Numerical simulation of a Caputo fractional epidemic model for the novel coronavirus with the impact of environmental transmission☆

A bifurcation analysis and model of Covid-19 transmission dynamics with post-vaccination infection impact

SARS COV-2 (Covid-19) has imposed a monumental socio-economic burden worldwide, and its impact still lingers. We propose a deterministic model to describe the transmission dynamics of Covid-19, emphasizing the effects of vaccination on the prevailing epidemic. The proposed model incorporates current information on Covid-19, such as reinfection, waning of immunity derived from the vaccine, and infectiousness of the pre-symptomatic individuals into the disease dynamics. Moreover, the model analysis reveals that it exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, thus suggesting that driving the model reproduction number below unity may not suffice to drive the epidemic toward extinction. The model is fitted to real-life data to estimate values for some of the unknown parameters. In addition, the model epidemic threshold and equilibria are determined while the criteria for the stability of each equilibrium solution are established using the Metzler approach. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCCs) approaches to illustrate the impact of the various model parameters and explore the dependency of control reproduction number on its constituents parameters, which invariably gives insight on what needs to be done to contain the pandemic effectively. The foregoing notwithstanding, the contour plots of the control reproduction number concerning some of the salient parameters indicate that increasing vaccination coverage and decreasing vaccine waning rate would remarkably reduce the value of the reproduction number below unity, thus facilitating the possible elimination of the disease from the population. Finally, the model is solved numerically and simulated for different scenarios of disease outbreaks with the findings discussed.

A study on fractional tumor-immune interaction model related to lung cancer via generalized Laguerre polynomials

BACKGROUND

Cancer, a complex and deadly health concern today, is characterized by forming potentially malignant tumors or cancer cells. The dynamic interaction between these cells and their environment is crucial to the disease. Mathematical models can enhance our understanding of these interactions, helping us predict disease progression and treatment strategies.

METHODS

In this study, we develop a fractional tumor-immune interaction model specifically for lung cancer (FTIIM-LC). We present some definitions and significant results related to the Caputo operator. We employ the generalized Laguerre polynomials (GLPs) method to find the optimal solution for the FTIIM-LC model. We then conduct a numerical simulation and compare the results of our method with other techniques and real-world data.

RESULTS

We propose a FTIIM-LC model in this paper. The approximate solution for the proposed model is derived using a series of expansions in a new set of polynomials, the GLPs. To streamline the process, we integrate Lagrange multipliers, GLPs, and operational matrices of fractional and ordinary derivatives. We conduct a numerical simulation to study the effects of varying fractional orders and achieve the expected theoretical results.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study demonstrate that the optimization methods used can effectively predict and analyze complex phenomena. This innovative approach can also be applied to other nonlinear differential equations, such as the fractional Klein-Gordon equation, fractional diffusion-wave equation, breast cancer model, and fractional optimal control problems.