Predicting enteric methane emission in lactating Holsteins based on reference methane data collected by the GreenFeed system

Combining short-term breath measurements to develop methane prediction equations from cow milk mid-infrared spectra

Predicting methane (CH4) emission from milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectra provides large amounts of data which is necessary for genomic selection. Recent prediction equations were developed using the GreenFeed system, which required averaging multiple CH4 measurements to obtain an accurate estimate, resulting in large data loss when animals unfrequently visit the GreenFeed. This study aimed to determine if calibrating equations on CH4 emissions corrected for diurnal variations or modeled throughout lactation would improve the accuracy of the predictions by reducing data loss compared with standard averaging methods used with GreenFeed data. The calibration dataset included 1 822 spectra from 235 cows (Holstein, Montbéliarde, and Abondance), and the validation dataset included 104 spectra from 46 (Holstein and Montbéliarde). The predictive ability of the equations calibrated on MIR spectra only was low to moderate (R2v = 0.22-0.36, RMSE = 57-70 g/d). Equations using CH4 averages that had been pre-corrected for diurnal variations tended to perform better, especially with respect to the error of prediction. Furthermore, pre-correcting CH4 values allowed to use all the data available without requiring a minimum number of spot measures at the GreenFeed device for calculating averages. This study provides advice for developing new prediction equations, in addition to a new set of equations based on a large and diverse population.

Approaches for predicting dairy cattle methane emissions: from traditional methods to machine learning

Measuring dairy cattle methane (CH4) emissions using traditional recording technologies is complicated and expensive. Prediction models, which estimate CH4 emissions based on proxy information, provide an accessible alternative. This review covers the different modeling approaches taken in the prediction of dairy cattle CH4 emissions and highlights their individual strengths and limitations. Following the guidelines set out by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA); Scopus, EBSCO, Web of Science, PubMed and PubAg were each queried for papers with titles that contained search terms related to a population of "Bovine," exposure of "Statistical Analysis or Machine Learning," and outcome of "Methane Emissions". The search was executed in December 2022 with no publication date range set. Eligible papers were those that investigated the prediction of CH4 emissions in dairy cattle via statistical or machine learning (ML) methods and were available in English. 299 papers were returned from the initial search, 55 of which, were eligible for inclusion in the discussion. Data from the 55 papers was synthesized by the CH4 emission prediction approach explored, including mechanistic modeling, empirical modeling, and machine learning. Mechanistic models were found to be highly accurate, yet they require difficult-to-obtain input data, which, if imprecise, can produce misleading results. Empirical models remain more versatile by comparison, yet suffer greatly when applied outside of their original developmental range. The prediction of CH4 emissions on commercial dairy farms can utilize any approach, however, the traits they use must be procurable in a commercial farm setting. Milk fatty acids (MFA) appear to be the most popular commercially accessible trait under investigation, however, MFA-based models have produced ambivalent results and should be consolidated before robust accuracies can be achieved. ML models provide a novel methodology for the prediction of dairy cattle CH4 emissions through a diverse range of advanced algorithms, and can facilitate the combination of heterogenous data types via hybridization or stacking techniques. In addition to this, they also offer the ability to improve dataset complexity through imputation strategies. These opportunities allow ML models to address the limitations faced by traditional prediction approaches, as well as enhance prediction on commercial farms.

Comparison of methane production, intensity, and yield throughout lactation in Holstein cows

Genetic selection to reduce methane (CH4) emissions from dairy cows is an attractive means of reducing the impact of agricultural production on climate change. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of such an approach by characterizing the interactions between CH4 and several traits of interest in dairy cows. We measured CH4, dry matter intake (DMI), fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM), body weight (BW), and body condition score (BCS) from 107 first- and second-parity Holstein cows from December 2019 to November 2021. Methane emissions were measured using a GreenFeed device and expressed in terms of production (MeP, in g/d), yield (MeY, in g/kg DMI), and intensity (MeI, in g/kg FPCM). Because of the limited number of cows, only animal parameters were estimated. Both MeP and MeI were moderately repeatable (>0.45), whereas MeY presented low repeatability, especially in early lactation. Mid lactation was the most stable and representative period of CH4 emissions throughout lactation, with animal correlations above 0.9. The average animal correlations of MeP with DMI, FPCM, and BW were 0.62, 0.48, and 0.36, respectively. The MeI was negatively correlated with FCPM (<-0.5) and DMI (>-0.25), and positively correlated with BW and BCS. The MeY presented stable and weakly positive correlations with the 4 other traits throughout lactation, with the exception of slightly negative animal correlations with FPCM and DMI after the 35th week. The MeP, MeI, and MeY were positively correlated at all lactation stages and, assuming animal and genetic correlations do not strongly differ, selection on one trait should lead to improvements in all. Overall, selection for MeI is probably not optimal as its change would result more from CH4 dilution in increased milk yield than from real decrease in methane emission. Instead, MeY is related to rumen function and is only weakly associated with DMI, FPCM, BW, and BCS; it thus appears to be the most promising CH4 trait for selection, provided that this would not deteriorate feed efficiency and that a system of large-scale phenotyping is developed. The MeP is easier to measure and thus may represent an acceptable alternative, although care would need to be taken to avoid undesirable changes in FPCM and BW.

