Model predicting the ypN0 status after good response to chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer

Development and Validation of a Radiomics Model Based on Lymph-Node Regression Grading After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE

The response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) varies among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), and the treatment response of lymph nodes (LNs) to nCRT is critical in implementing a watch-and-wait strategy. A robust predictive model may help personalize treatment plans to increase the chance that patients achieve a complete response. This study investigated whether radiomics features based on prenCRT magnetic resonance imaging nodes could predict treatment response in preoperative LARC LNs.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The study included 78 patients with clinical stage T3-T4, N1-2, and M0 rectal adenocarcinoma who received long-course neoadjuvant radiotherapy before surgery. Pathologists evaluated 243 LNs, of which 173 and 70 were assigned to training and validation cohorts, respectively. For each LN, 3641 radiomics features were extracted from the region of interest in high-resolution T2WI magnetic resonance imaging before nCRT. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used for feature selection and radiomics signature building. A prediction model based on multivariate logistic analysis, combining radiomics signature and selected LN morphologic characteristics, was developed and visualized by drawing a nomogram. The model's performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and calibration curves.

RESULTS

The radiomics signature consists of 5 selected features that were effectively discriminated within the training cohort (area under the curve [AUC], 0.908; 95% CI, 0.857%-0.958%) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.865; 95% CI, 0.757%-0.973%). The nomogram, which consisted of radiomics signature and LN morphologic characteristics (short-axis diameter and border contours), showed better calibration and discrimination in the training and validation cohorts (AUC, 0.925; 95% CI, 0.880%-0.969% and AUC, 0.918; 95% CI, 0.854%-0.983%, respectively). The decision curve analysis confirmed that the nomogram had the highest clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

The nodal-based radiomics model effectively predicts LNs treatment response in patients with LARC after nCRT, which could help personalize treatment plans and guide the implementation of the watch-and-wait approach in these patients.

Radiomics-Based Preoperative Prediction of Lymph Node Status Following Neoadjuvant Therapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background and Purpose: Lymph node status is a key factor for the recommendation of organ preservation for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) following neoadjuvant therapy but generally confirmed post-operation. This study aimed to preoperatively predict the lymph node status following neoadjuvant therapy using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiomic signature.

Materials and Methods: A total of 391 patients with LARC who underwent neoadjuvant therapy and TME were included, of which 261 and 130 patients were allocated to the primary cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. The tumor area, as determined by preoperative MRI, underwent radiomics analysis to build a radiomic signature related to lymph node status. Two radiologists reassessed the lymph node status on MRI. The radiomic signature and restaging results were included in a multivariate analysis to build a combined model for predicting the lymph node status. Stratified analyses were performed to test the predictive ability of the combined model in patients with post-therapeutic MRI T1-2 or T3-4 tumors, respectively.

Results: The combined model was built in the primary cohort, and predicted lymph node metastasis (LNM+) with an area under the curve of 0.818 and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.7% were considered in the validation cohort. Stratified analyses indicated that the combined model could predict LNM+ with a NPV of 100 and 87.8% in the post-therapeutic MRI T1-2 and T3-4 subgroups, respectively.

Conclusion: This study reveals the potential of radiomics as a predictor of lymph node status for patients with LARC following neoadjuvant therapy, especially for those with post-therapeutic MRI T1-2 tumors.