Screening for esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients - Non-invasive methods

Utility of different Baveno criteria to detect esophageal varices irrespective of their size in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Esophageal varices (EVs), irrespective of size, are the most-reliable indicators of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). While non-invasive tools (NITs) accurately identify those with varices needing treatment (VNTs), their role in identifying any EVs in patients with cACLD is not known.

METHODS

Patients with cACLD with reliable liver stiffness measurements (LSM), blood parameters and gastroscopy were retrospectively recruited from a multinational cohort. The performance of Baveno-VI (LSM > 20kPa and platelet count < 150,000/mm3) and expanded Baveno-VI criteria (LSM > 25kPa or platelet count < 110,000/mm3) was assessed to detect VNTs as well as any EVs. This performance was compared with the Baveno-VII possible CSPH criteria (LSM ≥ 15 kPa and platelet ≤ 150,000/mm3) to evaluate its utility in detecting any EVs.

RESULTS

Patients with cACLD (n = 1200) of predominantly viral etiology (hepatitis B virus, 269; hepatitis C virus, 564; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, 145; alcoholic liver disease, 130; other, 92) were included. Any EVs and VNTs were present in 514 (42.8%) and 70 (5.8%) patients, respectively. The Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI and Baveno-VII criteria missed 29/514 (5.6%), 115/514 (22.4%) and 19/514 (3.7%) patients with any EVs, respectively, whereas they misclassified 517/686 (75.4%), 211/686 (30.8%) and 598/686 (87.4%) patients with no EVs as having a high risk of EVs. The Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI and possible CSPH criteria missed 3/70 (4.3%), 15/70 (21.4%) and 0/70 (0%) VNTs, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Both original Baveno-VI and Baveno-VII criteria were highly sensitive in detecting varices in cACLD, albeit with high misclassification rates.

Hepatic artery diameter predicts bleeding risk after gastroesophageal varices treatment: a contrast-enhanced CT study

OBJECTIVE

Portal hypertension leads to hepatic artery dilatation and a higher risk of bleeding. We tried to identify the bleeding risk after gastroesophageal varices (GOV) treatment using hepatic artery diameter of contrast-enhanced CT.

METHODS

Retrospective retrieval of 258 patients with cirrhosis who underwent contrast-enhanced CT from January 2022 to May 2023 and endoscopy within one month thereafter at Hainan Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University. Cirrhotic patients before GOV treatment were used as the test cohort (n = 199), and cirrhotic patients after GOV treatment were used as the validation cohort (n = 59). The grading and bleeding risk was classified according to the endoscopic findings. Arterial-phase images of contrast-enhanced CT were used for coronal reconstruction, and the midpoint diameter of the hepatic artery was measured on coronal images. The optimal cutoff value for identifying bleeding risk was analyzed and calculated in the test cohort, and its diagnostic performance was evaluated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the test cohort, hepatic artery diameters were significantly higher in high-risk GOV than in low-risk GOV [4.69 (4.31, 5.56) vs. 3.10 (2.59, 3.77), P < 0.001]. With a hepatic artery diameter cutoff value of 4.06 mm, the optimal area under the operating characteristic curve was 0.940 (95% confidence interval: 0.908-0.972), with a sensitivity of 0.887, a specificity of 0.892, a positive predictive value of 0.904, and a negative predictive value of 0.874 for identifying bleeding risk in the test cohort, while in the validation cohort, the sensitivity was 0.885, specificity was 0.939, positive predictive value was 0.920, and negative predictive value was 0.912.

CONCLUSION

Hepatic artery diameter has high diagnostic performance in identifying bleeding risk after GOV treatment.

