Modeling the regional spread and control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci

Improving mathematical modeling of interventions to prevent healthcare-associated infections by interrupting transmission or pathogens: How common modeling assumptions about colonized individuals impact intervention effectiveness estimates

Mathematical models are used to gauge the impact of interventions for healthcare-associated infections. As with any analytic method, such models require many assumptions. Two common assumptions are that asymptomatically colonized individuals are more likely to be hospitalized and that they spend longer in the hospital per admission because of their colonization status. These assumptions have no biological basis and could impact the estimated effects of interventions in unintended ways. Therefore, we developed a model of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus transmission to explicitly evaluate the impact of these assumptions. We found that assuming that asymptomatically colonized individuals were more likely to be admitted to the hospital or spend longer in the hospital than uncolonized individuals biased results compared to a more realistic model that did not make either assumption. Results were heavily biased when estimating the impact of an intervention that directly reduced transmission in a hospital. In contrast, results were moderately biased when estimating the impact of an intervention that decolonized hospital patients. Our findings can inform choices modelers face when constructing models of healthcare-associated infection interventions and thereby improve their validity.

Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci: Epidemiology, Infection Prevention, and Control

Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) is a pathogen of growing concern due to increasing development of antibiotic resistance, increasing length of hospitalizations and excess mortality. The utility of some infection control practices are debatable, as newer developments in infection prevention strategies continued to be discovered. This article summarizes the significance of VRE and VRE transmission, along with highlighting key changes in infection control practices within the past 5 years.

Modeling Interventions to Reduce the Spread of Multidrug-Resistant Organisms Between Health Care Facilities in a Region

IMPORTANCE

Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) can spread across health care facilities in a region. Because of limited resources, certain interventions can be implemented in only some facilities; thus, decision-makers need to evaluate which interventions may be best to implement.

OBJECTIVE

To identify a group of target facilities and assess which MDRO intervention would be best to implement in the Shared Healthcare Intervention to Eliminate Life-threatening Dissemination of MDROs in Orange County, a large regional public health collaborative in Orange County, California.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An agent-based model of health care facilities was developed in 2016 to simulate the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) for 10 years starting in 2010 and to simulate the use of various MDRO interventions for 3 years starting in 2017. All health care facilities (23 hospitals, 5 long-term acute care hospitals, and 74 nursing homes) serving adult inpatients in Orange County, California, were included, and 42 target facilities were identified via network analyses.

EXPOSURES

Increasing contact precaution effectiveness, increasing interfacility communication about patients' MDRO status, and performing decolonization using antiseptic bathing soap and a nasal product in a specific group of target facilities.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

MRSA and CRE prevalence and number of new carriers (ie, transmission events).

RESULTS

Compared with continuing infection control measures used in Orange County as of 2017, increasing contact precaution effectiveness from 40% to 64% in 42 target facilities yielded relative reductions of 0.8% (range, 0.5%-1.1%) in MRSA prevalence and 2.4% (range, 0.8%-4.6%) in CRE prevalence in health care facilities countywide after 3 years, averting 761 new MRSA transmission events (95% CI, 756-765 events) and 166 new CRE transmission events (95% CI, 158-174 events). Increasing interfacility communication of patients' MDRO status to 80% in these target facilities produced no changes in the prevalence or transmission of MRDOs. Implementing decolonization procedures (clearance probability: 39% in hospitals, 27% in long-term acute care facilities, and 3% in nursing homes) yielded a relative reduction of 23.7% (range, 23.5%-23.9%) in MRSA prevalence, averting 3515 new transmission events (95% CI, 3509-3521 events). Increasing the effectiveness of antiseptic bathing soap to 48% yielded a relative reduction of 39.9% (range, 38.5%-41.5%) in CRE prevalence, averting 1435 new transmission events (95% CI, 1427-1442 events).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study highlight the ways in which modeling can inform design of regional interventions and suggested that decolonization would be the best strategy for the Shared Healthcare Intervention to Eliminate Life-threatening Dissemination of MDROs in Orange County.

