Usefulness of the CHA2DS2-VASc Score to Predict Mortality in Defibrillator Recipients

Prognostic value of CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting high SYNTAX score and in-hospital mortality for non-ST elevation myocardial infarction in patients without atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of preprocedural CHA2DS2-VASc [congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (doubled), diabetes mellitus, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74 years, female gender] score in predicting high SYNTAX (Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score and in-hospital mortality for non-atrial fibrillation (AF) patients presenting with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). The CHA2DS2-VASc score used to determine thromboembolic risks in AF was recently reported to predict major adverse clinical outcomes in patients with the acute coronary syndrome, irrespective of AF.

METHODS

A total of 906 patients with a diagnosis of NSTEMI who underwent coronary angiography were retrospectively enrolled and divided into three groups according to their SYNTAX scores (low, intermediate, and high). The CHA2DS2-VASc score of each patient was calculated.

RESULTS

SYNTAX score had a significant positive correlation with the CHA2DS2-VASc score (r=0.320; p<0.001) in the Spearman correlation analysis. The CHA2DS2-VASc score [Odds ratio, 1.445; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.268-1.648, p<0.001], left ventricular ejection fraction, creatinine, C-reactive protein, and high-density and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were demonstrated to be independent predictors of high SYNTAX score. The CHA2DS2-VASc score [Hazard ratio (HR), 1.867; 95% CI: 1.462-2.384; p<0.001], the SYNTAX score (HR, 1.049; p=0.003), and age (HR, 1.057; p=0.002) were independently associated with higher risk of in-hospital mortality in a multiple Cox-regression model. Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by the CHA2DS2-VASc score (<4 vs. ≥4) also showed that higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores were associated with higher in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In non-AF patients with NSTEMI, CHA2DS2-VASc and SYNTAX scores are useful for prognosis assessment and can be used to identify patients at higher risk for in-hospital mortality.

One-year mortality after implantable defibrillator implantation: do risk stratification models help improving clinical practice?

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to assess the available mortality risk stratification models for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator (CRT-D) patients.

METHODS

We conducted a review of mortality risk stratification models and tested their ability to improve prediction of 1-year survival after implant in a database of patients who received a remotely controlled ICD/CRT-D device during routine care and included in the independent Home Monitoring Expert Alliance registry.

RESULTS

We identified ten predicting models published in peer-reviewed journals between 2000 and 2021 (Parkash, PACE, MADIT, aCCI, CHA2DS2-VASc quartiles, CIDS, FADES, Sjoblom, AAACC, and MADIT-ICD non-arrhythmic mortality score) that could be tested in our database as based on common demographic, clinical, echocardiographic, electrocardiographic, and laboratory variables. Our cohort included 1,911 patients with left ventricular dysfunction (median age 71, 18.3% female) from sites not using any risk stratification score for systematic patient screening. Patients received an ICD (53.8%) or CRT-D (46.2%) between 2011 and 2017, after standard physician evaluation. There were 56 deaths within 1-year post-implant, with an all-cause mortality rate of 2.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-3.8%). Four predicting models (Parkash, MADIT, AAACC, and MADIT-ICD non-arrhythmic mortality score) were significantly associated with increased risk of 1-year mortality with hazard ratios ranging from 3.75 (CI, 1.31-10.7) to 6.53 (CI 1.52-28.0, p ≤ 0.014 for all four). Positive predictive values of 1-year mortality were below 25% for all models.

CONCLUSION

In our analysis, the models we tested conferred modest incremental predicting power to ordinary screening methods.

Does CHA2DS2-VASc score predict mortality in chronic kidney disease?

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Assessment of cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality in CKD patients is of particular importance. CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, diabetes, prior stroke, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, and sex) score was originally formulated to predict the annual thromboembolic risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). The calculation of R2CHADS2 and R2CHA2DS2VASc scores awarded an additional 2 points for CrCl < 60 mL/min and GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m². Recent studies have investigated whether CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS ± VASC scores could be used to predict CV or all-cause mortality in patients with CKD. CHA2DS2-VASc score was proven to be a significant predictor of CV and all-cause mortality in CKD patients, and a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with increased mortality. These findings are quite promising, and they may help physicians to identify high-risk groups in this population.

Risk stratification of cardiovascular complications using CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 scores in chronic atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Background The COMPASS (Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies) trial showed that rivaroxaban plus aspirin reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD). We explored whether CHA₂DS₂-VASc or CHADS₂ scores, well-validated tools for assessing risk of thromboembolic events in atrial fibrillation, can identify vascular patients at highest risk of recurrent events who may derive greatest benefits of treatment. Methods Predictive accuracies of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc and CHADS₂ scores for MACE, were assessed in this analysis of the COMPASS trial. Kaplan-Meier estimates of cumulative risk were used to compare the effects of rivaroxaban plus aspirin (n = 9152) with aspirin alone (n = 9126) according to risk scores. Results High CHA₂DS₂-VASc (6-9) or CHADS₂ (3-6) scores were associated with over three times greater absolute risk of MACE compared with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 1-2 or CHADS₂ score of 0. The effects of rivaroxaban plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone were consistent across CHA₂DS₂-VASc and CHADS₂ score categories for MACE, bleeding and net clinical benefit, with greatest reduction in MACE observed in patients treated for 30 months with highest CHADS₂ score (3-6) (hazard ratio = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.53-0.86, p = 0.0012, 25 events per 1000 patients prevented). Conclusion The CHA₂DS₂-VASc and CHADS₂ scores can be used in patients with chronic CAD and/or PAD to identify patients who are at highest risk of MACE. Those identified at highest risk by CHADS₂ scores had greatest benefit from dual pathway inhibition with rivaroxaban plus aspirin. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT01776424.

Relation of CHA2DS2VASC Score With Hemorrhagic Stroke and Mortality in Patients Undergoing Fibrinolytic Therapy for ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Hemorrhagic stroke (HS) is a feared complication of Fibrinolytic therapy (FT). Risk assessment scores may help in risk stratification to reduce this complication. Patients (admissions) ≥18 years with a primary diagnosis of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who received systemic thrombolysis were extracted from Nationwide Inpatient Sample database and stratified and compared based on CHA₂DS₂VASC score 0 to 3, 4 to 6, and 7 to 9 as low, intermediate and high risk, respectively. The primary outcomes of interest were HS and mortality. We performed logistic regression analysis with a composite of HS and mortality as the primary end point. Of the 917,307 admissions with a primary diagnosis of STEMI, 39,579 (4.3%) underwent FT. The median score was 3 (interquartile range 1 to 5). The rate of HS significantly increased in the risk category compared with the low and intermediate groups (0.5% and 0.6% vs 4.1%; p <0.001). Mortality increased with increasing risk category (3.8% vs 10.5% vs 20.7%; p <0.001). Compared with the low-risk group patients in the intermediate (odds ratio 2.11 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.56 to 2.85; p <0.001) and high risk groups (odds ratio 3.47 95% CI 1.68 to 7.2; p <0.001) were more likely to experience the composite end point of HS or inpatient mortality. CHA₂DS₂VASC score performed better at predicting mortality (area under curve 0.67, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.7; p = 0.014) than HS (area under curve 0.6 95% CI 0.52 to 0.69; p = 0.021). In conclusion, patients with high CHA₂DS₂VASC score (7 to 9) are at a higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke and death after FT for STEMI. CHA₂DS₂VASC score performed better at predicting mortality than hemorrhagic stroke in this cohort.