The validity of the VA surgical risk tool in predicting postoperative mortality among octogenarians

The VASQIP Calculator is a poor predictor of morbidity and mortality in octogenarian and nonagenarian veterans undergoing major lower extremity amputations

BACKGROUND

Morbidity and mortality for major (above the ankle) lower extremity amputation (LEA) is high in veteran patients and age is a predictor of mortality. The Veteran Affair Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) risk assessment tool has been validated for several operations, but not for elderly patients undergoing LEA. The present study interrogated the accuracy for the VASQIP calculator for a medium/high-risk operation in a high-risk veteran population (octogenarians and nonagenarians).

METHODS

Variables required from input for the VASQIP calculator were retrospectively obtained for 57 octogenarians and 11 nonagenarians submitting to LEA at our institution from (2009 to 2021). The six-outcome variables provided by the VASQIP calculator (30-d mortality; 180-d mortality; 30-day morbidity; 30-day SSI risk; probability of ICU stay; probability of hospital stay) were compared to observed morbidity and mortality. The accuracy of the calculator was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and reported by the area under the curve (AUC) as previously described.

RESULTS

In the 68 patients included in this analysis, the time to death from the last index operation was 422.0 ± 604.9 days for octogenarians and 65.6 ± 89.3 days for nonagenarians. Predicted vs. observed 30-d mortality for octogenarians and nonagenarians was 8.46 vs. 24.56 [AUC=0.739; 95% CI (0.581 to 0.898)] and 24.46 vs. 45.45 [AUC=0.600 (0.171 to 1.000); respectively]. Predicted vs. observed 180-d mortality for the same cohorts was 25.22 vs. 47.37 [AUC=0.578 (0.427 to 0.728)] and 45.34 vs. 90.91 [AUC=0.100 (0.000 to 0.286); respectively]. Thirty-day morbidity, 30-day SSI, probability of ICU and probability of in-hospital stay produced an AUC below 0.600 for all these outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The VASQIP risk calculator is a poor predictor of short-term outcomes in octogenarians and nonagenarians undergoing major LEA. Most octogenarian and nonagenarian veterans died within 1 year, and the mean survival for nonagenarians was less than 3 months after LEA. The decision for major LEA in octogenarian and nonagenarian veterans warrants informed discussion with the patient and family.

Assessing the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program Risk Calculator in Cholecystectomy

The Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) risk calculator has been validated for several operations but has not been assessed specifically for cholecystectomy. Our aim was to externally validate the VASQIP calculator's accuracy in predicting 30-day morbidity and mortality (M&M) for patients undergoing cholecystectomy. A retrospective review of patients undergoing cholecystectomy at the North Texas Veterans Affairs hospital was performed. The VASQIP risk calculator was used to determine predicted 30-day M&M, which was compared with actual M&M. The predictive accuracy of the Veterans Affairs risk calculator was assessed using the C-statistic and a graphical assessment of a locally weighted least squares regression smoother. Overall, 848 patients were included in the study. Actual M&M were 6.3 and 0.94 per cent, respectively, whereas predicted M&M were 6.0 and 0.54 per cent. The C-statistic was 0.75 for morbidity and 0.78 for mortality. In our analysis, the VASQIP risk calculator reasonably predicted 30-day M&M.

Percutaneous cholecystostomy: prognostic factors and comparison to cholecystectomy

BACKGROUND

Data regarding long-term outcomes following percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) are limited, and comparisons to cholecystectomy (CCY) are lacking. We hypothesized that chronic disease burden would predict 1-year mortality following PC, and that outcomes following PC and CCY would be similar when controlling for preprocedural risk factors.

METHODS

We performed a 10-year retrospective cohort analysis of patients with acute cholecystitis managed by PC (n = 114) or CCY (n = 234). Treatment response was assessed by systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria at PC/CCY and 72 h later. Logistic regression identified predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality following PC. PC and CCY patients were matched by age, Tokyo Guidelines (TG13) cholecystitis severity grade, and VASQIP calculator predicted mortality (n = 42/group).

