Performance of EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk scores in elderly patients undergoing aortic valve replacement surgery

Long-Term Assessment of Survival After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation - Insights From the International Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Registry

BACKGROUND

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an established treatment for severe aortic stenosis (AS), but despite estimates of life expectancy after TAVI being essential in heart team discussion, these data are scarce. Therefore, the current study sought to assess long-term survival and its trends in relation to chronological age, surgical risk, and treatment period.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 2,414 consecutive patients who underwent TAVI for severe symptomatic AS between 2008 and 2021 at 2 international centers. For the analysis, long-term survival was evaluated according to age, surgical risk, and treatment period categorized into 3 groups, respectively. The longest follow-up was 13.5 years. Overall survival was 67.6% at 5 years and 26.9% at 10 years. Younger patients, lower surgical risk, and later treatment period showed better survival (log-rank P<0.001, respectively). In the multivariate analysis, age <75years, lower surgical risk, and later time period were significantly associated with better survival. The incidence of paravalvular leakage ≥moderate, red blood cell transfusion, and acute kidney injury were independently associated with increasing risk of 5-year death.

CONCLUSIONS

In a real-world registry, survival was substantial following TAVI, especially in younger and lower surgical-risk patients, with improving outcomes over time. This should be considered in heart team discussions of life-long management for AS patients after TAVI.

Cholesterol Crystal Dissolution Rate of Serum Predicts Outcomes in Patients With Aortic Stenosis Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

BACKGROUND

Aortic stenosis has pathophysiological similarities with atherosclerosis, including the deposition of cholesterol-containing lipoproteins. The resulting cholesterol crystals activate the NLRP3 (NOD-like receptor protein 3) inflammasome, leading to inflammation and cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to investigate the cholesterol crystal dissolution rate (CCDR) of serum in patients with aortic stenosis and to assess the prognostic value of this biomarker.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study included 348 patients with aortic stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement. The CCDR was measured using flow cytometry to enumerate cholesterol crystals that were added to a serum solution, at baseline and after 2 hours of incubation. Based on the median CCDR, the cohort was stratified into high and low cholesterol crystal dissolvers. The incidence of the primary end point, a composite of 1-year all-cause mortality and major vascular complication, was significantly lower in the high CCDR group (7.3 per 100 person-years) compared with the low CCDR group (17.0 per 100 person-years, P=0.01). This was mainly driven by a lower 1-year mortality rate in patients with a high CCDR (7.3 versus 15.1 per 100 person-years, P=0.04). Unplanned endovascular interventions were significantly less frequent in high cholesterol crystal dissolvers (12.8 versus 22.6 per 100 person-years, P=0.04). Although low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were comparable in both groups (101.8±37.3 mg/dL versus 97.9±37.6 mg/dL, P=0.35), only patients with a low CCDR showed a benefit from statin treatment. In multivariate analysis, low CCDR (hazard ratio, 2.21 [95% CI, 0.99-4.92], P=0.04) was significantly associated with 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The CCDR is a novel biomarker associated with outcome in patients with aortic stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement. It may provide new insights into patients' anti-inflammatory capacity and additional prognostic information beyond classic risk assessment.

CAROTIDSCORE.RU-The first Russian computer program for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy

GOAL

Presentation of the first Russian computer program (www.carotidscore.ru) for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy (CEE).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The present study is based on the analysis of a multicenter Russian database that includes 25,812 patients after CEE operated on from 01/01/2010 to 04/01/2022. The following types of CEE were implemented: 6814 classical CEE with plastic reconstruction of the reconstruction zone with a patch; 18,998 eversion CEE.

