Failure of vital sign normalization is more strongly associated than single measures with mortality and outcomes

A clinical prediction model for safe early discharge of patients with an infection at the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Every hospital admission is associated with healthcare costs and a risk of adverse events. The need to identify patients who do not require hospitalization has emerged with the profound increase in hospitalization rates due to infectious diseases during the last decades, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify predictors of safe early discharge (SED) in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with a suspected infection meeting the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study on adult non-trauma patients with a suspected infection and at least two SIRS criteria. We defined SED as hospital discharge within 24 h (e.g. direct ED discharge or rapid ward discharge) without disease-related readmission to our hospital or death during the first seven days. A prediction model for SED was developed using multivariate logistic regression analysis and tested with k-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

We included 1381 patients, of whom 1027 (74.4 %) were hospitalized for longer than 24 h or re-admitted within seven days and 354 (25.6 %) met SED criteria. Parameters associated with SED were relatively young age, absence of comorbidities, living independently, yellow or green triage urgency, lack of ambulance transport or general practitioner referral, normal clinical impression scores, and risk scores (i.e., qSOFA, PIRO, MEDS, NEWS, and SIRS), normal vital sign measurements and absence of kidney and respiratory failure. The model performance metrics showed an area under the curve of 0.824. The validation showed a minimal drop in performance and indicated a good fit.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a model to identify patients with an infection at the ED who can be safely discharged early.

Association between Intraoperative Early Warning Score and Mortality and In-Hospital Stay in Lower Gastrointestinal Spontaneous Perforation

Background

Early warning scores (EWSs) can be easily calculated from physiological indices; however, the extent to which intraoperative EWSs and the corresponding changes are associated with patient prognosis is unknown. In this study, we investigated whether EWS and the corresponding time-related changes are associated with patient outcomes during the anesthetic management of lower gastrointestinal perforation.

Methods

This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study conducted at a tertiary emergency care center. Adult patients who underwent surgery for spontaneous lower gastrointestinal perforations between September 1, 2012, and December 31, 2019, were included. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) were calculated based on the intraoperative physiological indices, and the associations with in-hospital death and length of hospital stay were investigated.

Results

A total of 101 patients were analyzed. The median age was 70 years, and there were 11 cases of in-hospital death (mortality rate: 10.9%). There was a significant association between the intraoperative maximum NEWS and in-hospital death (odds ratio (OR): 1.60, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.32, p=0.013) and change from initial to maximum NEWS (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.07-2.40, p=0.023) in the crude analysis. However, when adjustments were made for confounding factors, no statistically significant associations were found. Other intraoperative EWS values and changes were not significantly associated with the investigated outcomes. The preoperative sepsis-related organ failure assessment score and the intraoperative base excess value were significantly associated with in-hospital death.

Conclusions

No clear association was observed between EWSs and corresponding changes and in-hospital death in cases of lower gastrointestinal perforation. The preoperative sepsis-related organ failure assessment score and intraoperative base excess value were significantly associated with in-hospital death.

Predicting patient decompensation from continuous physiologic monitoring in the emergency department

Anticipation of clinical decompensation is essential for effective emergency and critical care. In this study, we develop a multimodal machine learning approach to predict the onset of new vital sign abnormalities (tachycardia, hypotension, hypoxia) in ED patients with normal initial vital signs. Our method combines standard triage data (vital signs, demographics, chief complaint) with features derived from a brief period of continuous physiologic monitoring, extracted via both conventional signal processing and transformer-based deep learning on ECG and PPG waveforms. We study 19,847 adult ED visits, divided into training (75%), validation (12.5%), and a chronologically sequential held-out test set (12.5%). The best-performing models use a combination of engineered and transformer-derived features, predicting in a 90-minute window new tachycardia with AUROC of 0.836 (95% CI, 0.800-0.870), new hypotension with AUROC 0.802 (95% CI, 0.747-0.856), and new hypoxia with AUROC 0.713 (95% CI, 0.680-0.745), in all cases significantly outperforming models using only standard triage data. Salient features include vital sign trends, PPG perfusion index, and ECG waveforms. This approach could improve the triage of apparently stable patients and be applied continuously for the prediction of near-term clinical deterioration.

Prognostic value of serial score measurements of the national early warning score, the quick sequential organ failure assessment and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict clinical outcome in early sepsis

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Sepsis is a common and potentially lethal syndrome, and early recognition is critical to prevent deterioration. Yet, currently available scores to facilitate recognition of sepsis lack prognostic accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the optimal time-point to determine NEWS, qSOFA and SIRS for the prediction of clinical deterioration in early sepsis and to determine whether the change in these scores over time improves their prognostic accuracy.