Comparison of criteria for determining appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in nursing homes

BACKGROUND

Measuring the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in nursing homes remains a challenge. The revised McGeer criteria, which are widely used to conduct infection surveillance in nursing homes, were not designed to assess antibiotic appropriateness. The Loeb criteria were explicitly designed for this purpose but are infrequently used outside investigational studies. The extent to which the revised McGeer and Loeb criteria overlap and can be used interchangeably for tracking antibiotic appropriateness in nursing homes remains insufficiently studied.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional chart review study in 5 Wisconsin nursing homes and applied the revised McGeer and Loeb criteria to all nursing home-initiated antibiotic treatment courses. Kappa (κ) statistics were employed to assess level of agreement overall and by treatment indications.

RESULTS

Overall, 734 eligible antibiotic courses were initiated in participating nursing homes during the study period. Of 734 antibiotic courses, 372 (51%) satisfied the Loeb criteria, while only 211 (29%) of 734 satisfied the revised McGeer criteria. Only 169 (23%) of 734 antibiotic courses satisfied both criteria, and the overall level of agreement between them was fair (κ = 0.35). When stratified by infection type, levels of agreement between the revised McGeer and Loeb criteria were moderate for urinary tract infections (κ = 0.45), fair for skin and soft-tissue infections (0.36), and slight for respiratory tract infections (0.17).

CONCLUSIONS

Agreement between the revised McGeer and Loeb criteria is limited, and nursing homes should employ the revised McGeer and Loeb criteria for their intended purposes. Studies to establish the best method for ongoing monitoring of antibiotic appropriateness in nursing homes are needed.

How to Choose Target Facilities in a Region to Implement Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae Control Measures

BACKGROUND

When trying to control regional spread of antibiotic-resistant pathogens such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), decision makers must choose the highest-yield facilities to target for interventions. The question is, with limited resources, how best to choose these facilities.

METHODS

Using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst-generated agent-based model of all Chicago metropolitan area inpatient facilities, we simulated the spread of CRE and different ways of choosing facilities to apply a prevention bundle (screening, chlorhexidine gluconate bathing, hand hygiene, geographic separation, and patient registry) to a resource-limited 1686 inpatient beds.

RESULTS

Randomly selecting facilities did not impact prevalence, but averted 620 new carriers and 175 infections, saving $6.3 million in total costs compared to no intervention. Selecting facilities by type (eg, long-term acute care hospitals) yielded a 16.1% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1960 cases and 558 infections, saving $62.4 million more than random selection. Choosing the largest facilities was better than random selection, but not better than by type. Selecting by considering connections to other facilities (ie, highest volume of discharge patients) yielded a 9.5% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1580 cases and 470 infections, and saving $51.6 million more than random selection. Selecting facilities using a combination of these metrics yielded the greatest reduction (19.0% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1840 cases and 554 infections, saving $59.6 million compared with random selection).

CONCLUSIONS

While choosing target facilities based on single metrics (eg, most inpatient beds, most connections to other facilities) achieved better control than randomly choosing facilities, more effective targeting occurred when considering how these and other factors (eg, patient length of stay, care for higher-risk patients) interacted as a system.

How Long-Term Acute Care Hospitals Can Play an Important Role in Controlling Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae in a Region: A Simulation Modeling Study

Typically, long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) have less experience in and incentives to implementing aggressive infection control for drug-resistant organisms such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) than acute care hospitals. Decision makers need to understand how implementing control measures in LTACHs can impact CRE spread regionwide. Using our Chicago metropolitan region agent-based model to simulate CRE spread and control, we estimated that a prevention bundle in only LTACHs decreased prevalence by a relative 4.6%-17.1%, averted 1,090-2,795 new carriers, 273-722 infections and 37-87 deaths over 3 years and saved $30.5-$69.1 million, compared with no CRE control measures. When LTACHs and intensive care units intervened, prevalence decreased by a relative 21.2%. Adding LTACHs averted an additional 1,995 carriers, 513 infections, and 62 deaths, and saved $47.6 million beyond implementation in intensive care units alone. Thus, LTACHs may be more important than other acute care settings for controlling CRE, and regional efforts to control drug-resistant organisms should start with LTACHs as a centerpiece.