Association of the chemical composition and nutritional value of forage resources in Colombia with methane emissions by enteric fermentation

In the livestock sector, strategies are available to mitigate gas emissions, such as methane, one of the alternatives that have shown potential correspondence to changes in the composition of the diet. The main aim of this study was to analyze the influence of methane emissions with data on enteric fermentation obtained from the Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) database and based on forecasts of methane emissions by enteric fermentation with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the application of statistical tests to identify the association between methane emissions from enteric fermentation and the variables of the chemical composition and nutritional value of forage resources in Colombia. The results reported positive correlations between methane emissions and the variables ash content, ethereal extract, neutral detergent fiber (NDF), and acid detergent fiber (ADF) and negative correlations between methane emissions and the variables percentage of unstructured carbohydrates, total digestible nutrients (TDN), digestibility of dry matter, metabolizable energy (MERuminants), net maintenance energy (NEm), net energy gain (NEg), and net lactation energy (NEI). The variables with the most significant influence on the reduction of methane emissions by enteric fermentation are the percentage of unstructured carbohydrates and the percentage of starch. In conclusion, the analysis of variance and the correlations between the chemical composition and the nutritive value of forage resources in Colombia help to understand the influence of diet variables on methane emissions of a particular family and with it in the application of strategies of mitigation.

Genomic evaluation methods to include intermediate correlated features such as high-throughput or omics phenotypes

Gene expression is supposed to be an intermediate between DNA and the phenotype, and it can be measured. Thus, for a trait, we may have intermediate measures, which are in fact a series of genetically controlled traits. Similarly, several traits may be measured or predicted using infrared spectra, accelerometers, and similar high-throughput measures that we will call "omics." Although these measurements have errors, many of them are heritable, and they may be more accurate or easier to record than the trait of interest. It is therefore important to develop methods to use intermediate measurements in selection. Here, we present methods and perspectives for selection based on massively recorded intermediate traits (omics). Recent developments allow a hierarchical integrated framework for prediction, in which a trait is partially controlled by omics. In addition, the omics measures are themselves partly controlled by genetics ("mediated breeding values") and partly by environment or residual factors. Thus, a part of the genetic determinism of a trait is mediated by omics, whereas the remaining part is not mediated, which results in "residual breeding values." In such a framework, genetic evaluations consist of 2 nested genomic BLUP-based models. In the first, the effect of omics on the trait (which can be seen as an improved estimate of the phenotype) and the residual breeding values are estimated. The second model extracts the mediated breeding values from the improved estimate of the phenotype, considering that omics themselves are heritable. The whole procedure is called GOBLUP (genomics omics BLUP) and it allows measures in only some individuals; that is, it is a "single-step"-like method. In this model, heritability is split into "mediated" and "not mediated" parts. This decomposition allows us to predict how accurate the omics measure of the trait would be compared with the direct measure. The ideal omics measure is heritable and explains a large part of the phenotypic variation of the trait. Ideally, this could be the case for some traits with low heritability. However, even if the omics measure explains only a small part of the phenotypic variation, when omics measurement themselves are heritable, the use of such a model would lead to more accurate selection. Expressions for upper bounds of reliability given omics measurements are also presented. More studies are needed to confirm the usefulness of omics or high-throughput prediction. Usefulness of the technology likely needs to be checked on a case-by-case basis.

Genetic Parameters for Methane Emissions Using Indirect Prediction of Methane and Its Association with Milk and Milk Composition Traits

The study covers milk yield and composition data for 17,468 Polish Holstein-Friesian cows. Methane production (g/lactation per cow, MP) for dairy cow were predicted using three methane production equations (MPE) that took into account: milk yield (MPE1), energy corrected milk (MPE2) and both milk protein concentration (%), and energy-corrected milk (MPE3). The average amounts of methane produced for each cow per lactation were 31,089 g, 46,487 g, and 51,768 g for MPE1, MPE2, and MPE3, respectively. Repeatability models were used to estimate genetic parameters for MP. The estimated heritabilities for MPE1, MPE2, and MPE3 were 0.30, 0.24, and 0.24, respectively, with a standard error of 0.01. High genetic correlations (>0.76) were obtained between methane and milk yield, protein, fat, lactose and dry matter contents in milk for MPE1, MPE2 and MPE3. Still, a moderate genetic correlation (0.34) was obtained between methane and fat content (MPE1); the standard error of the estimated genetic correlation was less than 0.05. The results of the current study indicate that genetic selection aimed to reduce MP in dairy cows is possible. However, such direct genetic selection could cause a negative genetic response in milk yield and composition due to negative genetic correlations between MP and milk yield and composition.