RESULTS

In the hospital postoperative period, 0.18% developed a lethal outcome, 0.14%-myocardial infarction, 0.35%-stroke. The combined endpoint was 0.68%. For each factor present in patients, a predictive coefficient was calculated. The prognostic coefficient was a numerical indicator reflecting the strength of the influence of each factor on the development of postoperative complications. Based on this formula, predictive coefficients were calculated for each factor present in patients in our study. The total contribution of these factors was reflected in "%" and denoted the risk of postoperative complications with a minimum value of 0% and a maximum of 100%. On the basis of the obtained calculations, a computer program CarotidSCORE was created. Its graphical interface is based on the QT framework (https://www.qt.io), which has established itself as one of the best solutions for desktop applications. It is possible not only to calculate the probability of developing a complication, but also to save all data about the patient in JSON format (for the patient's personal card and his anamnesis). The CarotidSCORE program contains 47 patient parameters, including clinical-demographic, anamnestic and angiographic characteristics. It allows you to choose one of the four types of CEE, which will provide an accurate stratification of the risk of complications for each of them in person.

CONCLUSION

CarotidSCORE (www.carotidscore.ru) is able to determine the likelihood of postoperative complications in patients undergoing CEE.

The Role of Natriuretic Peptides in Predicting Adverse Outcomes After Cardiac Surgery: An Updated Systematic Review

The increasing global burden of cardiovascular disease, particularly, in the aging population, has led to an increase in high-risk cardiac surgical procedures. The current preoperative risk stratification scores, such as the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation and the Society for Thoracic Surgeons score, have limitations in their predictive accuracy and tend to underestimate the mortality risk in higher-risk populations. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the utility of natriuretic peptides, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and its precursor prohormone (N-terminal prohormone BNP), as predictive biomarkers for adverse outcomes after cardiac surgery. A comprehensive search strategy was performed, and 63 studies involving 40,667 patients who underwent major cardiac operations were included for data extraction. Preoperative levels of BNP and N-terminal prohormone BNP seemed to be associated with an increased risk of short- and long-term mortality, postoperative heart failure, kidney injury, and length of intensive care unit stay. However, their predictive value for postoperative arrhythmias and myocardial infarction was less established. Our findings suggest that natriuretic peptides may play an important role in risk prediction in patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The addition of these biomarkers to the existing clinical risk stratification strategies may enhance their predictive accuracy. However, this needs to be endorsed by data derived from wide-scale clinical trials.

Dynamic prediction modeling of postoperative mortality among patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement in a statewide cohort over a 12-year period

Objective

Clinical prediction models for surgical aortic valve replacement mortality, are valuable decision tools but are often limited in their ability to account for changes in medical practice, patient selection, and the risk of outcomes over time. Recent research has identified methods to update models as new data accrue, but their effect on model performance has not been rigorously tested.

Methods

The study population included 44,546 adults who underwent an isolated surgical aortic valve replacement from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2018, statewide in Pennsylvania. After chronologically splitting the data into training and validation sets, we compared calibration, discrimination, and accuracy measures amongst a nonupdating model to 2 methods of model updating: calibration regression and the novel dynamic logistic state space model.

Results

The risk of mortality decreased significantly during the validation period (P < .01) and the nonupdating model demonstrated poor calibration and reduced accuracy over time. Both updating models maintained better calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic) than the nonupdating model: nonupdating (156.5), calibration regression (4.9), and dynamic logistic state space model (8.0). Overall accuracy (Brier score) was consistently better across both updating models: dynamic logistic state space model (0.0252), calibration regression (0.0253), and nonupdating (0.0256). Discrimination improved with the dynamic logistic state space model (area under the curve, 0.696) compared with the nonupdating model (area under the curve, 0.685) and calibration regression method (area under the curve, 0.687).

Conclusions

Dynamic model updating can improve model accuracy, discrimination, and calibration. The decision as to which method to use may depend on which measure is most important in each clinical context. Because competing therapies have emerged for valve replacement models, updating may guide clinical decision making.

Risk factors and complications associated with intra-operative or post-operative identification of a PFO in cardiac surgery patients: A cohort study

Introduction

It is unknown whether patent foramen ovale (PFO) reopening in the peri-operative setting of cardiac surgery affects the risk for stroke and post-operative outcomes.

Methods

We performed a single-center, retrospective study based on a prospectively collected database in a tertiary cardiac surgery center. Using logistic regression, we assessed risk factors of PFO finding around surgery and subsequent clinical complications.