An agent-based model to simulate the transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococci according different prevention and control measures

OBJECTIVE

Despite the existence of various levels of infection prevention and control (IPC) measures aimed at limiting the transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) in hospitals, these measures are sometimes difficult to implement. Using an agent-based model (ABM), we simulated the transmission of VRE within and between 3 care units according to different IPC measures.

METHODS

The ABM was modelled on short-stay medical wards, represented by 2 conventional care units and 1 intensive care unit. The scenarios consisted of the simulation of various compliance rates of caregivers with regard to hand hygiene (HH) in different contexts of IPC measures: (1) standard precautions for all patients, (2) additional contact precautions for VRE-carrier patients, (3) geographical cohorting of carrier patients, and (4) creation of an isolation unit with dedicated staff.

RESULTS

With <50% HH compliance, the dissemination of VRE was not adequately controlled. With 80% compliance for all patients (ie, standard precautions scenario), there were no secondary VRE cases in 50% of the simulations, which represented the best scenario. A more realistic rate, 60% HH compliance for all patients, revealed interesting results. Implementing an isolation unit was effective only if the level of HH compliance was low. Patient cohorting was less effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The present ABM showed that while contact precautions, geographic cohorting, and an isolation unit may represent good complements to standard precautions, they may theoretically not be necessary if HH is followed at a high level of compliance.

Simulation models for transmission of health care-associated infection: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Health care-associated infections (HAIs) are a global health burden because of their significant impact on patient health and health care systems. Mechanistic simulation modeling that captures the dynamics between patients, pathogens, and the environment is increasingly being used to improve understanding of epidemiological patterns of HAIs and to facilitate decisions on infection prevention and control (IPC). The purpose of this review is to present a systematic review to establish (1) how simulation models have been used to investigate HAIs and their mitigation and (2) how these models have evolved over time, as well as identify (3) gaps in their adoption and (4) useful directions for their future development.

METHODS

The review involved a systematic search and identification of studies using system dynamics, discrete event simulation, and agent-based model to study HAIs.

RESULTS

The complexity of simulation models developed for HAIs significantly increased but heavily concentrated on transmission dynamics of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the hospitals of high-income countries. Neither HAIs in other health care settings, the influence of contact networks within a health care facility, nor patient sharing and referring networks across health care settings were sufficiently understood.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review provides a broader overview of existing simulation models in HAIs to identify the gaps and to direct and facilitate further development of appropriate models in this emerging field.

Knowing More of the Iceberg: How Detecting a Greater Proportion of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Carriers Influences Transmission

BACKGROUND

Clinical testing detects a fraction of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) carriers. Detecting a greater proportion could lead to increased use of infection prevention and control measures but requires resources. Therefore, it is important to understand the impact of detecting increasing proportions of CRE carriers.

METHODS

We used our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst-generated agent-based model of adult inpatient healthcare facilities in Orange County, California, to explore the impact that detecting greater proportions of carriers has on the spread of CRE.

RESULTS

Detecting and placing 1 in 9 carriers on contact precautions increased the prevalence of CRE from 0% to 8.0% countywide over 10 years. Increasing the proportion of detected carriers from 1 in 9 up to 1 in 5 yielded linear reductions in transmission; at proportions >1 in 5, reductions were greater than linear. Transmission reductions did not occur for 1, 4, or 5 years, varying by facility type. With a contact precautions effectiveness of ≤70%, the detection level yielding nonlinear reductions remained unchanged; with an effectiveness of >80%, detecting only 1 in 5 carriers garnered large reductions in the number of new CRE carriers. Trends held when CRE was already present in the region.

