The Influence of the Availability Heuristic on Physicians in the Emergency Department

Dual process models of clinical reasoning: The central role of knowledge in diagnostic expertise

RATIONALE

Research on diagnostic reasoning has been conducted for fifty years or more. There is growing consensus that there are two distinct processes involved in human diagnostic reasoning: System 1, a rapid retrieval of possible diagnostic hypotheses, largely automatic and based to a large part on experiential knowledge, and System 2, a slower, analytical, conscious application of formal knowledge to arrive at a diagnostic conclusion. However, within this broad framework, controversy and disagreement abound. In particular, many authors have suggested that the root cause of diagnostic errors is cognitive biases originating in System 1 and propose that educating learners about the types of cognitive biases and their impact on diagnosis would have a major influence on error reduction.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

In the present paper, we take issue with these claims.

METHOD

We reviewed the literature to examine the extent to which this theoretical model is supported by the evidence.

RESULTS

We show that evidence derived from fundamental research in human cognition and studies in clinical medicine challenges the basic assumptions of this theory-that errors arise in System 1 processing as a consequence of cognitive biases, and are corrected by slow, deliberative analytical processing. We claim that, to the contrary, errors derive from both System 1 and System 2 reasoning, that they arise from lack of access to the appropriate knowledge, not from errors of processing, and that the two processes are not essential to the process of diagnostic reasoning.

CONCLUSIONS

The two processing modes are better understood as a consequence of the nature of the knowledge retrieved, not as independent processes.

Effect of patient death on referrals to cardiac specialists

In this paper, I examine how patient death affects referrals from referring physicians to cardiac surgeons. I use Medicare data to identify pairs of referring physicians and cardiac surgeons who experience a patient death after a major surgical procedure to examine how these events affect referrals. I construct counterfactuals for affected pairs using pairs that experience a patient death but five quarters in the future. I find that there is a significant decline in the number of referrals and probability of a referral from the referring physician to the cardiac surgeon after the patient's death.

How Clinicians Decide? Exploring Complexity of Antibiotic Prescribing in Emergency Departments Using Video-Reflexive Ethnography

Antibiotic overprescribing is a global issue that significantly contributes to increased antimicrobial resistance. Strengthening antimicrobial prescribing practices should be considered a priority. The emergency department (ED) represents a setting where antibiotics are frequently prescribed, but the determinants that influence prescribing choices are complex and multifaceted. We conducted an exploratory qualitative study to investigate the contextual factors that influence antibiotic prescribing choices among clinicians in the ED. The study employed video-reflexive ethnography (VRE) to capture prospective clinical decision-making in situated practice. Data collection involved fieldwork observations, video observations, and delivery of facilitated group reflexive sessions, where clinicians viewed a selection of recorded video snippets relating to antibiotic prescribing. Study was conducted across two EDs within the same health service in Australia. A total of 29 clinical conversations focusing on antibiotic prescribing were recorded. Additionally, 34 clinicians participated in group reflexive sessions. Thematic analysis from the transcribed data yielded four themes: 'importance of clinical judgment', 'usability of prescribing guidelines', 'managing patient expectations', and 'context-dependent disruptions'. Our findings provide insights into the challenges faced by clinicians in navigating complex ED environment, utilising electronic decision-support tools and engaging in discussions about patient treatments with senior clinicians. The findings also indicate that VRE is useful in visualising full complexity of the ED setting, and in initiating meaningful discussions among clinical teams. Integrating the use of VRE in everyday clinical settings can potentially facilitate the implementation of pragmatic solutions for delivering effective antibiotic stewardship practices.

Evidence for Anchoring Bias During Physician Decision-Making

Introduction

Cognitive biases are hypothesized to influence physician decision-making, but large-scale evidence consistent with their influence is limited. One such bias is anchoring bias, or the focus on a single-often initial-piece of information when making clinical decisions without sufficiently adjusting to later information.

Objective

To examine whether physicians were less likely to test patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) presenting to the emergency department (ED) with shortness of breath (SOB) for pulmonary embolism (PE) when the patient visit reason section, documented in triage before physicians see the patient, mentioned CHF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cross-sectional study of 2011 to 2018 national Veterans Affairs data, patients with CHF presenting with SOB in Veterans Affairs EDs were included in the analysis. Analyses were performed from July 2019 to January 2023.