DESIGN

Post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data.

SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

This study was performed in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary-care teaching hospital. Adult medical patients with (potential) sepsis were included.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

The primary outcome was clinical deterioration within 72 h after admission, defined as organ failure development, the composite outcome of ICU-admission and death. Secondary outcomes were the composite of ICU-admission/death and a rise in SOFA at least 2. Scores were calculated at the ED with 30-min intervals. ROC analyses were constructed to compare the prognostic accuracy of the scores.

RESULTS

In total, 1750 patients were included, of which 360 (20.6%) deteriorated and 79 (4.5%) went to the ICU or died within 72 h. The NEWS at triage (AUC, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59-0.65) had a higher accuracy than qSOFA (AUC, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63) and SIRS (AUC, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63) for predicting deterioration. The AUC of the NEWS at 1 h (0.65; 95% CI, 0.63-0.69) and 150 min after triage (0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68) was higher than the AUC of the NEWS at triage. The qSOFA had the highest AUC at 90 min after triage (0.62; 95% CI, 0.58-0.65), whereas the SIRS had the highest AUC at 60 min after triage (0.60; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63); both are not significantly different from triage. The NEWS had a better accuracy to predict ICU-admission/death <72 h compared with qSOFA (AUC difference, 0.092) and SIRS (AUC difference, 0.137). No differences were found for the prediction of a rise in SOFA at least 2 within 72 h between the scores. Patients with the largest improvement in any of the scores were more prone to deteriorate.

CONCLUSION

NEWS had a higher prognostic accuracy to predict deterioration compared with SIRS and qSOFA; the highest accuracy was reached at 1 h after triage.

A Retrospective Cohort Study Evaluating the Use of the Modified Early Warning Score to Improve Outcome Prediction in Neurosurgical Patients

Introduction

The modified early warning score (mEWS) has been used to identify decompensating patients in critical care settings, potentially leading to better outcomes and safer, more cost-effective patient care. We examined whether the admission or maximum mEWS of neurosurgical patients was associated with outcomes and total patient costs across neurosurgical procedures.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included all patients hospitalized at a quaternary care hospital for neurosurgery procedures during 2019. mEWS were automatically generated during a patient’s hospitalization from data available in the electronic medical record. Primary and secondary outcome measures were the first mEWS at admission, maximum mEWS during hospitalization, length of stay (LOS), discharge disposition, mortality, cost of hospitalization, and patient biomarkers (i.e., white blood cell count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin).

Results

In 1,408 patients evaluated, a mean first mEWS of 0.5 ± 0.9 (median: 0) and maximum mEWS of 2.6 ± 1.4 (median: 2) were observed. The maximum mEWS was achieved on average one day (median = 0 days) after admission and correlated with other biomarkers (p < 0.0001). Scores correlated with continuous outcomes (i.e., LOS and cost) distinctly based on disease types. Multivariate analysis showed that the maximum mEWS was associated with longer stay (OR = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.6-1.96, p = 0.0001), worse disposition (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.71-0.95, p = 0.0001), higher mortality (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.3-2.1, p = 0.0001), and greater cost (OR = 1.2, 95% CI = 1.1-1.3, p = 0.001). Machine learning algorithms suggested that logistic regression, naïve Bayes, and neural networks were most predictive of outcomes.

Conclusion

mEWS was associated with outcomes in neurosurgical patients and may be clinically useful. The composite score could be integrated with other clinical factors and was associated with LOS, discharge disposition, mortality, and patient cost. mEWS also could be used early during a patient's admission to stratify risk. Increase in mEWS scores correlated with the outcome to a different degree in distinct patient/disease types. These results show the potential of the mEWS to predict outcomes in neurosurgical patients and suggest that it could be incorporated into clinical decision-making and/or monitoring of neurosurgical patients during admission. However, further studies and refinement of mEWS are needed to better integrate it into patient care.