CONCLUSION

Although detection of all carriers provided the most benefits for preventing new CRE carriers, if this is not feasible, it may be worthwhile to aim for detecting >1 in 5 carriers.

How Introducing a Registry With Automated Alerts for Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) May Help Control CRE Spread in a Region

BACKGROUND

Regions are considering the use of electronic registries to track patients who carry antibiotic-resistant bacteria, including carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Implementing such a registry can be challenging and requires time, effort, and resources; therefore, there is a need to better understand the potential impact.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model of all inpatient healthcare facilities (90 acute care hospitals, 9 long-term acute care hospitals, 351 skilled nursing facilities, and 12 ventilator-capable skilled nursing facilities) in the Chicago metropolitan area, surrounding communities, and patient flow using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst software platform. Scenarios explored the impact of a registry that tracked patients carrying CRE to help guide infection prevention and control.

RESULTS

When all Illinois facilities participated (n = 402), the registry reduced the number of new carriers by 11.7% and CRE prevalence by 7.6% over a 3-year period. When 75% of the largest Illinois facilities participated (n = 304), registry use resulted in a 11.6% relative reduction in new carriers (16.9% and 1.2% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 5.0% relative reduction in prevalence. When 50% participated (n = 201), there were 10.7% and 5.6% relative reductions in incident carriers and prevalence, respectively. When 25% participated (n = 101), there was a 9.1% relative reduction in incident carriers (20.4% and 1.6% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 2.8% relative reduction in prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing an extensively drug-resistant organism registry reduced CRE spread, even when only 25% of the largest Illinois facilities participated due to patient sharing. Nonparticipating facilities garnered benefits, with reductions in new carriers.

Discontinuing Contact Precautions for Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus (VRE) Is Associated With Rising VRE Bloodstream Infection Rates in Ontario Hospitals, 2009–2018: A Quasi-experimental Study

In Ontario, Canada, since 2012, some hospitals discontinued contact precautions for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Between 2009 and 2018, there was an associated rise in VRE bloodstream infections in hospitals where contact precautions were discontinued but not in hospitals that maintained contact precautions. These data suggest contact precautions are important for hospital VRE control programs.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens.

RESULTS

We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Mathematical models of infection transmission in healthcare settings: recent advances from the use of network structured data

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Mathematical modeling approaches have brought important contributions to the study of pathogen spread in healthcare settings over the last 20 years. Here, we conduct a comprehensive systematic review of mathematical models of disease transmission in healthcare settings and assess the application of contact and patient transfer network data over time and their impact on our understanding of transmission dynamics of infections.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recently, with the increasing availability of data on the structure of interindividual and interinstitution networks, models incorporating this type of information have been proposed, with the aim of providing more realistic predictions of disease transmission in healthcare settings. Models incorporating realistic data on individual or facility networks often remain limited to a few settings and a few pathogens (mostly methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus).

SUMMARY

To respond to the objectives of creating improved infection prevention and control measures and better understanding of healthcare-associated infections transmission dynamics, further innovations in data collection and parameter estimation in modeling is required.

A systems approach to obesity

Obesity has become a truly global epidemic, affecting all age groups, all populations, and countries of all income levels. To date, existing policies and interventions have not reversed these trends, suggesting that innovative approaches are needed to transform obesity prevention and control. There are a number of indications that the obesity epidemic is a systems problem, as opposed to a simple problem with a linear cause-and-effect relationship. What may be needed to successfully address obesity is an approach that considers the entire system when making any important decision, observation, or change. A systems approach to obesity prevention and control has many benefits, including the potential to further understand indirect effects or to test policies virtually before implementing them in the real world. Discussed here are 5 key efforts to implement a systems approach for obesity prevention: 1) utilize more global approaches; 2) bring new experts from disciplines that do not traditionally work with obesity to share experiences and ideas with obesity experts; 3) utilize systems methods, such as systems mapping and modeling; 4) modify and combine traditional approaches to achieve a stronger systems orientation; and 5) bridge existing gaps between research, education, policy, and action. This article also provides an example of how a systems approach has been used to convene a multidisciplinary team and conduct systems mapping and modeling as part of an obesity prevention program in Baltimore, Maryland.

