An SIER model to estimate optimal transmission rate and initial parameters of COVD-19 dynamic in Sri Lanka

Modeling the competitive transmission of the Omicron strain and Delta strain of COVID-19

Since November 2021, there have been cases of COVID-19's Omicron strain spreading in competition with Delta strains in many parts of the world. To explore how these two strains developed in this competitive spread, a new compartmentalized model was established. First, we analyzed the fundamental properties of the model, obtained the expression of the basic reproduction number, proved the local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Then by means of the cubic spline interpolation method, we obtained the data of new Omicron and Delta cases in the United States of new cases starting from December 8, 2021, to February 12, 2022. Using the weighted nonlinear least squares estimation method, we fitted six time series (cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative deaths, new cases, new deaths, new Omicron cases, and new Delta cases), got estimates of the unknown parameters, and obtained an approximation of the basic reproduction number in the United States during this time period as R 0 ≈ 1.5165 . Finally, each control strategy was evaluated by cost-effectiveness analysis to obtain the optimal control strategy under different perspectives. The results not only show the competitive transmission characteristics of the new strain and existing strain, but also provide scientific suggestions for effectively controlling the spread of these strains.

Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain

Omicron, a mutant strain of COVID-19, has been sweeping the world since November 2021. A major characteristic of Omicron transmission is that it is less harmful to healthy adults, but more dangerous for people with underlying disease, the elderly, or children. To simulate the spread of Omicron in the population, we developed a new 9-dimensional mathematical model with high-risk and low-risk exposures. Then we analyzed its dynamic properties and obtain the basic reproduction numberR 0 . With the data of confirmed cases from March 1, 2022 published on the official website of Shanghai, China, we used the weighted nonlinear least square estimation method to estimate the parameters, and get the basic reproduction numberR 0 ≈ 1 . 5118 . Finally, we considered three control measures (isolation, detection and treatment), and studied the optimal control strategy and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model. The control strategy G is determined to be the optimal control strategy from the purpose of making fewer people infected. In strategy G, the three human control measures contain six control variables, and the control strength of these variables needs to be varied according to the pattern shown in Figure 11, so that the number of infections can be minimized and the percentage of reduction of infections can reach more than 95%.

Modeling and optimal control of mutated COVID-19 (Delta strain) with imperfect vaccination

As people around the world work to stop the COVID-19 pandemic, mutated COVID-19 (Delta strain) that are more contagious are emerging in many places. How to develop effective and reasonable plans to prevent the spread of mutated COVID-19 is an important issue. In order to simulate the transmission of mutated COVID-19 (Delta strain) in China with a certain proportion of vaccination, we selected the epidemic situation in Jiangsu Province as a case study. To solve this problem, we develop a novel epidemic model with a vaccinated population. The basic properties of the model is analyzed, and the expression of the basic reproduction number R 0 is obtained. We collect data on the Delta strain epidemic in Jiangsu Province, China from July 20, to August 5, 2021. The weighted nonlinear least square estimation method is used to fit the daily asymptomatic infected people, common infected people and severe infected people. The estimated parameter values are obtained, the approximate values of the basic reproduction number are calculated R 0 ≈ 1.378 . Through the global sensitivity analysis, we identify some parameters that have a greater impact on the prevalence of the disease. Finally, according to the evaluation results of parameter influence, we consider three control measures (vaccination, isolation and nucleic acid testing) to control the spread of the disease. The results of the study found that the optimal control measure is to dynamically adjust the three control measures to achieve the lowest number of infections at the lowest cost. The research in this paper can not only enrich theoretical research on the transmission of COVID-19, but also provide reliable control suggestions for countries and regions experiencing mutated COVID-19 epidemics.

Modeling and dynamic analysis of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in China

Although novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) was widely spread in mainland China in early 2020, it was soon controlled. To study the impact of government interventions on the spread of disease during epidemics, a differential equation system is established to simulate the process of virus propagation in this paper. We first analyze its basic properties, basic reproduction number R 0 and existence of equilibria. Then we prove that the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is Globally Asymptotically Stable when R 0 is less than 1. Through the analysis of the daily epidemic data from January 10, 2020 to March 11, 2020, combined with the implementation of the national epidemic policy, we divide the whole process into three stages: the first stage (natural state), the second stage (isolation state), the third stage (isolation, detection and treatment). By using the weighted nonlinear least square method to fit the data of three stages, the parameters are obtained, and three basic reproduction numbers are calculated, which are:R 01 = 2.6735 ,R 02 = 0.85077 ,R 03 = 0.18249 . Sensitivity analysis of threshold parameters and corresponding graphical results were also performed to examine the relative importance of various model parameters to the spread and prevalence of COVID-19. Finally, we simulate the trend of three stages and verify the theory of Global Asymptotic Stability of DFE. The conclusion of this paper proves theoretically that the Chinese government's epidemic prevention measures are effective in the fight against the spread of COVID-19. This study can not only provide a reference for research methods to simulate COVID-19 transmission in other countries or regions, but also provide recommendations on COVID-19 prevention measures for them.