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Mirò Ò, Llorens P, Rosselló X, Gil V, Sánchez C, Jacob J, Herrero-Puente P, López-Diez MP, Llauger L, Romero R, Fuentes M, Tost J, Bibiano C, Alquézar-Arbé A, Martín-Mojarro E, Bueno H, Peacock F, Martin-Sanchez FJ, Pocock S. Impact of the MEESSI-AHF tool to guide disposition decision-making in patients with acute heart failure in the emergency department: a before-and-after study. Emerg Med J 2023; 41:42-50. [PMID: 37949639 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2023-213190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine the impact of risk stratification using the MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with acute heart failure) scale to guide disposition decision-making on the outcomes of ED patients with acute heart failure (AHF), and assess the adherence of emergency physicians to risk stratification recommendations. METHODS This was a prospective quasi-experimental study (before/after design) conducted in eight Spanish EDs which consecutively enrolled adult patients with AHF. In the pre-implementation stage, the admit/discharge decision was performed entirely based on emergency physician judgement. During the post-implementation phase, emergency physicians were advised to 'discharge' patients classified by the MEESSI-AHF scale as low risk and 'admit' patients classified as increased risk. Nonetheless, the final decision was left to treating emergency physicians. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were days alive and out of hospital, in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-discharge combined adverse event (ED revisit, hospitalisation or death). RESULTS The pre-implementation and post-implementation cohorts included 1589 and 1575 patients, respectively (median age 85 years, 56% females) with similar characteristics, and 30-day all-cause mortality was 9.4% and 9.7%, respectively (post-implementation HR=1.03, 95% CI=0.82 to 1.29). There were no differences in secondary outcomes or in the percentage of patients entirely managed in the ED without hospitalisation (direct discharge from the ED, 23.5% vs 24.4%, OR=1.05, 95% CI=0.89 to 1.24). Adjusted models did not change these results. Emergency physicians followed the MEESSI-AHF-based recommendation on patient disposition in 70.9% of cases (recommendation over-ruling: 29.1%). Physicians were more likely to over-rule the recommendation when 'discharge' was recommended (56.4%; main reason: need for hospitalisation for a second diagnosis) than when 'admit' was recommended (12.8%; main reason: no appreciation of severity of AHF decompensation by emergency physician), with an OR for over-ruling the 'discharge' compared with the 'admit' recommendation of 8.78 (95% CI=6.84 to 11.3). CONCLUSIONS Implementing the MEESSI-AHF risk stratification tool in the ED to guide disposition decision-making did not improve patient outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Òscar Mirò
- Emergency Department, Hospital Clínic, IDIBAPS, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Pere Llorens
- Emergency Department, Alicante General University Hospital, Alicante, Spain
| | - Xavier Rosselló
- Cardiology Department, Son Espases University Hospital, Palma, Spain
| | - Víctor Gil
- Emergency Department, Hospital Clínic, IDIBAPS, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carolina Sánchez
- Emergency Department, Clinic Barcelona Hospital University, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Javier Jacob
- Emergency Department, Bellvitge University Hospital, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain
| | | | | | - Lluis Llauger
- Emergency Department, Hospital Universitari de Vic, Vic, Spain
| | - Rodolfo Romero
- Emergency Department, Getafe University Hospital, Getafe, Spain
| | - Marta Fuentes
- Emergency Department, Hospital Universitario de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
| | - Josep Tost
- Urgencias, Consorci Sanitari de Terrassa, Terrassa, Spain
| | - Carlos Bibiano
- Emergency Department, Hospital Infanta Leonor, Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Héctor Bueno
- Cardiology Service, Gregorio Maranon General University Hospital, Madrid, Spain
| | - Frank Peacock
- Emergency Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | | | - Stuart Pocock
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Bobrowski D, Dorovenis A, Abdel-Qadir H, McNaughton CD, Alonzo R, Fang J, Austin PC, Udell JA, Jackevicius CA, Alter DA, Atzema CL, Bhatia RS, Booth GL, Ha ACT, Johnston S, Dhalla I, Kapral MK, Krumholz HM, Roifman I, Wijeysundera HC, Ko DT, Tu K, Ross HJ, Schull MJ, Lee DS. Association of neighbourhood-level material deprivation with adverse outcomes and processes of care among patients with heart failure in a single-payer healthcare system: A population-based cohort study. Eur J Heart Fail 2023; 25:2274-2286. [PMID: 37953731 DOI: 10.1002/ejhf.3090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Revised: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/14/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM We studied the association between neighbourhood material deprivation, a metric estimating inability to attain basic material needs, with outcomes and processes of care among incident heart failure patients in a universal healthcare system. METHODS AND RESULTS In a population-based retrospective study (2007-2019), we examined the association of material deprivation with 1-year all-cause mortality, cause-specific hospitalization, and 90-day processes of care. Using cause-specific hazards regression, we quantified the relative rate of events after multiple covariate adjustment, stratifying by age ≤65 or ≥66 years. Among 395 763 patients (median age 76 [interquartile range 66-84] years, 47% women), there was significant interaction between age and deprivation quintile for mortality/hospitalization outcomes (p ≤ 0.001). Younger residents (age ≤65 years) of the most versus least deprived neighbourhoods had higher hazards of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.29]) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 1.29 [95% CI 1.19-1.39]). Older individuals (≥66 years) in the most deprived neighbourhoods had significantly higher hazard of death (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.08-1.14]) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 1.13 [95% CI 1.09-1.18]) compared to the least deprived. The magnitude of the association between deprivation and outcomes was amplified in the younger compared to the older age group. More deprived individuals in both age groups had a lower hazard of cardiology visits and advanced cardiac imaging (all p < 0.001), while the most deprived of younger ages were less likely to undergo implantable cardioverter-defibrillator/cardiac resynchronization therapy-pacemaker implantation (p = 0.023), compared to the least deprived. CONCLUSION Patients with newly-diagnosed heart failure residing in the most deprived neighbourhoods had worse outcomes and reduced access to care than those less deprived.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Bobrowski
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Husam Abdel-Qadir
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Women's College Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Candace D McNaughton
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Rea Alonzo
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Jiming Fang
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Peter C Austin
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Jacob A Udell
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Women's College Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Cynthia A Jackevicius
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Western University of Health Sciences, Pomona, CA, USA
| | - David A Alter
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Clare L Atzema
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - R Sacha Bhatia
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Gillian L Booth
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Andrew C T Ha
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Sharon Johnston
- Departments of Family Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Institut du Savoir, Hôpital Montfort, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Irfan Dhalla
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Moira K Kapral
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Harlan M Krumholz
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Yale New Haven Hospital, New Haven, CT, USA
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Idan Roifman
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Harindra C Wijeysundera
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Dennis T Ko
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Karen Tu
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- North York General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Heather J Ross
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Michael J Schull
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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Foroutan F, Rayner DG, Ross HJ, Ehler T, Srivastava A, Shin S, Malik A, Benipal H, Yu C, Alexander Lau TH, Lee JG, Rocha R, Austin PC, Levy D, Ho JE, McMurray JJV, Zannad F, Tomlinson G, Spertus JA, Lee DS. Global Comparison of Readmission Rates for Patients With Heart Failure. J Am Coll Cardiol 2023; 82:430-444. [PMID: 37495280 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2023.05.040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heart failure (HF) readmission rates are low in some jurisdictions. However, international comparisons are lacking and could serve as a foundation for identifying regional patient management strategies that could be shared to improve outcomes. OBJECTIVES This study sought to summarize 30-day and 1-year all-cause readmission and mortality rates of hospitalized HF patients across countries and to explore potential differences in rates globally. METHODS We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis using MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL for observational reports on hospitalized adult HF patients at risk for readmission or mortality published between January 2010 and March 2021. We conducted a meta-analysis of proportions using a random-effects model, and sources of heterogeneity were evaluated with meta-regression. RESULTS In total, 24 papers reporting on 30-day and 23 papers on 1-year readmission were included. Of the 1.5 million individuals at risk, 13.2% (95% CI: 10.5%-16.1%) were readmitted within 30 days and 35.7% (95% CI: 27.1%-44.9%) within 1 year. A total of 33 papers reported on 30-day and 45 papers on 1-year mortality. Of the 1.5 million individuals hospitalized for HF, 7.6% (95% CI: 6.1%-9.3%) died within 30 days and 23.3% (95% CI: 20.8%-25.9%) died within 1 year. Substantial variation in risk across countries was unexplained by countries' gross domestic product, proportion of gross domestic product spent on health care, and Gini coefficient. CONCLUSIONS Globally, hospitalized HF patients exhibit high rates of readmission and mortality, and the variability in readmission rates was not explained by health care expenditure, risk of mortality, or comorbidities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Farid Foroutan
- Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Daniel G Rayner
- Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Heather J Ross
- Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tamara Ehler
- Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ananya Srivastava
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sheojung Shin
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Abdullah Malik
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Harsukh Benipal
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Clarissa Yu
- Faculty of Arts and Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Joshua G Lee
- Faculty of Medical Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Peter C Austin
- ICES (formerly Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Daniel Levy
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Jennifer E Ho
- Cardiovascular Institute and Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - John J V McMurray
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Faiez Zannad
- Clinical Investigation Centre (Inserm-CHU) and Academic Hospital (CHU), Nancy, France
| | - George Tomlinson
- Biostatistics Research Unit, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - John A Spertus
- St Luke's Mid-America Heart Institute, Kansas City, Missouri, USA
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; ICES (formerly Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
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5
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Austin DE, Lee DS, Wang CX, Ma S, Wang X, Porter J, Wang B. Comparison of machine learning and the regression-based EHMRG model for predicting early mortality in acute heart failure. Int J Cardiol 2022; 365:78-84. [PMID: 35868354 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2022.07.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2022] [Revised: 06/26/2022] [Accepted: 07/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although risk stratification of patients with acute decompensated heart failure (HF) is important, it is unknown whether machine learning (ML) or conventional statistical models are optimal. We developed ML algorithms to predict 7-day and 30-day mortality in patients with acute HF and compared these with an existing logistic regression model at the same timepoints. METHODS Patients presenting to one of 86 hospitals, who were either admitted to hospital or discharged home directly from the emergency department, were randomly selected using stratified random sampling. ML approaches, including neural networks, random forest, XGBoost, and the Lasso, were compared with a validated logistic regression model for discrimination and calibration. RESULTS Among 12,608 patients in our analysis, lasso regression (c-statistic 0.774; 95% CI, 0.743, 0.806) performed better than other ML models for 7-day mortality but did not outperform the baseline logistic regression model (0.794; 95% CI, 0.789, 0.800). For 30-day mortality, XGBoost performed better than other ML models (c-statistic 0.759; 95% CI; 0.740, 0.779), but was not significantly better than logistic regression (c-statistic 0.755; 95% CI, 0.750, 0.762). Logistic regression demonstrated better calibration at 7 days (calibration-in-the-large 0.017; 95% CI, -0.657, 0.692, and calibration slope 0.954; 95% CI,0.769, 1.139) and at 30 days (-0.026; 95% CI, -0.374, 0.322 and 0.964; 95% CI, 0.831, 1.098), and best Brier scores, compared to ML approaches. CONCLUSIONS Logistic regression was comparable to ML in discrimination, but was superior to ML algorithms in calibration overall. ML algorithms for prognosis should routinely report calibration metrics in addition to discrimination.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Douglas S Lee
- ICES, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; Peter Munk Cardiac Centre of University Health Network; Ted Roger Centre for Heart Research.
| | - Chloe X Wang
- ICES, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; Division of Vascular Surgery, University Health Network
| | - Shihao Ma
- ICES, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto; Vector Institute of Artificial Intelligence
| | - Xuesong Wang
- ICES, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences
| | - Joan Porter
- ICES, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences
| | - Bo Wang
- ICES, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; Peter Munk Cardiac Centre of University Health Network; Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto; Vector Institute of Artificial Intelligence; Division of Vascular Surgery, University Health Network; Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, University of Toronto, Canada
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