Successful control of emerging vancomycin-resistant enterococci by territory-wide implementation of directly observed hand hygiene in patients in Hong Kong

With the emergence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) in our public hospitals, territory-wide implementation of directly observed hand hygiene before meals and medications for all conscious hospitalized patients reverted the rising VRE incidence of 16.5% per month (P < .001) to a reduction of -9.8% per month (P < .001). The outbreak rate reverted from an increasing trend of 10.5% per month (P < .001) to a decreasing trend of -13.3% per month (P < .001) between January 2011 and October 2015.

Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci: Epidemiology, Infection Prevention, and Control

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) infections have acquired prominence as a leading cause of health care-associated infections. Understanding VRE epidemiology, transmission modes in health care settings, risk factors for colonization, and infection is essential to prevention and control of VRE infections. Infection control strategies are pivotal in management of VRE infections and should be based on patient characteristics, hospital needs, and available resources. Hand hygiene is basic to decrease acquisition of VRE. The effectiveness of surveillance and contact precautions is variable and controversial in endemic settings, but important during VRE outbreak investigations and control. Environmental cleaning, chlorhexidine bathing, and antimicrobial stewardship are vital in VRE prevention and control.

The Potential Trajectory of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae, an Emerging Threat to Health-Care Facilities, and the Impact of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Toolkit

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), a group of pathogens resistant to most antibiotics and associated with high mortality, are a rising emerging public health threat. Current approaches to infection control and prevention have not been adequate to prevent spread. An important but unproven approach is to have hospitals in a region coordinate surveillance and infection control measures. Using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA) simulation model and detailed Orange County, California, patient-level data on adult inpatient hospital and nursing home admissions (2011-2012), we simulated the spread of CRE throughout Orange County health-care facilities under 3 scenarios: no specific control measures, facility-level infection control efforts (uncoordinated control measures), and a coordinated regional effort. Aggressive uncoordinated and coordinated approaches were highly similar, averting 2,976 and 2,789 CRE transmission events, respectively (72.2% and 77.0% of transmission events), by year 5. With moderate control measures, coordinated regional control resulted in 21.3% more averted cases (n = 408) than did uncoordinated control at year 5. Our model suggests that without increased infection control approaches, CRE would become endemic in nearly all Orange County health-care facilities within 10 years. While implementing the interventions in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's CRE toolkit would not completely stop the spread of CRE, it would cut its spread substantially, by half.

Beyond the Intensive Care Unit (ICU): Countywide Impact of Universal ICU Staphylococcus aureus Decolonization

A recent trial showed that universal decolonization in adult intensive care units (ICUs) resulted in greater reductions in all bloodstream infections and clinical isolates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) than either targeted decolonization or screening and isolation. Since regional health-care facilities are highly interconnected through patient-sharing, focusing on individual ICUs may miss the broader impact of decolonization. Using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst simulation model of all health-care facilities in Orange County, California, we evaluated the impact of chlorhexidine baths and mupirocin on all ICU admissions when universal decolonization was implemented for 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of ICU beds countywide (compared with screening and contact precautions). Direct benefits were substantial in ICUs implementing decolonization (a median 60% relative reduction in MRSA prevalence). When 100% of countywide ICU beds were decolonized, there were spillover effects in general wards, long-term acute-care facilities, and nursing homes resulting in median 8.0%, 3.0%, and 1.9% relative MRSA reductions at 1 year, respectively. MRSA prevalence decreased by a relative 3.2% countywide, with similar effects for methicillin-susceptible S. aureus. We showed that a large proportion of decolonization's benefits are missed when accounting only for ICU impact. Approximately 70% of the countywide cases of MRSA carriage averted after 1 year of universal ICU decolonization were outside the ICU.

Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

Modeling spread of KPC-producing bacteria in long-term acute care hospitals in the Chicago region, USA

OBJECTIVE

Prevalence of bla KPC-encoding Enterobacteriaceae (KPC) in Chicago long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) rose rapidly after the first recognition in 2007. We studied the epidemiology and transmission capacity of KPC in LTACHs and the effect of patient cohorting.

METHODS

Data were available from 4 Chicago LTACHs from June 2012 to June 2013 during a period of bundled interventions. These consisted of screening for KPC rectal carriage, daily chlorhexidine bathing, medical staff education, and 3 cohort strategies: a pure cohort (all KPC-positive patients on 1 floor), single rooms for KPC-positive patients, and a mixed cohort (all KPC-positive patients on 1 floor, supplemented with KPC-negative patients). A data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used to model the transmission process.

RESULTS

Average prevalence of KPC colonization was 29.3%. On admission, 18% of patients were colonized; the sensitivity of the screening process was 81%. The per admission reproduction number was 0.40. The number of acquisitions per 1,000 patient days was lowest in LTACHs with a pure cohort ward or single rooms for colonized patients compared with mixed-cohort wards, but 95% credible intervals overlapped.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of KPC in LTACHs is high, primarily due to high admission prevalence and the resultant impact of high colonization pressure on cross transmission. In this setting, with an intervention in place, patient-to-patient transmission is insufficient to maintain endemicity. Inclusion of a pure cohort or single rooms for KPC-positive patients in an intervention bundle seemed to limit transmission compared to use of a mixed cohort.

What should be considered if you decide to build your own mathematical model for predicting the development of bacterial resistance? Recommendations based on a systematic review of the literature

Acquired bacterial resistance is one of the causes of mortality and morbidity from infectious diseases. Mathematical modeling allows us to predict the spread of resistance and to some extent to control its dynamics. The purpose of this review was to examine existing mathematical models in order to understand the pros and cons of currently used approaches and to build our own model. During the analysis, seven articles on mathematical approaches to studying resistance that satisfied the inclusion/exclusion criteria were selected. All models were classified according to the approach used to study resistance in the presence of an antibiotic and were analyzed in terms of our research. Some models require modifications due to the specifics of the research. The plan for further work on model building is as follows: modify some models, according to our research, check all obtained models against our data, and select the optimal model or models with the best quality of prediction. After that we would be able to build a model for the development of resistance using the obtained results.

The spread and control of norovirus outbreaks among hospitals in a region: a simulation model

BACKGROUND

Because hospitals in a region are connected via patient sharing, a norovirus outbreak in one hospital may spread to others.

METHODS

We utilized our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst software to generate an agent-based model of all the acute care facilities in Orange County (OC), California and simulated various norovirus outbreaks in different locations, both with and without contact precautions.

RESULTS

At the lower end of norovirus reproductive rate (R0) estimates (1.64), an outbreak tended to remain confined to the originating hospital (≤6.1% probability of spread). However, at the higher end of R0 (3.74), an outbreak spread 4.1%-17.5% of the time to almost all other OC hospitals within 30 days, regardless of the originating hospital. Implementing contact precautions for all symptomatic cases reduced the probability of spread to other hospitals within 30 days and the total number of cases countywide, but not the number of other hospitals seeing norovirus cases.

CONCLUSIONS

A single norovirus outbreak can continue to percolate throughout a system of different hospitals for several months and appear as a series of unrelated outbreaks, highlighting the need for hospitals within a region to more aggressively and cooperatively track and control an initial outbreak.