Augmenting the Unites States transplant registry with external mortality data: A moving target ripe for further improvement

A Transplant-Inclusive Value-Based Kidney Care Payment Model

In the United States, kidney care payment models are migrating toward value-based care (VBC) models incentivizing quality of care at lower cost. Current kidney VBC models will continue through 2026. We propose a future transplant-inclusive VBC (TIVBC) model designed to supplement current models focusing on patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The proposed TIVBC is structured as an episode-of-care model with risk-based reimbursement for "referral/evaluation/waitlisting" (REW, referencing kidney transplantation), "primary hospitalization to 180 days posttransplant," and "long-term graft survival." Challenges around organ acquisition costs, adjustments to quality metrics, and potential criticisms of the proposed model are discussed. We propose next steps in risk-adjustment and cost-prediction to develop as an end-to-end, TIVBC model.

Differential in Kidney Graft Years on the Basis of Solitary Kidney, Simultaneous Liver-Kidney, and Kidney-after-Liver Transplants

BACKGROUND

The number of simultaneous liver-kidney (SLK) transplants has significantly increased in the United States. There has also been an increase in kidney-after-liver transplants associated with 2017 policy revisions aimed to fairly allocate kidneys after livers. SLK and kidney-after-liver candidates are prioritized in allocation policy for kidney offers ahead of kidney-alone candidates.

METHODS

We compared kidney graft outcomes of kidney-alone transplant recipients with SLK and kidney-after-liver transplants using paired kidney models to mitigate differences among donor risk factors. We evaluated recipient characteristics between transplant types and calculated differential graft years using restricted mean survival estimates.

RESULTS

We evaluated 3053 paired donors to kidney-alone and SLK recipients and 516 paired donors to kidney-alone and kidney-after-liver recipients from August 2017 to August 2022. Kidney-alone recipients were younger, more likely on dialysis, and Black race. One-year and 3-year post-transplant kidney graft survival for kidney-alone recipients was 94% and 86% versus SLK recipients 89% and 80%, respectively, P < 0.001. One-year and 3-year kidney graft survival for kidney-alone recipients was 94% and 84% versus kidney-after-liver recipients 93% and 87%, respectively, P = 0.53. The additional kidney graft years for kidney-alone versus SLK transplants was 21 graft years/100 transplants (SEM=5.0) within 4 years post-transplantation, with no significant difference between kidney-after-liver and kidney-alone transplants.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 5-year period in the United States, SLK transplantation was associated with significantly lower kidney graft survival compared with paired kidney-alone transplants. Most differences in graft survival between SLK and kidney-alone transplants occurred within the first year post-transplantation. By contrast, kidney-after-liver transplants had comparable graft survival with paired kidney-alone transplants.