Infection in Hospitalized Cirrhosis Patients: Changing Epidemiology and Clinical Features

Identification of multiple complications as independent risk factors associated with 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality in hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis (HBC) is associated with severe complications and adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for the occurrence of multiple complications (three or more) in patients with HBC and to explore the effects of multiple complications on HBC prognosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, data from 121 HBC patients treated at Nanjing Second Hospital from February 2009 to November 2019 were analysed. The maximum follow-up period was 10.75 years, with a median of 5.75 years. Eight machine learning techniques were employed to construct predictive models, including C5.0, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), support vector machine (SVM), generalised linear model (GLM) and naive Bayes (NB), utilising variables such as medical history, demographics, clinical signs, and laboratory test results. Model performance was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, residual analysis, calibration curve analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The influence of multiple complications on HBC survival time was assessed via Kaplan‒Meier curve analysis. Furthermore, LASSO and univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in patients with HBC, followed by ROC, C-index, calibration curve, and DCA curve analyses of the constructed prognostic nomogram model. This study utilized bootstrap resampling for internal validation and employed the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database for external validation.

RESULTS

The GBDT model exhibited the highest area under the curve (AUC) and emerged as the optimal model for predicting the occurrence of multiple complications. The key predictive factors included posthospitalisation fever (PHF), body mass index (BMI), retinol binding protein (RBP), total bilirubin (TB) levels, and eosinophils (EOS). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with multiple complications had significantly worse OS than those with fewer complications. Additionally, multivariable Cox regression analysis, informed by least absolute shrinkage and LASSO selection, identified hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), multiple complications, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels as independent prognostic factors for OS. The prognostic model demonstrated 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS ROC AUCs of 0.802, 0.793, and 0.817, respectively. For the internal validation cohort, the corresponding AUC values were 0.797, 0.832, and 0.835. In contrast, the external validation cohort yielded a 1-year ROC AUC of 0.707. Calibration curves indicated good consistency of the model, and DCA demonstrated the model's clinical utility, showing high net benefits within certain threshold ranges. Compared with the univariable models, the multivariable ROC curves indicated higher AUC values for this prognostic model, and the model also possessed the best c-index.

CONCLUSION

The GBDT prediction model provides a reliable tool for the early identification of high-risk HBC patients prone to developing multiple complications. The concurrent occurrence of multiple complications is an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with HBC. The constructed prognostic model demonstrated remarkable predictive performance and clinical applicability, indicating its crucial role in enhancing patient outcomes through timely and targeted interventions.

Prudent Use of Blood Cultures for Hospitalized Patients With Cirrhosis

Background No reliable risk stratification method is available to guide the extent of infectious work-up among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. Therefore, we aimed to create a risk stratification method for obtaining blood cultures from hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project - National Readmission Database 2019. Adult patients who were not immunocompromised comprised the final cohort. The primary outcome was the incidence of bacteremia among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included length of hospital stay, inpatient mortality, and 30-day readmission rate among cirrhosis patients with and without bacteremia. After propensity score matching, the χ2 test was used to assess the primary outcome and inpatient mortality. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the length of hospital stay. Readmission rates were compared via survival analysis. Concomitant bacterial infection, cirrhosis causes, and complications were assessed as potential risk factors for bacteremia using binomial regression. Results The risk ratio (RR) of bacteremia was 1.66 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.55-1.78) among patients with cirrhosis compared to those without cirrhosis. A concomitant bacterial infection was found to have a strong association with bacteremia in patients with cirrhosis (RR: 3.3, 95% CI: 3.03-3.59). Among cirrhosis patients without concomitant bacterial infection, the incidence of bacteremia was 0.76% (<1%). Among the causes of cirrhosis, primary sclerosing cholangitis was found to have a strong association with bacteremia (RR: 3.88, 95% CI: 2.3-6.04, P < 0.001). Patients with cirrhosis who had bacteremia were hospitalized three days longer than those without bacteremia. There was no difference in inpatient mortality or 30-day readmission rates between cirrhotic patients with and without bacteremia. Conclusion This study suggests that, in the absence of another concomitant bacterial infection and primary sclerosing cholangitis, we can avoid unnecessary blood cultures among immunocompetent patients with cirrhosis. However, given some inherent limitations associated with the database (such as the unavailability of vitals or laboratory values), additional studies are needed to validate its findings.

Epidemiology of liver cirrhosis and associated complications: Current knowledge and future directions

Cirrhosis causes a heavy global burden. In this review, we summarized up-to-date epidemiological features of cirrhosis and its complications. Recent epidemiological studies reported an increase in the prevalence of cirrhosis in 2017 compared to in 1990 in both men and women, with 5.2 million cases of cirrhosis and chronic liver disease occurring in 2017. Cirrhosis caused 1.48 million deaths in 2019, an increase of 8.1% compared to 2017. Disability-adjusted life-years due to cirrhosis ranked 16th among all diseases and 7th in people aged 50-74 years in 2019. The global burden of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis is decreasing, while the burden of cirrhosis due to alcohol and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing rapidly. We described the current epidemiology of the major complications of cirrhosis, including ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, renal disorders, and infections. We also summarized the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis. In the future, NAFLD-related cirrhosis will likely become more common due to the prevalence of metabolic diseases such as obesity and diabetes, and the prevalence of alcohol-induced cirrhosis is increasing. This altered epidemiology should be clinically noted, and relevant interventions should be undertaken.