Results

Between January 2007 and July 2019, 11034 patients who underwent cardiac surgery in our center were included. A total of 233 patients (2.1%) presented a finding of PFO including 138 per-operative disclosures and 95 post-operative finding for hypoxemia. In the whole cohort, the mean age was 68.4 ± 11.5 years including 73.9% of men. Post-operative PFO finding was associated with more ischemic strokes compared with per-operative finding and control group [7(7.4%) vs. 3(2.2%) vs. 236(2.2), respectively; p = 0.003]. Moreover, patients with post-operative PFO reopening experienced a higher rate of pneumonia, reintubation, and longer length of stay in the ICU. Post-operative reopening of PFO, but not per-operative finding, was independently associated with ischemic strokes {adjusted odds-ratio = 3.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.6-7.8]; p = 0.002}. Other variables associated with stroke incidence included age, mitral valve surgery, and ascending aorta surgery. Per- or post-operative PFO closure was associated with reduced adverse respiratory outcomes and a trend of the lower cerebral ischemic event.

Conclusion

Patent foramen ovale finding incidence in peri-operative cardiac surgery care was rare (2%) but post-operative finding of PFO was associated with a increased risk of ischemic strokes, worsened respiratory outcomes, and prolonged hospitalization.

Is EuroSCORE II still a reliable predictor for cardiac surgery mortality in 2022? A retrospective study study

OBJECTIVES

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is the most common tool used to evaluate the perioperative risk of mortality after cardiac surgery in Europe, and its use is currently recommended by the relevant guidelines. However, recently, its role has been questioned: Several papers have suggested that these algorithms may no longer be adequate for risk prediction due to an overestimation of adult cardiac surgical risk. Our goal was to validate the EuroSCORE II in the prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing open cardiac surgery in a high-volume hospital.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we included all patients who underwent cardiac surgery from January 2016 to May 2022 within the departments of cardiac surgery of the Monzino Cardiology Centre in Milan, Italy. We evaluated the discrimination power of the EuroSCORE II by using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the corresponding area under the curve. We performed calibration plots to assess the concordance between the model's prediction and the observed outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 4,034 patients were included (mean age = 65.1 years; 68% males), of which 674 (16.7%) underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The EuroSCORE II showed a good discrimination power in predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality (area under the curve = 0.834). However, for interventions performed in an elective setting, very low values of the EuroSCORE II overestimated the observed mortality, whereas for interventions performed in an emergency setting, EuroSCORE II values above 10 extensively underestimated the observed mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that the EuroSCORE II seems not to be a reliable score in estimating the true risk of death, especially in high-risk patients.

Current treatment of symptomatic aortic stenosis in elderly patients: Do risk scores really matter after 80 years of age?

BACKGROUND

According to the guidelines, surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) is recommended in patients at low surgical risk (EuroSCORE II<4%), whereas for other patients, the decision between transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and surgery should be made by the Heart Team, with TAVI being favoured in elderly patients.

AIM

The RAC prospective multicentre survey assessed the respective contributions of age and surgical risk scores in therapeutic decision making in elderly patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis.

METHODS

In September and October 2016, 1049 consecutive patients aged ≥ 75 years were included in 32 centres with on-site TAVI and surgical facilities. The primary endpoint was the decision between medical management, TAVI or SAVR.

RESULTS

Mean age was 84±5 years and 53% of patients were female. The surgical risk was classified as high (EuroSCORE II>8%) in 18% of patients, intermediate (EuroSCORE II 4-8%) in 34% and low (EuroSCORE II≤4%) in 48%. TAVI was preferred in 71% of patients, SAVR in 19% and medical treatment in 10%. The choice of TAVI over SAVR was associated with older age (P<0.0001) and a higher EuroSCORE II (P=0.008). However, the weight of EuroSCORE II in therapeutic decision making markedly decreased after the age of 80 years. Indeed, 77% of patients aged ≥ 80 years were referred for TAVI, despite a low estimated surgical risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of risk scores depends strongly on age, and decreases considerably after 80 years, most patients being referred for TAVI, independent of their estimated surgical risk. Despite medical advancements, 10% of patients were still denied any intervention.