The Prediction and Treatment of Bleeding Esophageal Varices in the Artificial Intelligence Era: A Review

Esophageal varices (EVs), a significant complication of cirrhosis, present a considerable challenge in clinical practice due to their high risk of bleeding and associated morbidity and mortality. This manuscript explores the transformative role of artificial intelligence (AI) in the management of EV, particularly in enhancing diagnostic accuracy and predicting bleeding risks. It underscores the potential of AI in offering noninvasive, efficient alternatives to traditional diagnostic methods such as esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). The complexity of EV management is highlighted, necessitating a multidisciplinary approach that includes pharmacological therapy, endoscopic interventions, and, in some cases, surgical options tailored to individual patient profiles. Additionally, the paper emphasizes the importance of integrating AI into medical education and practice, preparing healthcare professionals for the evolving landscape of medical technology. It projects a future where AI significantly influences the management of gastrointestinal bleeding, improving clinical decision-making, patient outcomes, and overall healthcare efficiency. The study advocates for a patient-centered approach in healthcare, balancing the incorporation of innovative technologies with ethical principles and the diverse needs of patients to optimize treatment efficacy and enhance healthcare accessibility.

THE ROLE OF ELASTOGRAPHY IN CLINICALLY SIGNIFICANT PORTAL HYPERTENSION

• In compensated cirrhosis, using non-invasive methods would exempt the patient from the need of an endoscopy. • The Baveno VII presented the "rule of 5" for Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography; liver stiffness measurement ≤15 kPa and platelets >150.000/mm3 exclude clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), while when ≥25 kPa is highly suggestive of CSPH. • Spleen stiffness measurement has been proposed as a more specific technique to predict the presence of CSPH. • Elastography has gained prestige in the non-invasive evaluation of patients with advanced chronic liver disease by allowing prophylactic measures to be taken when suggesting the presence of CSPH. This is a narrative review that aims to discuss the importance of elastographic methods in the evaluation of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in cirrhotic patients, where the authors propose an algorithm for evaluating these patients. In compensated advanced chronic liver disease, the goal is to prevent the development of CSPH and, in those already with CSPH, prevent the appearance of gastroesophageal varices (GEV) and other complications of portal hypertension. In compensated cirrhosis, the prevalence of GEV is 30-40%, of which 10-20% are at risk of bleeding. Therefore, using non-invasive methods would exempt the patient from the need of an endoscopy. Hepatic Elastography is a non-invasive, safe, reproducible method, available through many techniques: Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography (VCTE), Shear Wave Elastography (SWE) and Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE). The Baveno VII presented the "rule of 5" for VCTE: liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≤15 kPa and platelets >150.000/mm3 exclude CSPH, while an LSM ≥25 kPa is highly suggestive of CSPH. Also, the "rule of 4" for SWE has been proposed: patients with ≥17 kPa could be considered as having CSPH. At last, spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) has been proposed as a more specific technique to predict the presence of CSPH. In conclusion, elastography has gained prestige in the non-invasive evaluation of patients with advanced chronic liver disease by allowing prophylactic measures to be taken when suggesting the presence of CSPH.

Predicting the Severity of Esophageal Varices in Patients with Hepatic Cirrhosis Using Non-Invasive Markers

Background

The presence and extent of severity of esophageal varices (EV) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) are predicted using noninvasive clinical, biochemical, and imaging parameters. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of noninvasive predictors of EV, such as the platelet count-to-spleen diameter ratio (PSR), platelet count-to-spleen volume ratio (PSVR), spleen size (SZ), and a combination of these markers in determining the severity of EV in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

We recruited 82 inpatients with LC from the Department of Gastroenterology at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University between January 2018 and December 2019 for this diagnostic investigation. All patients underwent endoscopy, ultrasound, computed tomography, and routine laboratory investigations. For the study, we evaluated and compared the diagnostic accuracy of PSR, PSVR, SZ, and their combinations.

Results

There were significant differences in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the prediction of severe and moderate/severe EV for all the variables. PSR+PSVR had the highest AUC at 0.735 (95% CI: 0.626-0.826) and 0.765 (95% CI: 0.659-0.852) for predicting severe and moderate/severe EV, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in the AUCs (95% CI) for PSR, PSVR, and PSR+PSVR in predicting the existence of EV. As per the overall model quality chart, the combination of PSR+PSVR was the best indicator for detecting the presence of EV (AUC, 0.696; 95% CI: 0.584-0.792).