RESULTS

The presence of SIRS at 72 h following PC was associated with 30-day mortality [OR 8.9 (95% CI 2.6-30)]. SIRS at 72 h was present in and 21.4% of all PC patients, significantly higher than unmatched CCY patients (4.7%, p = 0.048). Independent predictors of 1-year mortality following PC were DNR status [19.7 (2.1-186)], disseminated cancer [7.5 (2.1-26)], and congestive heart failure [3.9 (1.4-11)]. PC patients with none of these risk factors had 17.9% 90-day mortality and no deaths after 90 days; late deaths continued to occur among patients with DNR, CHF, or disseminated cancer. At baseline, PC patients had greater acute and chronic disease burden than CCY patients. After matching, PC and CCY patients had similar age (69 vs. 70 years), TG13 grade (2.4 vs. 2.4), and predicted 30-day mortality (5.5 vs. 6.8%). Matched PC patients had higher 30-day mortality (14.3 vs. 2.4%, p = 0.109) and 180-day mortality (28.6 vs. 7.1%, p = 0.048).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment response to PC predicted 30-day mortality; DNR status, and chronic diseases predicted 1-year mortality. Although the matching procedure did not eliminate selection bias, PC was associated with persistent systemic inflammation and higher long-term mortality than CCY.

Preoperative serum potassium predicts the clinical outcome after non-cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

Potassium disorders have been linked to adverse outcomes in various medical conditions. However, the association of preoperative serum potassium with postoperative outcome is not well established. We aimed to examine the association between preoperative potassium with a 30-day mortality and adverse cardiovascular event (MACE).

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study using a prospectively collected database of patients, undergoing surgical procedures from 1998 to 2013 in the VA Western New York Healthcare System, which are reported to the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). The patients were categorized into three groups based on their documented preoperative potassium concentrations. Hypokalemia was defined as serum potassium concentration <4 mmol/L and hyperkalemia was defined as serum potassium concentrations >5.5 mmol/L. The values within the range of 4.0-5.5 mmol/L were considered as normokalemia and used as the control group. Statistical analyses included Chi-square test, analysis of variance and multivariate logistic regression to estimate the risk of MACE within 30 days of surgery.

RESULTS

Study included 5959 veterans who underwent surgery between 1998 and 2013. The patients in the hyperkalemics group had lower kidney function compared to the other two groups. The frequency of MACE was 13.6% in hypokalemics and 21.9% in hyperkalemics that were both significantly higher than 4.9% in controls. In multivariate logistic regression the hazard risk (HR) ratios of MACE were (2.17, 95% CI 1.75-2.70) for hypokalemics and (3.23, 95% CI 2.10-4.95) for hyperkalemics when compared to normokalemic controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative hypokalemia and hyperkalemia are both independent predictors of MACE within 30 days.

Outcomes After Non-neurological Surgery in Patients With Parkinson's Disease: A Nationwide Matched Cohort Study

Patients with Parkinson disease (PD) were known to have increased risk of complications during hospitalization. The purpose of this study is to validate the global features of postoperative adverse outcomes for patients with PD.Using reimbursement claims from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study of 6455 patients with preoperative PD receiving major surgery during 2008 to 2012. With a propensity score matching procedure, 12,910 surgical patients without PD were selected for comparison. The adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 9 major postoperative complications and 30-day postoperative mortality associated with preoperative PD were calculated in the multivariate logistic regressions.Patients with PD had increased risk of postoperative pulmonary embolism (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.45-5.10), stroke (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.53-2.05), pneumonia (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.70-2.31), urinary tract infection (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.35-1.70), septicemia (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.37-1.73), acute renal failure (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.07-1.73), and mortality (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.06-1.98). The association between preoperative PD and postoperative adverse events was significant in both sexes and every age group. Low income, ≥65 years of age, surgery not in medical center, highest quartile of PD medication users, and more medical conditions worsen the risk of postoperative adverse events in patients with PD.This study showed increased postoperative complications and mortality in patients with PD. Our findings suggest that revision of postoperative care protocols for this population is urgently needed.