Potential distribution of four vectors of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis: The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes from the perspective of the ecological niche

Spatio-temporal analysis of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis incidences in the Brazilian state of Amazonas: 2011 to 2022

This study aimed to conduct a spatio-temporal analysis of tegumentary leishmaniasis occurrences in the Amazonas state, Brazil. An ecological study encompassing time series and spatial analysis was performed, exploring the geographic distribution and temporal trends of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis (ATL) in Amazonas between 2011 and 2022. Secondary data extracted from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) were utilized for this analysis. The study evaluated the relationship between disease cases and environmental/climatic variables (deforestation, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity). Over the study period, 19,730 cases of tegumentary leishmaniasis were recorded, averaging an incidence of 41.4/100,000 inhabitants across the 62 municipalities of Amazonas state. Disease intensity varied with seasons. Generally, Amazonas state displayed a declining trend in ATL cases. However, certain municipalities, notably Rio Preto da Eva and Presidente Figueiredo, exhibited high incidence rates, while Canutama, Envira, Eirunepé, and Pauini municipalities demand closer attention due to their demonstrated increasing temporal trend of ATL cases. The analysis indicated a correlation between the number of ATL cases reported and relative humidity as well as precipitation. These findings underscore the significance of tegumentary leishmaniasis as a public health issue in the region and emphasize the necessity for public initiatives aimed at preventing this endemic illness.

The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes on the existing niche and potential distribution of vector and host species of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis

Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans by a protozoan parasite through sandfly vectors and multiple vertebrate hosts. The Pan American Health Organization reported a declining trend in cases, with Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Nicaragua, and Bolivia having the most cases in 2020. There are still knowledge gaps in transmission and the parasite-host relationship. Ecological niche modeling has been used to study host-vector relationships, disease dynamics, and the impact of climate change. Understanding these aspects can aid in early surveillance and vector control strategies. The potential distribution of five host species associated with the transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) was modeled. Occurrence data were collected for each host species, and environmental variables were used to build the models. Climatic data from El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral episodes were used to compare the predicted distributions. Additionally, the potential distributions of four vector species were compared to identify overlaps with host species. Niche analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in vector niches across episodes and to identify host-vector pairs based on niche overlap in geographic and environmental spaces. After spatial thinning, 467 records were obtained, and 1,190 candidate models were evaluated for each species. Results showed the distribution of occurrences in the environmental space, highlighting a high risk of extrapolation beyond the calibration areas. Movement-Oriented Parity analysis revealed distinct distribution patterns under different climate conditions, with areas of environmental similarity identified. Bradypus variegatus exhibited a broad potential distribution, while Dasypus novemcinctus and Didelphis marsupialis had more restricted ranges. Sylvilagus braziliensis covered most of the Neotropics. Our study provides valuable insights into ecological niches and geographic ranges of these species, contributing to the understanding of cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.