Conclusion

In our study, we found that these noninvasive parameters could predict the extent of severity of EV in patients with LC. We anticipate the use of a combination of PSR + PSVR to emerge as the superior indicator as studies progress.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Portal Vein Flow Velocity for Esophageal Varices in Cirrhotic Patients

Background Variceal bleeding is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. Traditionally, endoscopy has been utilized as a preferred modality for the detection and grading of esophageal varices. However, endoscopy is an invasive procedure and may not be readily available in resource-limited settings. To overcome this limitation, various non-invasive tests, including Doppler ultrasonography (DUS) with portal vein (PV) velocity measurement, have been investigated to predict the presence of esophageal varices (EV). This study aimed to evaluate the potential utility of portal vein flow velocity (PVFV) as a non-invasive alternative to endoscopic screening for predicting the presence of esophageal varices among cirrhotic patients. Methodology This validation cross-sectional study was carried out at the Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Pakistan Kidney and Liver Institute & Research Centre (PKLI&RC), Lahore, Pakistan from June 8, 2022, to March 8, 2023. Cirrhotic patients were enrolled based on clinical, laboratory, and radiological assessments. Doppler ultrasonography was performed to measure portal vein flow velocity along other relevant indices. Subsequently, all patients underwent endoscopic evaluation to screen and grade the esophageal varices. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify significant clinical predictors of EV based on the results of the independent sample t-tests or Mann-Whitney U tests. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to determine the optimal cut-off value for portal vein flow velocity (PVFV). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and diagnostic accuracy were calculated based on the identified cut-off value. A p-value ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results A cohort of 137 cirrhotic patients was enrolled. The study population consisted of 92 males (67.2%) and 45 females (32.8%). Endoscopic screening confirmed the presence of esophageal varices in 81 patients (59.91%). A multivariate analysis revealed that aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) (p=0.008) and portal vein flow velocity (p=0.001) were significant factors associated with esophageal varices and were used for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for PVFV was 0.981, and for APRI, it was 0.711. At a cut-off value of 18 cm/sec for PVFV, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and diagnostic accuracy for esophageal varices were found to be 93.83%, 92.86%, 95%, 91.23%, and 93.43%, respectively. Conclusion Measurement of portal vein flow velocity using Doppler ultrasonography (DUS) is a reliable screening method for predicting the presence of esophageal varices (EV) in patients with liver cirrhosis. DUS offers several advantages, including its non-invasive nature, cost-effectiveness, and widespread availability, making it a recommended approach due to its high diagnostic accuracy.

Performance of machine learning techniques on prediction of esophageal varices grades among patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

All patients with cirrhosis should be periodically examined for esophageal varices (EV), however, a large percentage of patients undergoing screening, do not have EV or have only mild EV and do not have high-risk characteristics. Therefore, developing a non-invasive method to predict the occurrence of EV in patients with liver cirrhosis as a non-invasive method with high accuracy seems useful. In the present research, we compared the performance of several machine learning (ML) methods to predict EV on laboratory and clinical data to choose the best model.

METHODS

Four-hundred-and-ninety data from the Liver and Gastroenterology Research Center of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in the period 2014-2021, were analyzed applying models including random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and logistic regression.

RESULTS

RF and SVM had the best results in general for all grades of EV. RF showed remarkably better results and the highest area under the curve (AUC). After that, SVM and ANN had the AUC of 98%, for grade 3, the SVM algorithm had the highest AUC after RF (89%).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings may help to better predict EV with high precision and accuracy and also can help reduce the burden of frequent visits to endoscopic centers. It can also help practitioners to manage cirrhosis by predicting EV with lower costs.