Exposure

The patient visit reason section, documented in triage before physicians see the patient, mentions CHF.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were testing for PE (D-dimer, computed tomography scan of the chest with contrast, ventilation/perfusion scan, lower-extremity ultrasonography), time to PE testing (among those tested for PE), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) testing, acute PE diagnosed in the ED, and acute PE ultimately diagnosed (within 30 days of ED visit).

Results

The present sample included 108 019 patients (mean [SD] age, 71.9 [10.8] years; 2.5% female) with CHF presenting with SOB, 4.1% of whom had mention of CHF in the patient visit reason section of the triage documentation. Overall, 13.2% of patients received PE testing, on average within 76 minutes, 71.4% received BNP testing, 0.23% were diagnosed with acute PE in the ED, and 1.1% were ultimately diagnosed with acute PE. In adjusted analyses, mention of CHF was associated with a 4.6 percentage point (pp) reduction (95% CI, -5.7 to -3.5 pp) in PE testing, 15.5 more minutes (95% CI, 5.7-25.3 minutes) to PE testing, and 6.9 pp (95% CI, 4.3-9.4 pp) more BNP testing. Mention of CHF was associated with a 0.15 pp lower (95% CI, -0.23 to -0.08 pp) likelihood of PE diagnosis in the ED, although no significant association between the mention of CHF and ultimately diagnosed PE was observed (0.06 pp difference; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.36 pp).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study among patients with CHF presenting with SOB, physicians were less likely to test for PE when the patient visit reason that was documented before they saw the patient mentioned CHF. Physicians may anchor on such initial information in decision-making, which in this case was associated with delayed workup and diagnosis of PE.

Changes in Cancer Screening Rates Following a New Cancer Diagnosis in a Primary Care Patient Panel

IMPORTANCE

Although screenings for breast and colorectal cancer are widely recommended, patient screening rates vary greatly and remain below public health targets, and primary care physicians' (PCPs') counseling and referrals play critical roles in patients' use of cancer screenings. Recent adverse events may influence PCPs' decision-making, but it remains unknown whether cancer screening rates of PCPs' patients change after PCPs are exposed to new cancer diagnoses.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether PCPs' exposures to patients with new diagnoses of breast or colorectal cancer were associated with changes in screening rates for other patients subsequently visiting the affected PCPs.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used stacked difference-in-differences analyses of all-payer claims data for New Hampshire and Maine in 2009 to 2015. Participants were PCPs caring for patients. Data analysis was performed from June 2020 to May 2022.

EXPOSURES

New diagnosis of a PCP's patient with breast cancer or colorectal cancer.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Patients' breast and colorectal cancer screening rates within 1 year of a PCP visit.

RESULTS

The sample included 3158 PCPs (1819 male PCPs [57.6%]) caring for 1 920 189 patients (1 073 408 female patients [55.9%]; mean [SD] age, 41.0 [21.9] years) aged 18 to 64 years. During the study period, 898 PCPs had a patient with a new diagnosis of breast cancer and 370 PCPs had a patient with a new diagnosis of colorectal cancer. In the preexposure period, 68 837 female patients (37.3% of those visiting a PCP) underwent breast cancer screening within 1 year of the visit, and 13 137 patients (10.1% of those visiting a PCP) underwent colorectal cancer screening within 1 year of the visit. For both cancer types, after exposure to a new cancer diagnosis, PCPs' cancer screening rates displayed a rapid, sustained increase. Breast cancer screening rates increased by 4.5 percentage points (95% CI, 3.0-6.1 percentage points; P < .001). Colorectal cancer screening rates increased by 1.3 percentage points (95% CI, 0.3-2.2 percentage points; P = .01). Observed breast cancer screening increases were higher for male PCPs than for female PCPs (3.1 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.4-5.8 percentage points; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found significant, sustained increases in cancer screening rates for patients visiting PCPs recently exposed to new breast and colorectal cancer diagnoses. These findings suggest that PCPs may update practice patterns on the basis of recent patient diagnoses. Future work should assess whether salient cues to PCPs about patient diagnoses when clinically appropriate can improve screening practices.