The Association of Modifiable Postresuscitation Management and Annual Case Volume With Survival After Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

It is not know if hospital-level extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) case volume, or postcannulation clinical management associate with survival outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To describe variation in postresuscitation management practices, and annual hospital-level case volume, for patients who receive ECPR and to determine associations between these management practices and hospital survival.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study using case-mix adjusted survival analysis.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients greater than or equal to 18 years old who received ECPR from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry from 2008 to 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Generalized estimating equation logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with hospital survival, accounting for clustering by center. Factors analyzed included specific clinical management interventions after starting extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) including coronary angiography, mechanical unloading of the left ventricle on ECMO (with additional placement of a peripheral ventricular assist device, intra-aortic balloon pump, or surgical vent), placement of an arterial perfusion catheter distal to the arterial return cannula (to mitigate leg ischemia); potentially modifiable on-ECMO hemodynamics (arterial pulsatility, mean arterial pressure, ECMO flow); plus hospital-level annual case volume for adult ECPR.

RESULTS

Case-mix adjusted patient-level management practices varied widely across individual hospitals. We analyzed 7,488 adults (29% survival); median age 55 (interquartile range, 44-64), 68% of whom were male. Adjusted hospital survival on ECMO was associated with mechanical unloading of the left ventricle (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.08-1.55; p = 0.005), performance of coronary angiography (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.11- 1.61; p = 0.002), and placement of an arterial perfusion catheter distal to the return cannula (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.05-1.84; p = 0.022). Survival varied by 44% across hospitals after case-mix adjustment and was higher at centers that perform more than 12 ECPR cases/yr (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.04-1.45; p = 0.015) versus medium- and low-volume centers.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Modifiable ECMO management strategies and annual case volume vary across hospitals, appear to be associated with survival and should be the focus of future research to test if these hypothesis-generating associations are causal in nature.

Management of respiratory distress following prehospital implementation of noninvasive ventilation in a physician-staffed emergency medical service: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is recognized as first line ventilatory support for the management of acute pulmonary edema (APE) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. We aimed to study the prehospital management of patients in acute respiratory distress with an indication for NIV and whether they received it or not.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients ≥18 years old who were cared for acute respiratory distress in a prehospital setting. Indications for NIV were oxygen saturation (SpO₂) <90% and/or respiratory rate (RR) >25/min with a presumptive diagnosis of APE or COPD exacerbation. Study population characteristics, initial and at hospital vital signs, presumptive and definitive diagnosis were analyzed. For patients who received NIV, dyspnea level was evaluated with a dyspnea verbal ordinal scale (D-VOS, 0-10) and arterial blood gas (ABG) values were obtained at hospital arrival.

RESULTS

Among the 187 consecutive patients included in the study, most (n = 105, 56%) had experienced APE or COPD exacerbation, and 56 (30%) received NIV. In comparison with patients without NIV, those treated with NIV had a higher initial RR (35 ± 8/min vs 29 ± 10/min, p < 0.0001) and a lower SpO₂ (79 ± 10 vs 88 ± 11, p < 0.0001). The level of dyspnea was significantly reduced for patients treated with NIV (on-scene D-VOS 8.4 ± 1.7 vs 4.4 ± 1.8 at admission, p < 0.0001). Among the 131 patients not treated with NIV, 41 (31%) had an indication. In the latter group, initial SpO₂ was 80 ± 10% in the NIV group versus 86 ± 11% in the non-NIV group (p = 0.0006). NIV was interrupted in 9 (16%) patients due to either discomfort (n = 5), technical problem (n = 2), persistent desaturation (n = 1), or vomiting (n = 1).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the prehospital management of patients who present with acute respiratory distress and an indication for NIV. NIV was started on clinically more severe patients, even if predefined criteria to start NIV were present. NIV allows to improve vital signs and D-VOS in those patients. A prospective study could further elucidate why patients with a suspected diagnosis of APE and COPD are not treated with NIV, as well as the clinical impact of the different strategies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was approved by our institutional ethical committee ( CER-VD 2020-01363 ).

Short-term outcome and characteristics of critical care for nontrauma patients in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Emergency medical care for critically ill nontrauma patients (CINT) varies between different emergency departments (ED) and healthcare systems, while resuscitation of trauma patients is always performed within the ED. In many ED CINT are treated and stabilized while in many German smaller hospitals CINT are transferred directly to the intensive care unit (ICU) without performing critical care measures in the ED. Little is known about the resuscitation room management of CINT regarding patient characteristics and outcome although bigger hospitals perform ED resuscitation of CINT in routine care. Against this background we conducted this retrospective analysis of CINT treated by an ED resuscitation room concept in a German 756 bed teaching hospital.

METHODS

The collective of CINT treated within the ED resuscitation room (1 October 2018 to 31 March 2019) was analyzed after ethical approval. After each resuscitation room operation, the team leader filled out a standardized paper-based questionnaire and qualified the patient as a resuscitation room patient this way. Only patients who underwent invasive procedures and were admitted to ICU or died in the ED were included. Patient characteristics, performed critical care measures, short-term outcomes and the comparison of admission characteristics between survivors and non-survivors were evaluated. Additionally, the accordance of ED admission diagnoses and discharge diagnoses were analyzed.

