the winter peak relates to increased foliage, water content and/or increased soil moisture. The winter peak was followed by a fall in February reaching the lower point around March, due to the act of pine processionary (Thaumetopoea pityocampa). The summer peak should relate to the annual regeneration of needles and the drop of the old ones. A delay in the summer peak—in August 2018—was associated with increased high temperatures in May 2018. Simultaneously, the appearance of one peak instead of two in the σVH time series during the period November 2014–October 2015 may be linked to a reduced act of the pine processionary associated with low November temperatures. Furthermore, there was an outlier in February 2016 with very low backscattering coefficients and it was associated with a drought year. Finally, predicting the amplitude of July 2020 returned high relevant Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE). Seven years of time series data are limiting for predicting using trend lines and many parameters need to be taken into consideration, including the increased rainfall between November 2018 and March 2020.

Quantifying Fundamental Vegetation Traits over Europe Using the Sentinel-3 OLCI Catalogue in Google Earth Engine

Thanks to the emergence of cloud-computing platforms and the ability of machine learning methods to solve prediction problems efficiently, this work presents a workflow to automate spatiotemporal mapping of essential vegetation traits from Sentinel-3 (S3) imagery. The traits included leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), leaf area index (LAI), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), and fractional vegetation cover (FVC), being fundamental for assessing photosynthetic activity on Earth. The workflow involved Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithms trained on top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance simulations generated by the coupled canopy radiative transfer model (RTM) SCOPE and the atmospheric RTM 6SV. The retrieval models, named to S3-TOA-GPR-1.0, were directly implemented in Google Earth Engine (GEE) to enable the quantification of the traits from TOA data as acquired from the S3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) sensor.Following good to high theoretical validation results with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) ranging from 5% (FAPAR) to 19% (LAI), a three fold evaluation approach over diverse sites and land cover types was pursued: (1) temporal comparison against LAI and FAPAR products obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the time window 2016-2020, (2) spatial difference mapping with Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) estimates, and (3) direct validation using interpolated in situ data from the VALERI network. For all three approaches, promising results were achieved. Selected sites demonstrated coherent seasonal patterns compared to LAI and FAPAR MODIS products, with differences between spatially averaged temporal patterns of only 6.59%. In respect of the spatial mapping comparison, estimates provided by the S3-TOA-GPR-1.0 models indicated highest consistency with FVC and FAPAR CGLS products. Moreover, the direct validation of our S3-TOA-GPR-1.0 models against VALERI estimates indicated with regard to jurisdictional claims in good retrieval performance for LAI, FAPAR and FVC. We conclude that our retrieval workflow of spatiotemporal S3 TOA data processing into GEE opens the path towards global monitoring of fundamental vegetation traits, accessible to the whole research community.

Climatic Drivers of the Complex Phenology of the Mediterranean Semi-Deciduous Shrub Phlomis fruticosa Based on Satellite-Derived EVI

A 21-year Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time-series produced from MODIS satellite images was used to study the complex phenological cycle of the drought semi-deciduous shrub Phlomis fruticosa and additionally to identify and compare phenological events between two Mediterranean sites with different microclimates. In the more xeric Araxos site, spring leaf fall starts earlier, autumn revival occurs later, and the dry period is longer, compared with the more favorable Louros site. Accordingly, the control of climatic factors on phenological events was examined and found that the Araxos site is mostly influenced by rain related events while Louros site by both rain and temperature. Spring phenological events showed significant shifts at a rate of 1-4.9 days per year in Araxos, which were positively related to trends for decreasing spring precipitation and increasing summer temperature. Furthermore, the climatic control on the inter-annual EVI fluctuation was examined through multiple linear regression and machine learning approaches. For both sites, temperature during the previous 2-3 months and rain days of the previous 3 months were identified as the main drivers of the EVI profile. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing on a single species and small-spatial-scale information in connecting vegetation responses to the climate crisis.