Model Comparison Tests to Determine Data Information Content

Forecasting and Uncertainty Quantification Using a Hybrid of Mechanistic and Non-mechanistic Models for an Age-Structured Population Model

In this paper, we present a new method for the prediction and uncertainty quantification of data-driven multivariate systems. Traditionally, either mechanistic or non-mechanistic modeling methodologies have been used for prediction; however, it is uncommon for the two to be incorporated together. We compare the forecast accuracy of mechanistic modeling, using Bayesian inference, a non-mechanistic modeling approach based on state space reconstruction, and a novel hybrid methodology composed of the two for an age-structured population data set. The data come from cannibalistic flour beetles, in which it is observed that the adults preying on the eggs and pupae result in non-equilibrium population dynamics. Uncertainty quantification methods for the hybrid models are outlined and illustrated for these data. We perform an analysis of the results from Bayesian inference for the mechanistic model and hybrid models to suggest reasons why hybrid modeling methodology may enable more accurate forecasts of multivariate systems than traditional approaches.

Modelling populations of Lygus hesperus on cotton fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California: the importance of statistical and mathematical model choice

Understanding the population dynamics of herbivorous insects is critical to developing and implementing effective pest control protocols. In the context of inverse problems, we explore the dynamic effects of pesticide treatments on Lygus hesperus, a common pest of cotton in the western United States. Fitting models to field data, we explore the topic of model selection for an appropriate mathematical model and corresponding statistical models, and use techniques including ANOVA-based model comparison tests and residual plot analysis to make the best selections. In addition we explore the topic of data information content: in this example, we are testing the question of whether data, as it is currently collected, can support time-dependent parameter estimation. Furthermore, we investigate the statistical assumptions often haphazardly made in the process of parameter estimation and consider the implications of unfounded assumptions.

Optimal design for parameter estimation in EEG problems in a 3D multilayered domain

The fundamental problem of collecting data in the ``best way'' in order to assure statistically efficient estimation of parameters is known as Optimal Experimental Design. Many inverse problems consist in selecting best parameter values of a given mathematical model based on fits to measured data. These are usually formulated as optimization problems and the accuracy of their solutions depends not only on the chosen optimization scheme but also on the given data. We consider an electromagnetic interrogation problem, specifically one arising in an electroencephalography (EEG) problem, of finding optimal number and locations for sensors for source identification in a 3D unit sphere from data on its boundary. In this effort we compare the use of the classical D-optimal criterion for observation points as opposed to that for a uniform observation mesh. We consider location and best number of sensors and report results based on statistical uncertainty analysis of the resulting estimated parameters.

Information content in data sets for a nucleated-polymerization model

We illustrate the use of statistical tools (asymptotic theories of standard error quantification using appropriate statistical models, bootstrapping, and model comparison techniques) in addition to sensitivity analysis that may be employed to determine the information content in data sets. We do this in the context of recent models [S. Prigent, A. Ballesta, F. Charles, N. Lenuzza, P. Gabriel, L.M. Tine, H. Rezaei, and M. Doumic, An efficient kinetic model for assemblies of amyloid fibrils and its application to polyglutamine aggregation, PLoS ONE 7 (2012), e43273. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043273.] for nucleated polymerization in proteins, about which very little is known regarding the underlying mechanisms; thus, the methodology we develop here may be of great help to experimentalists. We conclude that the investigated data sets will support with reasonable levels of uncertainty only the estimation of the parameters related to the early steps of the aggregation process.