RESULTS

Overall, 243 of 19,854 ED patients (1.22%) were treated in the resuscitation room. After exclusion of trauma patients, 193 (0.97%) CINT were included. Overall mortality was 29% (n = 56), 24‑h mortality was 13% (n = 25). Patient characteristics (vital signs, blood gas analysis) differed significantly between survivors and nonsurvivors except for respiratory rate and pain scale. An excerpt of conducted resuscitation room measures was as follows: arterial line n = 78 (40%); noninvasive ventilation n = 60 (31%); endotracheal intubation n = 56 (29%); cardiopulmonary resuscitation n = 19 (10%), central venous line n = 8 (4%). The number of conducted measures differed between survivors and nonsurvivors (median and interquartile range, IQR): 4 (IQR 2) vs. 4 (IQR 3) p = 0.0453. The length of ED stay was 148.2 ± 202.7 min until the patient was admitted to an ICU or died within the ED. ED admission diagnoses matched with hospital discharge diagnoses in 78%.

CONCLUSION

The observed mortality was high and was comparable to patient collectives with septic shock. Nonsurvivors showed significantly more impaired vital parameters and blood gas analysis parameters. Vital parameters together with blood gas analysis might enable ED risk stratification of CINT. Resuscitation room management enables immediate stabilization and diagnostic work-up of CINT even when no ICU bed is available. Furthermore, optimal allocation to specialized ICUs can probably be enabled more accurately after a first diagnostic work-up; however, although a first diagnostic work-up including laboratory tests and computed tomography in many cases was performed, ED admission and hospital discharge diagnoses matched only in 78%.

The comparative ability of commonly used disease severity scores to predict death or a requirement for ICU care in patients hospitalised with possible sepsis in Yangon, Myanmar

OBJECTIVES

To determine the comparative prognostic utility of commonly used disease prediction scores in adults with presumed community-acquired sepsis in a resource-limited tropical setting.

METHODS

This prospective, observational study was performed on the medical ward of a tertiary-referral hospital in Yangon, Myanmar. The ability of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), quick NEWS (qNEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores to predict a complicated inpatient course (death or requirement for intensive care unit (ICU) support) in patients with two or more systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was determined.

RESULTS

Among the 509 patients, 30 (6%) were HIV-seropositive. The most commonly confirmed diagnoses were tuberculosis (30/509, 5.9%) and measles (26/509, 5.1%). Overall, 75/509 (14.7%) died or required ICU support. All the scores except the qSOFA score, which was inferior, had a similar ability to predict a complicated inpatient course.

CONCLUSIONS

In this resource-limited tropical setting, disease severity scores calculated at presentation using only vital signs-such as the NEWS2 score-identified high-risk sepsis patient as well as the SOFA score, which is calculated at 24 h and which also requires laboratory data. Use of these simple clinical scores can be used to facilitate recognition of the high-risk patient and to optimise the use of finite resources.

Prognostic Value of Severity Score Change for Septic Shock in the Emergency Room

The vital signs or laboratory test results of sepsis patients may change before clinical deterioration. This study examined the differences in prognostic performance when systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), quick SOFA (qSOFA) scores, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and lactate levels were repeatedly measured. Scores were obtained at arrival to triage, 1 h after fluid resuscitation, 1 h after vasopressor prescription, and before leaving the emergency room (ER) in 165 patients with septic shock. The relationships between score changes and in-hospital mortality, mechanical ventilation, admission to the intensive care unit, and mortality within seven days were compared using areas under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs). Scores measured before leaving the ER had the highest AUROCs across all variables (SIRS score 0.827 [0.737–0.917], qSOFA score 0.754 [0.627–0.838], NEWS 0.888 [0.826–0.950], SOFA score 0.835 [0.766–0.904], and lactate 0.872 [0.805–0.939]). When combined, SIRS + lactate (0.882 [0.804–0.960]), qSOFA + lactate (0.872 [0.808–0.935]), NEWS + lactate (0.909 [0.855–0.963]), and SOFA + lactate (0.885 [0.832–0.939]) showed improved AUROCs. In patients with septic shock, scoring systems show better predictive performances at the timepoints reflecting changes in vital signs and laboratory test results than at the time of arrival, and combining them with lactate values increases their predictive powers.