Establishment of a non-invasive prediction model for the risk of oesophageal variceal bleeding using radiomics based on CT

AIM

To establish a non-invasive prediction model for the risk of oesophageal variceal bleeding (OVB) using radiomics based on computed tomography (CT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included 317 patients, 69 of whom were OVB-positive and 248 were OVB-negative. The OVB was caused by cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B. All patients underwent both oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) and triple-phase contrast-enhanced CT with spectral imaging mode within 14 days before OGD. The patients were divided chronologically into training (n=222) and validation (n=95) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The clinical and CT features were collected from a picture archiving and communication system, and radiomics features were extracted from the portal venous phase CT. Spearman's correlation, least absolute shrinkage, and selection operator regression analyses were used to select the most correlated features. Models were built using the selected features. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

One clinical feature, five CT features, and three radiomics features were selected, and three non-invasive models were built. Integration of the radiomics, CT, and clinical features model showed a better performance in predicting the risk of OVB, with an AUC of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.94) in the training dataset and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87) in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSION

The combination of radiomics, CT, and clinical features may have added value in the non-invasive prediction of OVB, enabling early prevention and treatment.

Validation of the EVendo score for the prediction of varices in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Screening endoscopy for varices may be deferred when the calculated EVendo score is ≤3.90. This novel score has not been validated in an external cohort. This study aimed to assess the performance of the EVendo score and compare it with the Baveno VI criteria.

METHODS

We identified and calculated this score in all cirrhotic patients who underwent screening endoscopy for the first time with laboratory tests and liver stiffness measurements within 6 months of the endoscopy date.

RESULTS

In total, 103 patients were included. An EVendo score of ≤3.90 identified patients with no gastroesophageal varices (GEV) and varices needing treatment (VNT) with sensitivities of 82% and 83% and specificities of 57% and 34%, respectively. The negative predictive value for VNT was 94%. A comparison with the Baveno VI criteria in Child-Turcotte-Pugh-A patients showed spared endoscopy and missed VNT rates with EVendo score cutoffs of ≤3.9 and ≤4.5 and the Baveno VI criteria of 25%, 33%, and 16.6% and 1.7%, 1.7%, and 0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

EVendo score is reliable in clinical practice for predicting GEV and VNT. The number of spared endoscopies was higher than that with the Baveno VI criteria; however, there were more missed VNT cases.

Primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis: A comparison of different strategies

Patients with cirrhosis and esophageal varices bleed at a yearly rate of 5%-15%, and, when variceal hemorrhage develops, mortality reaches 20%. Patients are deemed at high risk of bleeding when they present with medium or large-sized varices, when they have red signs on varices of any size and when they are classified as Child-Pugh C and have varices of any size. In order to avoid variceal bleeding and death, individuals with cirrhosis at high risk of bleeding must undergo primary prophylaxis, for which currently recommended strategies are the use of traditional non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) (i.e., propranolol or nadolol), carvedilol (a NSBB with additional alpha-adrenergic blocking effect) or endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL). The superiority of one of these alternatives over the others is controversial. While EVL might be superior to pharmacological therapy regarding the prevention of the first bleeding episode, either traditional NSBBs or carvedilol seem to play a more prominent role in mortality reduction, probably due to their capacity of preventing other complications of cirrhosis through the decrease in portal hypertension. A sequential strategy, in which patients unresponsive to pharmacological therapy would be submitted to endoscopic treatment, or the combination of pharmacological and endoscopic strategies might be beneficial and deserve further investigation.

Identification of potential metabolic biomarkers in predicting esophageal varices needing treatment in patients with liver cirrhosis

The goal of this study was to determine the diagnostic performance of in vivo quantitative proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H-MRS) to identify the presence of esophageal varices needing treatment (VNT), as well as investigate its correlation with clinical characteristics in patients with liver cirrhosis. Forty cirrhotic patients without VNT showing the negative red color sign, and 40 cirrhotic patients with VNT showing positive red color sign underwent laboratory tests, esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy, and ¹H-MRS with single-voxel localization in the cirrhotic liver parenchyma. The levels of lactate + triglyceride (TG) and choline in cirrhotic patients with VNT were significantly higher than those in cirrhotic patients without VNT. In multivariate analysis, spleen diameter, platelet count, and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, as well as lactate + TG, and choline were associated with the presence of VNT. Moreover, lactate + TG and choline levels were positively correlated with spleen diameter and negatively correlated with platelet count in the combined group of cirrhotic patients with and without VNT. Our study demonstrated that higher hepatic lactate + TG and choline levels in cirrhotic patients in conjunction with longer spleen diameter, lower platelet counts, and lower ratios of platelet count to spleen diameter were associated with the presence of esophageal VNT and the risk of developing variceal bleeding. Therefore, in vivo ¹H-MRS might be an effective tool for diagnosing and predicting esophageal VNT in patients with liver cirrhosis.

