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Liu L, Li Y, Song J, Chen Q, Li S, Mu H, Na J, Zhang R, Yu L, Sun W, Pan G. Current status of premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4: a population-based study in northeast China, 2004-2017. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1608. [PMID: 34470632 PMCID: PMC8411532 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11611-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and aim According to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, collectively referred to as NCD4) should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015. This remains a challenge for China. This study aimed to evaluate the current status and progress towards this target in Liaoning Province, one of the three provinces in northeast China. Methods We calculated the premature mortality rates (PMRs) per year and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) from NCD4 using mortality data between 2004 and 2017. The trend was analyzed in the whole population, as well as in subpopulations of gender (male/female) and inhabiting area (urban/rural). PMRs from NCD4 for 2030 were projected by fitting a linear regression based on the current trend, which was identified by a Joinpoint model. Findings In the whole population, only chronic respiratory diseases showed a significant decline (AAPC: − 6.5%, p < 0.05), while only cancer showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 1.3%, p < 0.05); taken together, NCD4 showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 0.6%, p < 0.05). In the subpopulations, while males showed a significant increase in NCD4 (AAPC: + 1.5%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: + 1.7%, p < 0.05), cancer (AAPC: + 1.8%, p < 0.05), and diabetes mellitus (AAPC: + 4.2%, p < 0.05), females showed a significant decline in NCD4 (AAPC: − 1.2%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: − 1.8%, p < 0.05), diabetes mellitus (AAPC: − 2.1%, p < 0.05), but showed a mild increase in cancer (AAPC: + 0.5%, p > 0.05). A comparative analysis of the projected PMRs for 2030 with the 2015 levels revealed that only chronic respiratory diseases are expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4, apart from in the urban male subpopulation. Conclusion Except for chronic respiratory diseases, NCD4 cannot be expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4 in the whole population of Liaoning Province. Under these circumstances, special attention should be paid to reducing the risks of cancer and providing preventative interventions for men.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Liu
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanxia Li
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Junmin Song
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Department of Gastroenterology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, 110004, People's Republic of China
| | - Qian Chen
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Research Center for Universal Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Shuang Li
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Huijuan Mu
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Na
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Rui Zhang
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Liya Yu
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Wei Sun
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Research Center for Universal Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Guowei Pan
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China. .,Research Center for Universal Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, 110122, China.
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