The Combination of Shear Wave Elastography and Platelet Counts Can Effectively Predict High-Risk Varices in Patients with Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

Background

Baveno VI criteria, based on liver stiffness (LS) measured by transient elastography and platelet counts (PLT), have been proposed to avoid unnecessary endoscopy screening for high-risk varices (HRVs). However, the cut-off value of LS measured by 2D-SWE and PLT to predict HRVs in compensated hepatitis B-related cirrhotic patients remains unknown.

Aims

To prospectively analyze the cut-off of the combination of LS measured by 2D-SWE and PLT in predicting HRVs and the influence of antiviral therapies in its efficacy.

Methods

Serum parameters, LS, and endoscopy results were obtained from 160 compensated hepatitis B-related cirrhotic patients. The accuracy of the combined algorithm was assessed in the whole cohort and subgroups with or without consecutive antiviral therapies in the past 6 months.

Results

In the whole cohort, the optimal cut-off value of LS for HRVs was 14.5 kPa. Patients with a LS value < 14.5 kPa with a PLT value > 110 × 10⁹/L can be excluded from HRVs (NPV = 0.99, endoscopy saved rates = 0.68). Conversely, a LS value of ≥14.5 kPa and a PLT value of ≤110 × 10⁹/L indicated HRVs, with accurate rates of 82.35%, and 10.63% of patients can avoid additional endoscopy screening. Moreover, antiviral therapy had no significant effect on the accuracy and rates saved from further endoscopy screening, when comparing patients with or without antiviral therapies (all p values > 0.05).

Conclusions

The combination of LS (14.5 kPa) measured by 2D-SWE and PLT (110 × 10⁹/L) can predict HRVs accurately in compensated hepatitis B-related cirrhotic patients without significant interference of antiviral therapy histories.

Validation of original, expanded Baveno VI, and stepwise & platelet-MELD criteria to rule out varices needing treatment in compensated cirrhosis from various etiologies

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Baveno VI criteria to rule out varices needing treatment (VNT) was introduced in 2015. Soon after, the expanded Baveno VI and stepwise platelet-MELD criteria were proposed to be equal/more accurate in ruling out VNT; however, neither has been widely validated. We aimed to validate all 3 criteria in compensated cirrhosis from assorted causes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study including all adult compensated cirrhotic patients who underwent endoscopic surveillance at our center from 2014 to 2018 and had transient elastography (TE), and laboratory data for criteria calculation within 6 months of endoscopies. Exclusion criteria were previous decompensation, unreliable/invalid TE results, and liver cancer. The diagnostic performances of all criteria were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 128 patients were included. The major cirrhosis etiologies were hepatitis C and B (37.5% and 32.8%, respectively). VNT was observed in 7.8%. All criteria yielded high negative predictive values (NPVs)>95%, missed VNT was observed in 2%, 2.7%, and 2.8% in the original, expanded Baveno VI, and platelet-MELD criteria, respectively. The expanded Baveno VI and the platelet-MELD criteria yielded significantly better specificities and could spare more endoscopies than the original Baveno VI criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

All 3 criteria showed satisfactorily high NPVs in ruling out VNT in compensated cirrhosis from various causes. The expanded Baveno VI and the platelet-MELD criteria could spare more endoscopies than the original Baveno VI criteria. From a public health standpoint, the platelet-MELD criteria might be useful in a resource-limited setting where TE is not widely available.